Wisconsin takes on No. 3 Ohio State in the prime-time Big Ten opener for both teams at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio, on Saturday.
Game time is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, and it will be televised on ABC.
Wisconsin (2-1) brings the same sturdy rushing attack with coach Paul Chryst to The Shoe. The Badgers average 281.3 yards per game on the ground. Braelon Allen is one of the best running backs in the FBS. Wisconsin had a Week 2 slip-up against Washington State, and this game is another barometer to gauge the gap between the Big Ten West and Big Ten East.
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Or, more specifically, the gap with Ohio State (3-0). The Buckeyes rank 10th in the FBS with 47.7 points per game, and the defense has improved under defensive coordinator Jim Knowles at 14.3 ppg. Buckeyes coach Ryan Day has yet to lose a Big Ten home game, and quarterback C.J. Stroud, who ranks second in the FBS with a 208.6 passer rating, leads an offense flush with skill-position talent.
Chryst is 0-4 against the Buckeyes, and that includes a pair of Big Ten championship games. Here is everything you need to know about Saturday’s matchup between Ohio State and Wisconsin:
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin odds
- Spread: Ohio State -18
- Over/under: 57.5
- Moneyline: Ohio State -556, Wisconsin +400 (Caesars Sportsbook)
The line opened at -18 this week, and a few sportsbooks have it at -17.5. It’s the fourth straight double-digit spread for the Buckeyes. Both teams have hit the under twice in three games this season.
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Three trends to know
— The Buckeyes are 25-0 S/U in Big Ten home games under Day, and they have won those games by an average of 30.9 points per game. That includes a 12-0 S/U record against ranked Big Ten teams, and the average margin of victory is 24.4 ppg.
— Ohio State has won the last eight meetings with Wisconsin. The Badgers’ last win was a 31-18 prime-time victory on Oct. 16, 2010. That was a home game. Wisconsin’s last victory at Ohio Stadium was a 24-13 slugfest on Oct. 9, 2004.
— The Badgers are 5-8 S/U and 8-5 ATS as an underdog under Chryst since 2015. As a road underdog, Wisconsin is 2-4 S/U and 3-3 ATS in the same stretch.
Three things to watch
— Ohio State’s run defense. Through three weeks, the Buckeyes have allowed 84.3 rushing yards per game under Knowles, and the Buckeyes’ edge has returned on that side of the ball. There is no better way to test than against Wisconsin’s power running attack. Allen (332 yards, 5 TDs) averages 6.6 yards per carry, and he has to avoid tackles for loss from Ohio State linebackers Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers. Wisconsin will try to limit Ohio State’s possessions like Notre Dame did in Week 1, and the Badgers have a better running game than the Irish.
— Can Wisconsin keep everything in front? The Badgers allow 246 yards per game, which ranks 11th in the FBS. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard can lean on linebacker Nick Herbig, who has four sacks in the early season. The Buckeyes, however, have so much to cover. C.J. Stroud averages 313.7 yards per game with 11 TDs and no interceptions. Seven players have 130 yards of total offense through three games, and that does not include Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. This is an enhanced version of what Wisconsin saw in the two head-to-head meetings in 2019. The Badgers have interceptions in three games, and those have come from seven different players.
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— Ohio State’s running game. For all the talk about the Badgers’ running game, the Buckeyes average 207 rushing yards per game. Miyan Williams (207 yards, TD) and TreVeyon Henderson (197 yards, 3 TDs) are an effective tag team, and Dallan Hayden (121 yards, TD) had a breakout performance against Toledo in Week 3. Wisconsin allows 2.7 yards per carry. If the Badgers cannot stop Ohio State on the ground on early downs, then it is going to be a long night.
Stat that matters
If you want to win at The Shoe at night, then you need the very best effort from your quarterback. Graham Mertz doesn’t have to put up 400 yards, but he needs to be accurate in this game. Wisconsin is 13-0 when Mertz hits 60% of his passes. When that number drops below 60%, the Badgers are 4-8. That number seems like a minimum requirement in what will be Mertz’s first start against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin prediction
Who is drawing Marvin Harrison Jr. in coverage? The sophomore receiver averages 19 yards per catch with five TDs, and that was with a quiet opener against Notre Dame. Of the many mismatches Ohio State creates, this is the one that will be a problem for Wisconsin. The Badgers will have some success in the running game in the first half, but an improved Ohio State defense will force two turnovers. The home-run pass plays will follow, and Stroud will spread the TDs to Harrison, Smith-Njigba and Emeka Egbuka. It won’t be a full-fledged blowout, but the Buckeyes are good for the cover.
Final score: Ohio State 38, Wisconsin 17
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