No. 25 Oregon hosts No. 12 BYU at Autzen Stadium this afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX) in one of just two matchups between top-25 teams in Week 3. Oregon looks to get over .500 in the early season after its disappointing 49-3 loss to Georgia in Dan Lanning’s first game against his former school, while BYU has an outside chance to run the table if they’re able to notch a road victory on Saturday.
BYU narrowly defeated then No. 9 Baylor 26-20 in double overtime last week and managed to do so without their top two receivers, Gunnar Romney (undisclosed) and Puka Nacua (right ankle). Romney and Nacua are still questionable entering this week’s contest, as we’ll hopefully know more about their availability in the coming days. In their absence, freshman Chase Roberts stepped up as the Cougars leading receiver, hauling in eight passes for 122 yards and a score. Will Roberts continue to create separation downfield against the Ducks’ secondary?
UPDATE: BYU WRs Puka Nacua (ankle) is a game-time decision, while Gunnar Romney (undisclosed) is out.
Oregon put forth an effective performance in its most recent 70-14 drubbing over FCS foe Eastern Washington. While it’s nice for Lanning to notch his first win as a head coach, we still don’t know too much about the Ducks’ season-long prospects. This week’s showdown against BYU figures to be pretty telling. Can Oregon challenge USC and Utah for a Pac-12 championship?
MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING: Week 3 ATS Picks
Here’s everything to know about betting on the Week 2 matchup between the Ducks and Cougars:
Oregon vs. BYU odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
- Spread: Oregon -3.5
- Over/under: 58
- Moneyline: Oregon -165; BYU +140
After opening up as 6.5-point home favorites over the summer, the Ducks have been bet down to 3.5-point favorites. The over/under has also seen movement, ticking up to 58.
Three trends to know
— Oregon has won 20 straight home games at Autzen Stadium.
— BYU is 5-1 straight up in its past six road games.
— The Cougars are 10-3 ATS as a road underdog under head coach Kalani Sitake, according to BetQL.
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Three things to watch
— Which Bo Nix shows up: Dating back to his time at Auburn, Bo Nix has seen drastic home/road splits with a sample size big enough to believe he just performs better at home. Nix sports a career 146.6 passer rating with a 28:2 TD-to-INT rate, completing 64.6 percent of his passes at home. On the road, he’s complied a career 107.6 passer rating with a subpar 12:12 TD-to-INT rate and a 55.5-percent completion rate. Another efficient showing at home gives the Ducks a real shot to knock off BYU.
—BYU’s receiving corps: With BYU likely down their top two receivers for a second-straight week, QB Jarren Hall’s life gets that much tougher. Hall has struggled against the blitz so far this season (6.0 YPA, 81.6 passer rating), and if Oregon’s fine with letting its corners go one-on-one with BYU’s receivers, their ability to get Hall under pressure could yield a positive result for the Ducks. Chase Roberts and fellow wide receivers Keanu Hill and Kody Epps needs to step up when running routes against man coverage.
—Jarren Hall on passing downs: Hall has the ability to bail the Cougars out in obvious passing downs, but BYU’s going to want to give him favorable down and distances to set them up for manageable third-down situations. If Hall and the BYU offense are consistently put in third-and-long situations, Hall’s going to have to be close to Superman out there for BYU to matriculate the ball downfield.
Oregon vs. BYU prediction
This matchup has a good deal of uncertainty around it, and if we’re being honest, this is likely a game that’s worthwhile to sit on the sidelines and not get involved with. Being down your top two receivers didn’t come into play last week for BYU, but it will this week. While we’re big fans of Jarren Hall’s game, ultimately the Ducks come up with a big play down the stretch en route to a home win and cover.
Prediction: Oregon 30, BYU 24. Oregon (-3.5) covers the spread with the game going UNDER the total (58).
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