The future of the Pac-12 is uncertain after USC and UCLA announced on June 30 they would be leaving the conference for the Big Ten.
The Trojans and Bruins will leave a big hole when they do exit in 2024, but in the present they are among the teams that will try to break the conference’s College Football Playoff drought. Washington was the last Pac-12 team to reach the CFP in 2016, and the conference’s 4-8 record in New Year’s Day Six bowls is the worst among Power 5 conferences.
Utah and Oregon are the favorites in the conference again, and they have huge games in Week 1 against SEC opponents. The Utes travel to Florida, and the Ducks play defending national champion Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game in Atlanta.
MORE: SEC predictions | Big 12 predictions | Big Ten predictions | 2022 All-America team
USC and Washington have new coaches. Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma to join the Trojans, and star quarterback Caleb Williams followed. Washington hired Kalen DeBoer after a 4-8 season in which Jimmy Lake was fired. A few transfer quarterbacks could stand out across the league in 2022.
The Pac-12 scrapped divisions; the new wrinkle will allow the two teams with the highest winning percentage to play in the Pac-12 championship game. Here is a closer look at the Pac-12, with predictions, big games, Heisman contenders and more:
2022 Pac-12 predicted order of finish
Pac-12
- Utah
- USC
- Oregon
- UCLA
- Oregon State
- Washington State
- Washington
- Arizona State
- Cal
- Stanford
- Arizona
- Colorado
Utah and USC are going to be 1-2 across most predictions, and with good reason. The Utes and Trojans have each won the Pac-12 South three times in the last seven seasons. This is our predicted championship game.
The Oregon-Oregon State rivalry continues to heat up. The Beavers won the last meeting in Corvallis, Ore., in 2020, and Jonathan Smith is hoping to build off the program’s first winning season since 2013.
UCLA is a popular sleeper, and it’s go-time for Chip Kelly. The schedule is set up for a 4-0 start, and they have Washington, Utah and USC at the Rose Bowl.
DeBoer had a 12-6 record at Fresno State and could flip the Huskies quicker than expected. The Cougars will build with Jake Dickert, who replaced Nick Rolovich last season and brought in Incarnate Word transfer Cameron Ward at quarterback. Stanford has a 11-19 record the last three seasons, which is 11th across the conference.
Arizona State finished 8-5 last season, but there is pressure on Herm Edwards. Florida transfer Emory Jones and Wyoming transfer Xazavian Valladay, who rushed for 1,063 yards on 5.1 yards per carry last season, make up the new backfield. Arizona is 5-24 the last three seasons.
Pac-12 top storyline: Will USC make the CFP?
Lincoln Riley went 55-10 and made three straight playoff appearances at Oklahoma from 2017-19 before leaving after the 2021 season.
Star power has followed him to USC. Caleb Williams transferred from Oklahoma. He passed for 1,912 yards, 21 TDs and four interceptions last season. Travis Dye was Oregon’s leading rusher with 1,271 yards and 16 TDs. The topper was Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison, who transferred from Pitt in the spring. The Trojans are loaded at the skill positions, and Riley will be under scrutiny given how he departed Oklahoma.
MORE: Will Alabama, Ohio State go wire-to-wire as Nos. 1 and 2?
All that has made the Trojans a popular pick to win the Pac-12, but it won’t be easy. The Trojans have road games at Stanford, which blasted USC 42-28 last season, not to mention Utah and UCLA. The finale against Notre Dame could generate a ton of hype, but the rivals have a long road to get there.
Still, USC is a program that went 22-21 the last four seasons. If Riley flips this into a Pac-12 championship team in one season, then that would be more than enough to meet the hype.
Impact freshmen
Josh Conerly Jr., T, Oregon
Conerly (Rainer Beach, Seattle) is a massive 6-5, 283-pound tackle that stayed close to home with the Ducks. He gives new coach Dan Lanning a piece to build future offensive lines around, and he could work into the rotation with an experienced line this season.
Domani Jackson, CB, USC
While the attention is on the offense, Jackson (Mater Dei, Santa Ana, Calif.) is a five-star talent who will challenge for immediate playing time with the Trojans in defensive coordinator Alex Grinch’s new-look scheme. Jackson should help a defense that compiled 14 interceptions last season.
Impact transfers
Jayden de Laura, QB, Arizona
Jeff Fisch has a full-scale makeover in progress at Arizona, but it doesn’t hurt to have the Pac-12’s leader in TD passes last season joining the team. Jayden de Laura, who played at Washington State last season, brings a play-making presence to an offense that averaged just 17.2 points per game last season.
Emory Jones, QB, Arizona State
Jones played in 37 games with Florida the last four seasons, and he gives the Sun Devils an experienced option at the position. He rushed for 759 yards last season, but he struggled with interceptions. He’s an interesting fit in Edwards’ offense.
Jack Plummer, QB, Cal
The Bears need more production at the quarterback position, and Plummer had 26 TDs and 10 interceptions at Purdue the last three seasons. He’s battling for the starting job but could push Cal toward a bowl berth if he wins the job.
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Nix made his first career start against Oregon in 2019. Now, he’s in line to be the Ducks’ starting quarterback with a talented set of skill-position players around him. Nix finished with 2,294 yards, 11 TDs and three interceptions, but the key will be how much he improves on a 59.4% career completion percentage.
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Injuries have hindered what has been a promising career at times for Penix, who had a breakout season with Indiana in 2020. Penix has to hold off Dylan Morris and Sam Huard for the starting job, but the graduate transfer should be able to keep that spot for the Huskies.
Cameron Ward, QB, Washington State
Ward put together an impressive two-year career at Incarnate Word in the FCS. He won the Jerry Rice Award as a freshman and had 4,648 passing yards, 47 TDs and 10 interceptions as a sophomore. Offensive coordinator Eric Morris, Ward’s coach at Incarnate Word, joined Jake Dickert’s staff at Washington State. That pairing should pan out.
Heisman hopefuls
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Williams has true superstar power, which he flashed in bunches at Oklahoma once he took over the job last season. He averaged 9.2 yards per pass attempt and 5.6 yards per carry, and he is more familiar with Riley’s offense around a tremendous set of playmakers at USC. Williams did have ups and downs, but he doesn’t turn the ball over often. Oregon’s Marcus Mariota (2014) is the last player from the conference to win the award. Williams can challenge Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud to be the nation’s top quarterback.
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Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Addison led the FBS in TD catches with 17 last season, and he finished third in yards (1,479) and seventh in receptions (93). He’s an all-around talent who joins the high-powered offense at USC, and he should emerge as a favorite target for Williams. Marqise Lee finished fourth in the Heisman voting for USC in 2012. Addison could make a run at that.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, UCLA
Robinson is back at UCLA, and he is coming off an efficient season in which he passed for 2,409 yards, 21 TDs and six interceptions. He averaged a career-best 8.5 yards per attempt, and Zach Charbonnet is a good running mate in the backfield. Thompson-Robinson is 3-7 against ranked teams as a starter. That needs to change for that long-awaited Bruins break-through.
Pac-12’s biggest games of 2022
1. USC at Utah (Oct. 15)
The Trojans have road games at Stanford and Oregon State before this, but a 6-0 start isn’t out of the question under Riley. The Trojans are 2-3 at Rice-Eccles Stadium since the Utes joined the Pac-12. This could be a feature prime-time game that sets tone for the second half of the season.
2. Utah at Oregon (Nov. 19)
This has been the marquee game in the Pac-12 for the last few seasons. They have split eight meetings in the CFP era, and that includes a pair of Pac-12 championship games. Utah swept a pair of blowouts last season. What will the Ducks’ response be? Will this be the first of two matchups again?
3. USC at UCLA (Nov. 19)
The other huge game that day – albeit a future Big Ten clash. The Bruins and Trojans have split the last four meetings since Chip Kelly arrived at UCLA, and Riley’s presence adds a new wrinkle to a classic rivalry that needs a jump-start. Both teams haven’t been ranked in this game since 2014.
4. Oregon at Oregon State (Nov. 24)
In-state rivals collide with possible Pac-12 title implications. The Ducks and Beavers have split the last two meetings, and this is one of those Black Friday appetizers you won’t want to miss on Rivalry Week.
5. Oregon at Washington State (Sept. 24)
It’s the Ducks’ Pac-12 opener, and there is excitement around Ward in Pullman. The Cougars have won two of the last home meetings against the Ducks, and this feels like it could be a must-see “Pac-12 After Dark” high-scoring affair.
Pac-12 stat that matters
Oregon is 22-1 at Autzen Stadium since 2018, and Utah is 20-2 at Rice-Eccles Stadium in the same four-year stretch. Those are distinct home-field advantages and a huge reason why the Ducks and Utes each have three division championships in the last four years. Utah plays USC at home, but the Utes have to go to Autzen Stadium on Nov. 19. The Ducks do not play the Trojans in the regular season. This could be a separator, especially if the home-field advantage holds up.
Pac-12 champion: Utah
Despite that tough opener and schedule quirk, the Utes remain the most-balanced team in the Pac-12. The running game will be strong, and Rising should improve his NFL stock with each game. Linebackers Mohamoud Diabate, a Florida transfer; and freshman Lander Barton are part of what should be an improved defense. The question is whether the Utes can beat Florida in the opener and position the conference for that long-awaited CFP return.
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