The Packers will not be winning a fourth consecutive NFC North title in 2022. After going 13-3, 13-3 and 13-4 the previous three seasons under coach Matt LaFleur, the best Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay can finish this season is 11-6.
At 4-6, they’re tied for ninth in the NFC playoff race after Week 10 and hold the same record as the Falcons and Cardinals. Although they trail the 8-1 Vikings — to whom they lost in Minnesota in Week 1 — by 4.5 games in the division standings, the Packers are only 1.5 games behind the No. 7-seed 49ers (5-4).
Here’s looking at how Green Bay can still secure at least the third wild-card spot in the NFC playoffs:
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Can the Packers still make the playoffs?
Packers keep on winning vs. a tough schedule
Green Bay ended a shocking five-game losing streak by rallying to beat Dallas in overtime at Lambeau Field. It must maintain that momentum against another playoff-caliber team, AFC South-leading Tennessee, on Thursday night at home to begin Week 11.
At most, the Packers can lose only one more game. A 10-7 record still may not be enough to make the playoffs; 9-8 will not be.
The degree of difficulty rises again in Week 12 with a trip to 8-1 Philadelphia before Green Bay goes to Chicago in Week 13 ahead of a Week 14 bye. The reeling Rams come to Lambeau in Week 15 before the Packers finish with the Dolphins (7-3), Vikings and Lions.
Green Bay is capable of beating (or losing to) anyone at this point. It has three quality wins — over Tampa Bay, New England and Dallas — among its four total. But before the Packers can scoreboard-watch, they need to take care of business.
The Packers need someone to fade hard in the NFC East or NFC West
The Eagles, Vikings and Buccaneers are all headed toward being division winners. The NFC West lead belongs to the Seahawks, but it’s down to a half-game over the 49ers and San Francisco currently holds a head-to-head tiebreaker. The Packers don’t play either team this season.
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The Packers do play the entire NFC East this year, but unfortunately for them, they fell to the Giants (7-2) and Commanders (5-5) before beating the Cowboys (6-3).
The Commanders are hot, having won four of their past five games, and they have two more favorable spots upcoming against the Texans and Falcons. But they still need to play the Giants twice and the Cowboys one more time. In between, they also have a trip to the 49ers.
Green Bay would need to finish one game ahead of Washington. That’s where New York and Dallas can help big time. It also needs Seattle or San Francisco to fade and finish with nine or 10 wins. The Giants are too far ahead for the top wild card, up 3.5 games and a head-to-head tiebreaker on the Packers. So if it’s not the Seahawks or 49ers crashing, then it would need to be Cowboys, given the Packers are guaranteed the head-to-head tiebreaker there.
The Packers are a playoff long shot, no matter what
Given how well the Giants are playing, only the Nos. 6 and 7 seeds are available for the Packers. There’s a good chance the NFC playoff field already has its teams, with only reshuffling left for the two West teams and three East teams.
The Packers have dug themselves a massive hole. There are ascending teams in front of them in the 49ers and Commanders, and there are two teams even with them in the Falcons and Cardinals that can’t be ruled out for wild-card runs.
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Green Bay doesn’t control much anymore with its dramatic fall from powerhouse to near also-ran. The team is also dealing with key injuries and has little margin for error during games.
Rodgers and the running game can try to stay hot and carry the team, but it’s much more likely that the Packers are already virtually eliminated and need to think about getting right for 2023.
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