The Patriots look to remain above .500 as they host the second-place Jets in an AFC East matchup in Week 11 (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Both teams enter Week 11 off byes and meet for the final time in the regular season after the Patriots secured a 22-17 road victory over the Jets in Week 8.
The last time these teams were in action, the Jets claimed one of the bigger upsets of the season, knocking off the then AFC East-leading Bills 20-17, winning outright as 11-point home underdogs. In the win, the Jets’ defense showcased why it’s one of the better units in the league, picking off Josh Allen two times and limiting him to just 205 yards passing while sacking him five times. The Jets’ offense leaned on their running game, as RBs Michael Carter and James Robinson churned out 124 rushing yards to win the time of possession battle 32:34 to 27:16.
New England’s most recent contest resulted in a 26-3 drubbing over the Jeff Saturday-less Colts, a loss that ended Frank Reich’s reign as coach in Indianapolis. New England’s defense flew around all afternoon, holding the Colts to 143 total yards on 2.0 yards per play. Mac Jones and the offense didn’t have to do much to outscore the Colts, as they generated just 203 total yards on 3.3 yards per play. Can the Patriots continue to rely on their defense to carry the weight and keep them in the playoff hunt?
WEEK 11 NFL PICKS: Against the Spread | Straight up
For those looking for a play, we’ll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Patriots-Jets, including the updated odds from BetMGM, tips, and our prediction for this Week 11 divisional clash.
Patriots vs. Jets odds for NFL Week 11
- Spread: Patriots -3.5 (-105); Jets +3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 38
- Moneyline: Patriots -175; Jets +145
New England sat as 5.5-point favorites on the look-ahead line but has since been bet down to 3.5-point home chalk. The total’s also seen some movement after opening at 39.5, dropping down 1.5 points to 38. Back in Week 8, New England closed as three-point favorites with a 39.5 total, so despite the home-field shift, there hasn’t been much of an alteration in the game’s projection.
MORE WEEK 11 NFL: Odds, spreads
Patriots vs. Jets all-time series
The Patriots lead the all-time series over the Jets with a 72-54-1 overall record. New England’s dominated the series over the past two decades and enters Sunday’s matchup on a 13-game winning streak against the Jets. New York’s last win over New England came back in December 2015 when the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Jets notched a 26-20 overtime victory on a game-winning touchdown strike to Eric Decker.
Three trends to know
— Along with riding a 13-game win streak in the head-to-head series, the Patriots have won the past 11 home meetings against the Jets.
— Four of the Jets’ past five games have gone under the total, which makes sense given their solid defense and subpar offense.
— According to BetQL, the Jets have gone 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in their past six games, with the lone blemish coming in Week 8’s 22-17 loss to the Patriots.
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Three things to watch for
Zach Wilson under pressure
To say that Wilson’s struggled when pressured this season is an understatement. Per PFF, Wilson has completed just 11-of-52 pass attempts with a 1:5 TD-to-INT rate and a 6.6 passer rating under pressure this season. He’s also committed 10 turnover-worthy plays, sporting a 21.0 offense grade on 3.0 yards per attempt. If New England’s pass rush can get home against the Jets offensive line, another rough showing from Wilson could be in the cards.
Can the Patriots win the turnover battle again?
In the Patriots’ Week 8 win, their ability to generate pressure forced Zach Wilson to throw three interceptions and ended the game with a plus-two turnover margin. Wilson’s interceptions gave New England a solid starting field position, and while their offense mostly stalled out for field goals, another game in which New England wins the turnover battle puts it in a solid spot to sweep the regular season series.
Will either offense end the game with a positive EPA/play?
Back in Week 8, neither offense was efficient. Per rbsdm.com, both offenses ended the game with a -0.13 EPA/play (24th percentile) with Mac Jones (-0.04 EPA/play) and Zach Wilson (-0.06 EPA/play) doing little to help their respective offenses. A late garbage-time touchdown from Wilson made the final score seem a bit closer, but after a slow first half, New England’s defense dominated the final 30 minutes of play. Will either offense be able to make adjustments with an extra week of prep time, churning out successful drives to end the game with a positive EPA/play?
Stat that matters
4.7 That was Mac Jones’ aDoT in Week 8, putting his performance in the fourth percentile among QBs. Despite the Patriots’ leaving MetLife Stadium as victors, they were outgained 387-288 and averaged only 3.8 yards per play. A sound performance from New England’s defense didn’t force Jones to be on his A-game, but sporting that low of an aDoT going forward is likely going to result in more Ls than Ws for the Patriots.
Patriots vs. Jets prediction
New England’s offensive scheme has taken a step back this season, and Zach Wilson needs to show more as a passer. The current total of 38.5 points indicates a game in which offense is hard to come by, and we’re likely in for another lower-scoring affair. The Jets getting to 17 points in the first meeting was a bit fluky considering it was dependent on explosive plays that likely aren’t sustainable, but their defense is good enough to keep them within striking distance. With the spread sitting at a field goal, we’ll actually back the Patriots to notch the cover in yet another low-scoring contest, as we trust Jones a bit more than Wilson at the moment.
PREDICTION: Patriots 21, Jets 17. New England (-3.5) covers the spread with the game going UNDER the total (38).
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