No. 17 Pittsburgh hosts No. 24 Tennessee at Acrisure Stadium on Saturday afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC) in one of just three battles of top-25 teams this weekend. Both squads enter Week 2 with a 1-0 record after Pittsburgh narrowly defeated West Virginia 38-31 and Tennessee took care of Ball State 59-10. Tennessee covered their spread as 36-point favorites, but Pittsburgh (-7.5) failed to cover in Week 1.
These two schools also met last season in Week 2 when Pittsburgh left Neyland Stadium as 41-34 victor thanks to an efficient game from QB Kenny Pickett (24-of-36 passing, 285 yards, three total TDs). Tennessee’s defense had trouble limiting Pickett’s big-play ability and is fortunate he’s since moved on to the NFL.
It’s also worth noting Tennessee rolled out their now second-string QB, Joe Milton, in that game, as Hendon Hooker was yet to take over as QB1. Hooker’s stability running the Tennessee offense in 2022 gives the Volunteers a real shot to get revenge on the Panthers
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Pittsburgh QB Kedon Slovis will make his second start under center for the Panthers. Despite Pitt employing a run-first approach in the first half last week, Slovis finished with a solid stat line, completing 16-of-24 passes for 308 with one TD once offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti allowed Slovis to let it loose. Will Slovis get to air the football out or will Pittsburgh prefer to establish the run?
Here’s everything to know about betting on the Week 2 matchup between the Panthers and Volunteers:
Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
- Spread: Tennessee -6
- Over/under: 67
- Moneyline: Tennessee -240; Pittsburgh +196
After opening up as 2.5-point road favorites over the summer, the Volunteers have been bet up to 6-point road chalk. The over/under has also seen some movement, ticking up to 67 from 64.
Three trends to know
— The OVER has hit in Tennessee’s past seven games.
— Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its past six games as an underdog.
— Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel is just 6-18 ATS during his career after his team scored at least 42 points the previous week, according to BetQL.
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Three things to watch
— Pittsburgh’s offense on early downs: Pittsburgh ended last week with a 60-percent first down run rate in Cignetti’s first game as offensive coordinator. Considering Pittsburgh returned all five starters on the offensive line and has two solid running backs in Rodney Hammond and Israel Abanikanda, employing a run-first mindset seemed like a worthwhile strategy. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh was largely ineffective on the ground, rushing for 76 total yards on 38 carries. With Tennessee’s explosive offense looming on the opposite sideline, it might be wiser for Cignetti to let Slovis operate out of the shotgun and throw more on early downs, especially if Tennessee is going to send an extra man or two inside the box.
—Tennessee’s playmakers on the outside: Tennessee knew they had a bona fide No. 1 receiver in Cedric Tillman, but outside of the 6-3 wideout, who would emerge as Hooker’s second and third options? After last week, it seems as if juniors Jalin Hyatt and Bru McCoy are those complementary pieces, and their ability to get separation on the outside bodes well for the Volunteers’ offense against a fairly leaky Panthers’ secondary.
—’Vols pass protection against the blitz: Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Randy Bates was blitz heavy last week, sending a blitz on 47 percent of snaps. Against a more stable Tennessee offensive line, Bates doesn’t have the luxury to maintain that high of blitz rate, as Hooker posted a 139.8 passer rating with a 16:1 TD-to-INT rate on 126 dropbacks when blitzed last season.
Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee prediction
Tennessee’s offense figures to be too potent for Pittsburgh’s offense to match scores with them. The Volunteers’ uptempo attack should have its way against a Panthers’ defense that has its flaws. Pittsburgh’s offense will prefer to limit possessions by relying on the ground game, but if the Panthers trail by multiple scores early on, it’s likely they abandon the run. A Tennessee cover is correlated with this game going OVER the total, while a Pittsburgh cover will likely result in this game falling UNDER the total.
Final score: Tennessee 41, Pittsburgh 30; Tennessee (-6) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total.
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