After the midweek European cup competitions, we return to league play on Friday across Europe, South America, and Australia as a new A-League men’s season commences.
There are also a host of women’s international friendlies, but your local sportsbook may not feature all of them. The England vs. USA match from a sold-out Wembley stands out as the best match from the list.
Below we’ve highlighted the standalone games from France’s Ligue 1 and Germany’s Bundesliga.
MORE: Sporting News soccer betting guide
Olympique Lyon vs. Toulouse prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Toulouse +1 handicap
- Odds: +102 / 2.02 (Sports Interaction)
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Draw
Lyon are an absolute mess at the moment. They’ve lost each of their last four matches, scoring just two goals in the process. The attack is completely stifled, and the health of Corentin Tolisso and Moussa Dembele is up in the air.
Lyon lost 1-0 to Lens last time out, and the scoreline doesn’t do the match justice — they lost the xG battle 2.99 to 0.08.
So what happens when you put a Lyon team that suddenly can’t score against a Toulouse team that can’t defend? It’s hard to say, so we go for a safe bet and take Toulouse to keep it close throughout the match. — Kyle Bonn
* = Caesars offers the Toulouse +1.5 handicap at -150
Hoffenheim vs. Werder Bremen prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals
- Odds: +120 (Caesars)
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Werder Bremen
Put Werder Bremen’s excellent attack against Hoffenheim’s great defense and what do you get? Hopefully chaos.
Hoffenheim has only allowed eight goals this year, only two off the league’s best, while Werder Bremen’s 18 goals scored puts them second in the Bundesliga. Take a closer look, however, and this game favors the attacking side.
Based on peripherals, Hoffenheim have gotten a bit lucky, conceding their eight goals on 10.35 xGA, good for seventh in the league. Their opponents have scored under their xG total in each of their last six matches, a run which is unlikely to continue uninterrupted for too long.
Meanwhile, Werder Bremen’s matches have gone over the 3.5 total on expected goals in four of their last five games as they play an attacking brand. Niclas Fullkrug has been sensational in front of goal the last five games, and should lead the way again. — Kyle Bonn
Yesterday’s picks
Kyle’s pick of Ferencvaros to beat Red Star Belgrade was a complete flop, as the Serbian hosts won 4-1. His second came much closer to hitting, as Qarabag won emphatically, but the slumping hosts failed to score despite putting up 1.19 xG, ruining the long odds pick. A simpler selection of the visitors to win outright may have been a smarter choice.
For Simon, Union Berlin came through despite going down a man early in the match, coming away with a 1-0 win against Molde. Like Kyle, though, he also had a both teams to score (BTTS) fall short as Bodo/Glimt could not find a way through the Arsenal defense with a final chance in stoppage time cleared off the line by the Gunners.
| Picks | ✔️ or ❌ |
|---|---|
| Ferencvaros win vs. Red Star Belgrade (Bonn, +300) |
❌ |
| Qarabag to win vs. Olympiakos & BTTS (Bonn, +650) |
❌ |
| Union Berlin win vs. Molde (Borg, -105) |
✔️ |
| Arsenal vs. Bodo/Glimt BTTS (Borg, -120) |
❌ |
Soccer best bets records
Records below compiled since the first edition of this post on Monday, October 3.
| Kyle Bonn | Simon Borg | |
|---|---|---|
| Best Bets (Won-Lost-Push) |
38% (3-5-0) |
25% (2-6-0) |
| Total Units (+ Won / – Lost) |
-0.13 | -3.99 |
| Match Predictions (Correct picks) |
66% (5 of 8) |
75% (6 of 8) |
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