Thursday is usually for Europa League matches, but only one is in play today as a make-up game from a prior cancellation. Otherwise, no European matches this week.
Arsenal take on PSV in a game rescheduled from the aftermath of the death of Queen Elizabeth. They’ll meet again in a week’s time for the reverse fixture.
In the absence of European fixtures, the Premier League and La Liga take the field. While the majority of those league games took place yesterday, today still sports a few games to round out the midweek slate.
There’s also MLS Cup Playoff conference semifinal games, as well as a smattering of remaining Coppa Italia fixtures to choose from.
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LAFC vs LA Galaxy prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: LA Galaxy to win & Over 2.5 goals
- Odds: +575
- Prediction (Win/Draw): LA Galaxy
This El Trafico match is primed for a big upset as the two teams meet for just the second time ever in the MLS Cup Playoffs. While one team, LAFC, won the Supporters’ Shield with weeks to spare in the regular season, the other side is in better form. The LA Galaxy won three of their last four down the stretch as they chased a playoff spot, playing in meaningful matches the whole way through.
Deadline addition Riqui Puig has been sensational since arriving, turning around the Galaxy’s fortunes and helping Chicharito to a spike in form. LAFC, in turn, have struggled to defend, with just a single clean sheet in their last nine matches. Only one road team has ever won in this rivalry across 16 meetings in all competitions — the Galaxy did it at the Banc in August 2020 — but that’s set to take another notch. — Kyle Bonn
Leicester vs Leeds prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Leeds United to win
- Odds: +195
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Leeds United
Leeds have been incredibly unlucky over the past few weeks, with good performances against Arsenal and Brentford, both in defeat, plus a solid showing against Crystal Palace in which goalkeeper Vicente Guaita played well in goal.
Meanwhile, Leicester City are just plain poor, thumped by Tottenham and Brighton in recent weeks. They have looked slightly better in their last three matches, but all three came against lower-quality opponents. With James Maddison suspended for this match and Wilfried Ndidi still injured, Leeds could feast with their high press and dizzying pace of play. — Kyle Bonn
Arsenal vs PSV prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: 1st Half Over 1.5 goals
- Odds: +130
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Arsenal
There’s a lot riding on this game for both teams. Arsenal want to secure first place in the group and avoid the knockout playoff round in February, while PSV wants to finish as one of the top two with no drama in the final two matchdays of the group stage.
The speculation is that Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta could include first-choice players in this Europa League matchup to virtually lock up the group. Whether it’s them or the backups, the Gunners will start the match aggressively as they are known to do at the Emirates. Against a leaky PSV backline, multiple goals from the Gunners alone are possible, especially with the average Walter Benitez in goal for PSV (14th-best rated goalkeeper in the Eredivisie per WhoScored).
When you also consider PSV’s attacking firepower, especially in transition — this is the Dutch team’s clear strength — they are also more than capable of offering up some goal threats. The likes of Cody Gakpo and Xavi Simons will want to leave an impression on the Premier League clubs watching.
All in all, there seem to be several paths to at least two first-half goals. Four of six Arsenal home games and five of eight PSV away matches this season have seen two or more goals by halftime.— Simon Borg
Osasuna vs Espanyol prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Both teams to score
- Odds: -105
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Draw
It’s the first match this season on short rest for both teams and if you think they will try to conserve energy ahead of the weekend, the home team definitely can’t afford it. Osasuna (9th) are winless in three and a home match against 14th-place Espanyol is one they’ll feel they should win to get back on track. The Rojillos are also a strong attacking home team with the fourth best expected goals in La Liga (8.5) across five home matches, scoring in four of them.
Espanyol, energized after Sunday’s home win against Real Valladolid, are not wired to sit back and defend for 90 minutes. They’ve scored as many goals on the road as they have at home. Plus they have one of the hottest forwards in the league in Joselu, who’ll be joined by the returning Martin Braithwaite after his two-match suspension was served. They’ve scored in each of their four away matches so far. — Simon Borg
https://fbref.com/en/comps/12/La-Liga-Stats
Yesterday’s picks
A full day of five picks finished about even. Kyle picked Tottenham to beat Manchester United, and Spurs just flat out didn’t show up, but the under still hit as United won 2-0 at Old Trafford.
Elsewhere, Real Sociedad escaped with a win and clean sheet thanks to a disallowed Mallorca goal nullified on VAR. The pendulum swung in the other direction, however, when West Ham saw a penalty saved with a chance to draw Liverpool at Anfield. Even with that chance gone, the Hammers had enough chances to level the score, but failed to come away with a result.
| ✔️ or ❌ | |
|---|---|
| Tottenham to win (Bonn, +190) |
❌ |
| ManUtd-Tottenham Under 2.5 goals (Bonn, +105) |
✔️ |
| Real Sociedad win to nil (vs. Mallorca) (Bonn, +135) |
✔️ |
| West Ham double chance (@ Liverpool) (Bonn, +185) |
❌ |
| America to win (@ Toluca) + Over 2.5 total goals (Bonn, +160) |
❌ |
Soccer best bets records
Records below compiled since the first edition of this post on Monday, October 3.
| Kyle Bonn | Simon Borg | |
|---|---|---|
| Best Bets (Won-Lost-Push) |
36.6% (15-26-1) |
32.0% (8-16-1) |
| Total Units (+ Won / – Lost) |
-4.05 | -7.19 |
| Match Predictions (Correct picks) |
53.8% (21 of 39) |
52.0% (13 of 25) |
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