With the Champions League slate for the week complete, the Wild West of the Europa League and Europa Conference League are in the spotlight. While neutrals will enjoy the chaos that usually comes in these games, bettors will find them tough to call one way or another.
Arsenal take on PSV on the road in the second leg of their group stage matchup, with the Gunners having won last week’s rescheduled fixture between the two sides 1-0.
Roma also hit the road, traveling to Finland to meet HJK Helsinki, a team they blasted 3-0 at home in the reverse fixture. Manchester United host FC Sheriff at Old Trafford, while Real Sociedad visit Cyprus to take on Omonia Nicosia and Lazio host Danish side Midtjylland.
In the Conference League, Fiorentina host Turkish club Istanbul Basaksehir with the hopes of solidifying advancement to the knockout stage, while West Ham welcome Danish club Silkeborg to London having already wrapped up qualification. Villarreal are in the same boat, hosting Hapoel Beer Sheva in a meaningless game for the Spanish club.
Finally, in the evening, Toluca meet Pachuca in the Liga MX Apertura championship. The match features two surprising entrants, with top three seeds Club America, Monterrey, and Santos Laguna all failing to reach the final.
MORE: The Sporting News soccer betting guide
Nantes vs. Qarabag prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Qarabag moneyline
- Odds: +190 (Caesars)
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Qarabag to win
I will say it until I’m blue in the face — take a better team on the road with plus odds. In this matchup, Qarabag are underdogs on the odds simply due to the club’s relative obscurity. But make no mistake, they are miles better than Nantes.
The reverse fixture finished 3-0 in Azerbaijan, and there’s little reason the visitors can’t put up a similar result in France. Nantes finally turned around their poor league form somewhat over their last two games, but beating 17th-placed Brest is nothing to get excited about. Playmaker Ludovic Blas, hyped up before the season, has been extremely poor over the past six weeks. Nantes won’t put up a fight here. — Kyle Bonn
Red Star Belgrade vs. Trabzonspor prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Trabzonspor moneyline
- Odds: +240
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Trabzonspor to win
It’s honestly shocking that Trabzonspor are not only underdogs, but are such at over 2/1 odds. Yes, it’s difficult to play at a hostile Rajko Mitic Stadium, but Red Star were kept under lock and key in the reverse fixture in Turkey a month ago, and the Serbian club just finished a four-match road trip, with three consecutive league road games plus a Europa League trip to Hungary — all in a row.
Meanwhile, Trabzonspor have picked up good recent results, including a 4-0 demolition of Monaco in their last Europa League game. They’re not a great road team, but these odds are too good to pass up against the last-placed team in their group. — Kyle Bonn
Manchester United vs Sheriff prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Man United -2.5 handicap
- Odds: -105
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Man United to win
While betting on a flawed Manchester United team to win running away is somewhat nerve-racking, this FC Sheriff team flat out stinks on the road. They just lost to CS Petrocub on the road in league play, just their third top flight defeat in the last three years.
Man United don’t score a ton of goals, but with Europa League knockout qualification there for the taking, they could find themselves extra hungry. Cristiano Ronaldo may even find himself in a redemption situation, and having scored against Sheriff in the reverse fixture, he’ll want to put on a show for the Old Trafford crowd and gain back some favor. — Kyle Bonn
FC Zurich vs. Bodo/Glimt prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Bodo/Glimt to win to nil
- Odds: +310
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Bodo/Glimt
I was extremely impressed with what I saw from the Norwegian side in both legs against Arsenal. While they were far less competitive at The Emirates, eventually overwhelmed 3-0, they still put up a good fight, and then nearly came away with a home result. They’ve only gone and clobbered two league opponents by a combined 11-0 since.
Meanwhile, FC Zurich simply cannot score. They were beaten 2-1 in Norway last time these two teams met, only finding the back of the net via an own goal, and they have failed to score a single goal in their last five matches, now on a 13-match winless streak across all competitions. This shouldn’t even be a contest, even with Bodo/Glimt on the road. — Kyle Bonn
Yesterday’s picks
While Atletico Madrid’s randomly leaky defense ruined a perfect day, the overall return made up for the previous day’s flops.
Bayern Munich as an underdog at Barcelona was downright silly, and they pummeled the hapless Blaugrana. Eintracht Frankfurt and Marseille were in a war in Germany, and sure enough, as expected, the hosts and their better finishing reigned supreme.
| ✔️ or ❌ | |
|---|---|
| Bayern Munich moneyline (Bonn, +185) |
✔️ |
| Eintracht Frankfurt moneyline (Bonn, +128) |
✔️ |
| Atletico Madrid to win to nil (Bonn, +190) |
❌ |
Soccer best bets records
Records below compiled since the first edition of this post on Monday, October 3.
| Kyle Bonn | Simon Borg | |
|---|---|---|
| Best Bets (Won-Lost-Push) |
36.5% (23-39-1) |
32.4% (11-22-1) |
| Total Units (+ Won / – Lost) |
-4.96 | -9.38 |
| Match Predictions (Correct picks) |
52.6% (30 of 57) |
52.9% (18 of 34) |
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