It’s all about the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday with eight matches on the slate.
Our best bets for four of the eight Champions League matches are outlined below, including two moneyline/goal total parlays.
The Tuesday slate has plenty of attractive matchups, including Inter-Barcelona and Liverpool-Rangers, but those two matches did not present much value to our experts.
Instead, they’re banking on goals in Ajax-Napoli and Eintracht-Tottenham, as well as Olympique Marseille and Bayern Munich’s Jamal Musiala to have standout performances.
MORE: Sporting News soccer betting guide
Ajax vs. Napoli prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Napoli to win & 2+ goals
- Odds: +380 (Caesars)
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Napoli
Napoli are on a roll, and have a chance to make it three wins from three in Champions League Group A, having already blasted Liverpool and Rangers. They score loads of goals, with Georgian wonderkid Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in spectacular form.
Ajax are in a slump, winless in their last three matches, but have gone way under their expected goals total in each of those three games. Both teams should find the back of the net, and the Italian side to come out on top. — Kyle Bonn
* = Napoli and Over 2.5 goals is available on Sports Interaction at 3.90.
Marseille vs. Sporting CP prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Marseille win & Under 3.5 goals
- Odds: +190 / 2.90 (Sports Interaction)
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Marseille
These two teams have been incredibly wonky, with Marseille looking great in Ligue 1 play but terrible in the Champions League, while Sporting have slipped in league play but they are perfect through two European games.
Something has to give, and expected goals (xG) can provide some insight.
Sporting have won their two UCL games by a combined 5-0 score, but registered under 1.0 xG in both games. Meanwhile, Marseille haven’t been great offensively, but are spectacular at the back and were unlucky to lose their Champions League games, with an early red card in one and bunch of chances missed in the other. This is a game where things regress to the mean on both sides. — Kyle Bonn
| Pick | Caesars (USA) |
Sports Interaction (Canada) |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille win & Under 3.5 total goals | — | 2.90 |
Bayern Munich vs. Viktoria Plzen prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Jamal Musiala anytime scorer
- Odds: +115
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Bayern win
The most interesting angle in a match that is expected to be lopsided is the anytime scorer market, where there are six Bayern players listed at less than even money. Attacking midfielder Jamal Musiala is not one of them and that’s value.
The teenager has scored in six of the 11 matches in which he has played for Bayern this season, and two of his goal-less matches were cameos off the bench. Given this will be a game with few spaces for Bayern, the scoring edge should go to players who can create their own shot or make the ghosting run from midfield. Musiala excels at both. — Simon Borg
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham prediction, best bet
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 total goals
- Odds: -135
- Prediction (Win/Draw): Tottenham
A combination of Tottenham’s counterattacking prowess and Eintracht’s desperation to come away with a home win should see goals exchanged between two talented attacks.
Mario Gotze is out for Eintracht, but they still have enough firepower to cause issues for an uncharacteristically leaky Spurs backline (nine goals conceded in their last six matches on 7.2 xG). Despite the recent stats, Spurs are capable of locking things down defensively on their day, which is a reason ‘Both Teams To Score’ at -155 is less attractive. — Simon Borg
Yesterday’s picks
Kyle predicted the goals would be flowing in the bottom-of-the-table clash in the Premier League. But a surprise corner-kick header by Elche, who only had five total shots in the match at Rayo Vallecano, torpedoed his clean sheet pick.
A stoppage time Udinese winner (2-1) and a shot that rang the post by Nottingham Forest’s Taiwo Awoniyi in a 4-0 loss (Forest mustered 1.10 xG) ruined the day for Borg.
| Best Bets | ✔️ or ❌ |
|---|---|
| Leicester-Nottingham Over 2.5 goals (Kyle Bonn, -150) |
✔️ |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet vs. Elche (Kyle Bonn, +111) |
❌ |
| Leicester-Nottingham BTTS (Yes) (Simon Borg, -105) |
❌ |
| Verona-Udinese Under 2.5 goals (Simon Borg, -150) |
❌ |
Soccer best bets records
Records below compiled since the first edition of this post on October 3, 2022.
| Kyle Bonn | Simon Borg | |
|---|---|---|
| Best Bets (Won-Lost-Push) |
50% (1-1-0) |
0% (0-2-0) |
| Total Units (+ Won / – Lost) |
-0.21 | -2.00 |
| Match Predictions (Correct picks) |
50% (1 of 2) |
50% (1 of 2) |
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