Soccer predictions, best bets today: Betting tips, expert picks for games on Wednesday, October 19

There are no European cup matches this midweek, so domestic competitions have taken advantage.

The Premier League has five games to pick from, while La Liga will also see half the league in action. Meanwhile, domestic cup competitions in Italy (Coppa Italia), Germany (DFB-Poka), and Spain (Copa del Rey) will play a full round of matches.

Liga MX is coming down to the wire in the race for the Apertura title, with Toluca and Club America meeting in the semifinals, while the second semifinal is played tomorrow.

Check out all our picks below.

MORE: The Sporting News soccer betting guide

Manchester United vs. Tottenham prediction, best bet

• Best Bet: Tottenham to win
• Odds: +190 (Sports Interaction)
• Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals
• Odds: +105 (Sports Interaction)
• Prediction (Win/Draw): Tottenham win

 

Manchester United have been poor in attack of late, and a big reason is down to the lack of production from Bruno Fernandes, who is creating good chances, but at a much lower rate.

This season, Fernandes has delivered 16 shot assists (assists on shots taken by teammates), but totaled just 1.50 xA (expected assists), for an xA per key pass (KP) of 0.09. Last season, Fernandes assisted chances at a rate of 0.106 xA/KP, and the season before that at 0.12 xA/KP. His volume of key passes has also decreased sharply in the last three seasons.

Tottenham have injuries in the attack to Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski, meaning the under 2.5 total goals is a good play here, while Tottenham should still find chances through Son and Kane to earn all three points. — Kyle Bonn

Real Sociedad vs. Mallorca best bet, prediction

• Best Bet: Real Sociedad to win to nil
• Odds: +135 (Caesars)
• Prediction (Win/Draw): Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad are clearly the better side here, but should be able to keep a clean sheet as well at home against a struggling Mallorca side. La Real have been the victim of some devastating finishing this season, conceding 12 goals on just 8.26 xG and 10.48 xGOT (expected goals on target). Mallorca, meanwhile, are not a good finishing team, scoring 7 goals on 8.14 xG and 8.49 xGOT.

On the other end, La Real bury their chances, scoring 15 goals on 12.99 xG, and the highest xGOT differential in the league at 16.62 xGOT, or +3.63. That’s stunning given the losses of Umar Sadiq (ACL injury) and Alexander Isak (transfer to Newcastle), but Alexander Sorloth and Brais Mendez have slotted right in, with creativity behind them in Takefusa Kubo, Mikel Merino, and David Silva. — Kyle Bonn

* = Sports Interaction offers a “Real Sociedad only to score” at +130

Liverpool vs. West Ham best bet, prediction

• Best Bet: West Ham double chance
• Odds: +185 (Caesars)
• Prediction (Win/Draw): Draw

This is the perfect spot for a classic letdown game. An emotional win over Man City does little to cover up the flaws in a Liverpool team playing on short rest. Now, they’re missing Diogo Jota to injury, adding to the lost list of medically unavailable Reds players.

Normally, this is a spot for Jurgen Klopp to rotate Thiago out of the midfield, but he can’t because of the list of injuries. While a draw no bet at +500 is enticing, trusting West Ham to score enough goals to win is difficult. Still, if goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski has a good game, the Hammers could certainly hold this Liverpool team and earn a positive road result. — Kyle Bonn

Toluca vs. Club America best bet, prediction

• Best Bet: Club America to win & over 2.5 goals
• Odds: +160 (Sports Interaction)
• Prediction (Win/Draw): Club America

Club America are a goalscoring machine, with 18 goals across their last five matches. They go up against a Toluca side that’s also in good form up front, although their peripherals suggest an eventual letdown. The table-toppers should have no problem taking a first-leg lead in this semifinal. — Kyle Bonn

* Caesars does offer Club America to win & 2+ goals (+115)

Yesterday’s picks

The run of bad luck shows no sign of stopping.

Crystal Palace ended up topping Wolves as expected, but conceded a goal to Adama Traore, who hadn’t scored a Premier League goal since January 2021, ruining the win to nil pick. The goal came on what was basically Wolves’ only real scoring chance of the entire match.

Athletic Club also inexplicably slumped to a draw at 15th-placed Getafe who managed to put two goals past a usually stout Athletic Bilbao back line. The result puts a big dent in Athletic’s Champions League hopes. The day was salvaged somewhat by Racing, who had to work hard for a 1-0 win on the road at Lanus, with Enzo Copetti supplying the 81st minute winner.

Soccer best bets records

Records below compiled since the first edition of this post on Monday, October 3.