No. 4 TCU takes on No. 18 Texas in a prime-time Big 12 matchup at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, on Saturday.
Game time is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, and it will be televised on ABC.
TCU (9-0) continues to search for respect despite an unblemished record and the high-level play of quarterback Max Duggan. First-year coach Sonny Dykes has the best offense in the Big 12 at 43.1 points per game, and the Horned Frogs are the most-consistent team in the conference.
MORE: Against the spread picks for Top 25 games
Texas (6-3) is still favored in this matchup, and ESPN’s “College GameDay” will be on hand for the game. The Longhorns are still capable of getting in the Big 12 championship mix under second-year coach Steve Sarkisian, and quarterback Quinn Ewers continues to improve with each week. Yes, former TCU coach Gary Patterson is a special assistant for the Longhorns, too.
MORE: Tennessee’s path to CFP | What 12-team field would look like
That should provide some heat for what should be your classic high-scoring Big 12 affair. This is the first matchup with both teams ranked since 2007. Here is everything you need to know to bet on the matchup between the Horned Frogs and Longhorns.
TCU vs. Texas odds
- Spread: Texas -7
- Over/under: 64.5
- Moneyline: Texas -275, TCU +235
The line moved down a half point, but the Longhorns are holding as the favorite. Half of Texas’ six Big 12 games have hit the over. Four of TCU’s six Big 12 games have hit the over.
Three trends to know
— The Longhorns are 4-1 S/U and 4-1 ATS at home this season, with the lone S/U loss coming to Alabama. Texas is 3-1 ATS at home as a favorite this season, and they are 7-3 ATS as a home favorite under Sarkisian.
— TCU is 6-2 S/U in this series since the College Football Playoff era started in 2014, and that is a credit to the program Patterson built with the Horned Frogs. TCU has covered in four of its last five visits to Texas. The Horned Frogs are 7-2 ATS in Dykes’ first season.
—The last three meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, and the average total between the teams in that stretch is 62.7 points per game. Texas is 3-1 all time in this series when both teams are ranked.
Three things to watch
— Max Duggan again? This is Duggan’s fourth start against Texas, and he’s 2-1 against the Longhorns. He ranks fourth in the FBS in pass efficiency (168.7), and in the stretch of victories of four straight ranked opponents he completed 65.1% of his passes. Texas allows a 64.7% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. How will the Longhorns disrupt the timing in the passing game against a balanced group of receivers? Five different TCU players have at least three TD receptions in 2022. Duggan is 69.4% in those three starts against Texas. That accuracy is worth watching on the road.
— Talented running backs. The Big 12 has two 1,000-yard rushers, and both are featured in this game. TCU’s Kendre Miller (1,009 yards, 12 TDs) averages 6.6 yards per carry, and he will test Texas linebackers Jaylan Ford and DeMarvion Overshown, who each have 7.5 tackles for loss this season. Bijan Robinson (1,129 yards, 12 TDs) averages 5.9 yards per carry, and that will be the key for Horned Frogs linebackers Jonny Hodges, a Navy transfer, and Jamol Hodge. They have combined for 11.5 tackles for loss.
MORE: Heisman race | Bowl projections
— Quinn Ewers under the lights. Ewers will get another national showcase game, and results have been mixed against ranked teams. He’s 46 of 92 passing – a 50% completion percentage – in starts against Alabama, Oklahoma State and Kansas State. The Longhorns did beat the Wildcats in Week 10, but this is one of those games fans will remember when it comes to evaluating Ewers in the future. The Horned Frogs allow 250.3 passing yards per game, so Ewers will have his chance to impress.
Stat that matters
The one-score game theory is at work here. The Horned Frogs are 3-0 in one-score games this season, and they also rallied from 11-point halftime deficits to beat Oklahoma State and Kansas State this season. There is a clutch feel around Duggan and a confident offense. Texas is 2-3 in one-score games this season, and they have blown halftime leads against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State of seven points or more. Will the Longhorns learn from those losses?
TCU vs. Texas prediction
Patterson compiled a 181-79 record from 2000-21 before being let go last season. Now, he’s a special assistant to Sarkisian and Texas, and that is a storyline that will be hammered throughout the telecast. Will the Longhorns play spoiler here? There is a legitimate chance, and turnovers are always a factor. TCU has a +7 turnover margin this season. The Longhorns are at +1. Duggan plays another clean game, and the Horned Frogs pull away in the third quarter after an even first half. A third-quarter TD pass to Taye Barber puts the Horned Frogs up two scores, and they hold off Texas in the fourth quarter. TCU improves to 10-0 in another one-score loss for the Longhorns.
Final score: TCU 38, Texas 33
Hits: 0
