Tom Brady has been dominating the NFL for so long that any type of slow start seems odd.
Brady and the Buccaneers have started the season 2-1 after falling to the Packers in a 14-12 Week 3 clash, but the offense has been kept quiet all season. Even in the previous two wins, Tampa Bay scored only 19 and 20 points in the first two games of the season.
Combine the slow offensive start with some off-field drama, and there are certainly some around the NFL world that are concerned by the early returns from Brady and the Buccaneers after Tampa Bay began the 2022 season as one of the Super Bowl favorites.
At this point, there is no shortage of data on Brady’s first three games of a season. He has started at least three games in a season 21 times — more than anyone else in league history, per Stathead.
How does the 2022 start compare to previous starts to the year from Brady? The Sporting News takes a look.
Tom Brady stats 2022
The record — 2-1 — certainly isn’t bad. There are only two teams in the NFL this season that have gotten off to a better start in the standings.
But Brady’s individual numbers aren’t very glamorous. He has completed 65 percent of his passes for 673 yards with three passing touchdowns and one interception. He is averaging 6.5 yards per attempt, which would be the second-lowest of his career behind only 2002 at 6.3, his second season in the league.
The numbers certainly aren’t bad, per se, and certainly for a 45-year-old quarterback in the NFL, most would consider them to be perfectly respectable. But for Brady, who holds nearly NFL passing record, the numbers do seem pedestrian.
Comparing Brady’s numbers to career
There are a number of different ways to compare Brady’s stats to past starts in his career. Let’s start with his quarterback rating.
Though certainly an imperfect stat, rating is one of the more all-encompassing stats out there. Excluding his 2008 season in which he was injured in the first game of the season, Brady has 21 seasons where he has started at least three games, according to Stathead.
So far through 2022, Brady has a quarterback rating of 89.2, which ranks 14th out of 21. While that seems to be close to middle-of-the-road, the gap between it and the top tier is huge. His best season (2007) saw him post a quarterback rating of 141.8. His 2022 quarterback rating is 21.3 points higher than his worst (rookie season of 2021 at 67.9). Adding 21.3 to his 2022 rating would put him at only 110.5, which would still only rank seventh in his career.
Then there’s the touchdown passes. He has had three seasons in which he reached double-digit touchdown passes in the first three weeks of the season: 2007 (10), 2021 (10) and 2011 (11). This year, he only has three. He had none through the first three weeks of his rookie season, but next lowest is this year’s total, which is tied for 16th (and second-to-last) with 2003, 2005, 2009 and 2014. His 2.9 percent touchdown rate ranks 17th.
Part of the low passing numbers can be attributed to his overall lack of passing. Brady has attempted only 103 passes so far this season, which ranks 14th among his starts. His completion percentage on those passes remains middle-of-the-road (65 percent sits at 11th). Certainly attempting that few passes helps explain some of why he has only 673 passing yards, which ranks 17th of his 21 starts. But even with that, his yards per attempt of 6.5 still ranks low at 15th.
It hasn’t just been Brady’s personal numbers that have been quiet to start the season. The team’s overall offensive numbers are down. Not just for this year, but for any Brady-led offense. Through the first three games, the Buccaneers have scored only 51 points, which is tied for the 22nd-fewest in the league through the first three weeks.
According to data from Stathead, the 51 points scored by the Buccaneers are the second-fewest points scored through the first three weeks of the season, excluding his rookie year, his injured 2008 and his suspended 2016 campaigns. The only time one of his offenses scored fewer points came in 2006, when it had just 50. And even put in the context of the league, the numbers are way down. A Brady-led offense has been ranked 22nd or below only two other times: 2013 (59 points, ranked 22nd) and 2018 (57 points, tied for 25th).
To further put Tampa Bay’s 51 points into context, Brady-led offenses have six times scored at least double that.
- 2015: 119 points (second in the league)
- 2002: 115 points (first)
- 2007: 114 points (second)
- 2019: 106 points (second)
- 2011: 104 points (tied for second)
- 2021: 103 points (tied for first)
There are enough reasons to give Brady a pass for some of the offensive struggles to start the season. He faced tough defenses in three straight weeks against Dallas, New Orleans and Green Bay, and has dealt with injuries to offensive linemen and Chris Godwin, as well as the suspension of Mike Evans for the Week 3 matchup against the Packers.
Perhaps Brady is starting to feel the effects of Father Time in his age-45 season. But the NFL world will get a better idea of where he is this season as the Buccaneers face the Chiefs on “Sunday Night Football.”
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