Tumultuous PC Market Likely to Persist Into 2023

It’s been a rough year for the PC market so far, with shipments declining more than anticipated. However, sagging demand is only expected to persist into 2023, according to research firm IDC. 

In a research note(Opens in a new window) predicting industry trends, IDC today warned that “tumultuous times are ahead for the PC and tablet markets.” For 2022, it’s projecting PC shipments will decline year over year by 12.8% to 305 million units, down from 349 million.  

“Further contraction is also expected in 2023 as consumer demand has slowed, the education demand has been largely fulfilled, and enterprise demand gets pushed out due to worsening macroeconomic conditions,” IDC added. 

As a result, the research firm projects that in 2023, PC shipment volumes will come in right under the 300 million unit mark. 

(Credit: IDC)

IDC blames weakening demand on the economic downturn, inflation, and a surge in PC buying that began in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic began. The latter forced people everywhere to work and study at home, which sent PC demand soaring to levels not seen in a decade. 

That demand has since cooled off, leading to some major dives in CPU shipment numbers. “With economic headwinds gaining speed, we expect worsening consumer sentiment to result in further consumer market contractions over the next six quarters,” says IDC analyst Linn Huang. 

The good news is that the shipment forecast for 2022 and 2023 remains significantly higher than the PC market numbers from before the pandemic. Back in 2019, vendors shipped(Opens in a new window) only 266 million units. In 2018, the figures were slightly lower at 259 million units. 

IDC also expects the market to return to growth in 2024. “Long-term demand will be driven by a slow economic recovery combined with an enterprise hardware refresh as support for Windows 10 nears its end,” says IDC analyst Jitesh Ubrani. “Educational deployments and hybrid work are also expected to become a mainstay driving additional volumes.”

Another research firm, Omdia, is also forecasting(Opens in a new window) PC notebook shipments will decline by 15.5% year over year in 2022. However, Omdia predicts the PC notebook market can expect positive growth of 1% in 2023, but only if the Russia-Ukraine war concludes before this year is out.