Once you get to the late rounds of your fantasy football draft, you need to focus your attention on finding potential sleepers with upside that isn’t necessarily factored into their ADPs. Sometimes, it requires targeting a handcuff RB on a team with a shaky or injury-prone starter. Chicago’s Khalil Herbert and Atlanta’s Tyler Allgeier fit that description, as both have breakout potential despite being behind two established first-stringers.
Let’s break down which back is the better choice for fantasy owners in 12-team leagues looking to build their RB depth.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2022 fantasy cheat sheet
Tyler Allgeier fantasy outlook, projection 2022
Allgeier is an intriguing rookie RB with real upside given his current ADP. While he’s still behind 2021 fantasy stud Cordarrelle Patterson on the initial depth chart, Allgeier has a path to a fantasy-worthy workload in his first season. Allgeier’s impressed throughout training camp, and given the lack of overall talent in Atlanta’s RB room, the BYU product might see a respectable snap count in year one.
It’s never a wise idea to put a lot of stock into what you see in the preseason, but it’s worth noting Allgeier got reps with the first team offense during Atlanta’s second preseason game against the Jets. He rushed for just 17 yards on six carries, but showcased his ability to gain yards after contact. Even better for his fantasy prospects was his usage in the passing game, where he saw four targets, securing three catches for 12 yards.
2022 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Top 200 | Superflex
Allgeier wasn’t used much in the passing game during his time at BYU, as he never surpassed 200-plus receiving yards in a season. He’s still a capable pass-catching back whose early season usage with Atlanta might come primarily from the receiving end. It’s a good sign Atlanta is looking his way in the passing game, boosting his fantasy appeal in PPR formats.
2022 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Top 200 | Superflex
If you’re contemplating drafting Allgeier, you need to maintain a season-long approach with him. With Atlanta projected as the NFC South bottom feeder, there’s a chance Allgeier assumes a bigger workload as the season progresses. It’s tough to imagine 31-year-old Patterson repeating last year — and he’s certainly not a core piece of Atlanta’s future — so the switch to Allgeier seems likely at some point. If the Falcons are well under .500 toward the back-half of the year, they might want to give Allgeier more run to see if the fifth-round pick can produce at the highest level.
Don’t jump ship in Week 4 if he hasn’t performed to your liking because by Week 10 he could very well turn into a must-start RB2/flex.
2022 FANTASY SLEEPERS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | One from each team
Khalil Herbert fantasy outlook, projection 2022
Herbert flashed as a rookie during fellow Bears RB David Montgomery’s absence, producing as a borderline RB1 in standard formats during Weeks 5-8 of last season. Herbert’s ability to fill in admirably for Montgomery starts to complicate the Bears’ backfield a bit entering 2022.
Unfortunately for Herbert, Montgomery’s still the undisputed No.1 running back in the Bears’ offense with the ability to play three downs. Without a clearly defined role in the Bears’ offense, it’s hard to envision a large enough workload to give Herbert standalone fantasy value. Herbert didn’t do much in the receiving game last season, seeing a total of 16 targets (71st among RBs).
2022 RANKINGS TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs
Herbert’s a solid handcuff, but he’s still a wild card when it comes to his weekly usage. His volatility should make fantasy owners hesitant to draft him in certain situations, like this potential scenario with Herbert and Allgeier still on the board.
2022 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Overall
While both players are suitable bench RBs who should be rostered in all formats, Allgeier has a bit more upside given his potential opportunity within Atlanta’s RB room. Herbert’s more than likely going to need an injury for him to garner fantasy value, but Allgeier’s ability to aid in the passing game can lead him to a higher overall fantasy point output in 2022-23.
The pick is … Allgeier
To get RotoBaller’s take on Allgeier vs. Herbert — or any four players you might be considering in your draft — check out their exclusive “Who to Draft?” tool below:
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