USA vs Iran prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for World Cup 2022 Group B

Iran and the United States clash in a critical Group B matchup for all the marbles, with a World Cup knockout stage spot on the line.

Only one of the two nations can reach the Round of 16. For the United States, the task is simple — they must win to advance. There’s no goal differential, goals scored, or fair play tiebreakers to worry about. If Gregg Berhalter and company win, they go through, and if they do not, they are out.

For Iran, it’s only slightly more complicated than that. They are guaranteed to advance with a victory as well, and almost certainly with a draw. The only situation that sees Iran out, is if they earn a draw and Wales defeat England bby at least four goals, which seems not just highly unlikely, but next to impossible.

The U.S. will hope to conjure up similar energy as they did against Algeria in 2010, when victory was required in their final group stage match then too. Landon Donovan produced an iconic moment, scoring in the 91st minute to send the U.S. through to the knockout stages.

MORE: Watch USA vs. Iran and every World Cup match live with fuboTV (U.S.-only free trial)

USA vs. Iran odds

USA are a heavy favorite, just creeping into minus territory on the moneyline, while Iran are over 3/1 underdogs in the critical match.

The United States will know they must win to advance, and bookmakers know that too, expecting a defensive battle between two teams that have struggled to score throughout this tournament. The under is a heavy favorite, but interestingly the both teams to score is a much more even split.

MORE: Follow all 2022 FIFA World Cup daily picks & predictions from The Sporting News here

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and Ladbrokes (Australia).

USA vs. Iran: 3 things to know

USA vs. Iran team news

The United States has no known fitness concerns going into this match. There were questions regarding the fitness of Weston McKennie prior to the England game, but the Juventus midfielder put forth an exceptional 77-minute performance to put those to bed. Yunus Musah also had concerns coming into the England game, but went 90 minutes against the European side in the draw.

MORE: Full injury tracker for all 32 teams at the 2022 FIFA World Cup

The biggest question for Iran remains the health of attacker Sardar Azmoun. He raced back to fitness from a serious calf injury in time for the World Cup, and came off the bench vs. England in the opener, but was substituted off midway through the second half against Iran. Goalkeeper Alireza Beiranvand will supposedly be back from his concussion for this match, but that’s according to Carlos Quieroz before the Wales game, so more will be needed on that front. Feyenoord winger Alireza Jahanbakhsh is suspended for yellow card accumulation.

MORE: Full list of players at the 2022 World Cup on or in danger of triggering yellow card suspensions

USA vs. Iran key stats

• The United States has won at least one game in six of the country’s 10 previous times participating in a World Cup, including each of the last two and three of the last four. Failing to beat Iran would mean the U.S. would not win a game at a World Cup for the first time since 2006, which is also the last time they failed to exit the group stage.
• The United States have, however, only won their third group game at a World Cup once — the famous win over Algeria in 2010. They have been defeated in all seven other games.
• USA and Iran have only met once previously in a competitive environment, with Iran emerging victorious at the 1998 World Cup on a 2-1 score, with Brian McBride’s 87th minute consolation goal not enough to earn points as the U.S. crashed out of the group stage with three defeats. The two nations also met once in a 2000 friendly, which ended in a 1-1 draw.

USA vs. Iran match facts

• Date: Tuesday, November 29
• Kickoff Time: 2:00 pm ET / 7:00 pm GMT / 6:00 am AEDT (Wed, Nov. 30)
• Location: Al Thumama Stadium
• Official: Antonio Mateu (Spain)

The #USA vs. #IRN match will feature a Spanish officiating crew, w/ Antonio Mateu as head referee.

In 7 La Liga games this year, Mateu has shown 3.86 yellows per game: 17th of 19 La Liga referees & 16th in fouls/tackle (0.78)

He officiated #QAT 1-3 #SEN (6 🟡) #FIFAWorldCup https://t.co/fOufXl1tKb

— Kyle Bonn (@the_bonnfire) November 27, 2022

USA vs. Iran prediction

• Moneyline lean: United States (-120)
• Against the spread lean: USA -0.5 (-120)
• Score prediction: USA 1-0 Iran

The 90 minutes of this game will be tense for some and thrilling for many, but the U.S. should have enough talent to pull this out. Iran will play for the draw knowing that a single point sees them through to the knockout stage, and this game should be one-way traffic.

That doesn’t mean it will be easy by any stretch, and the U.S. have shown an inability to score throughout this tournament. So too have Iran, and one goal should be enough to see the United States into the knockout stage. Then again, one goal should have been enough to top Wales as well, and avoid all this nonsense to begin with.

MORE: How to watch USA vs. Iran in World Cup Group B play

USA vs. Iran: best bet

In what should be a cagey and tense affair, there’s loads of opportunities for players on both sides to stamp their name in their country’s World Cup lore. The pressure is entirely on the United States, given the pre-tournament expectations and knowing they must win to advance.

USA vs. Iran best bet

• Pick: Under 2.5 goals
• Odds: -155 (BetMGM)

The United States has been abysmal in front of goal this tournament, there’s no other way to put it. With Tim Weah and Christian Pulisic manning the flanks, and the combination of Josh Sargent and Haji Wright up front, the U.S. has generated just 1.42 xG through their first too matches. That’s just not going to get it done. The potential injection of Gio Reyna or Brenden Aaronson should help, but they’ll need to change things up to provide more threat against a defensively sound Iran side.

Iran has also struggled to score, mind you, with a 0.087 xG per shot tally, which is why…

USA vs. Iran prop bet

• Pick: Half with most goals — 2H
• Odds: +105 (BetMGM)

Iran especially have been utterly putrid in the first half offensively, to the point where it almost feels on purpose, as head coach Carlos Quieroz directs his team to reach halftime without conceding before they open things up. Their four goals have come evenly split between their two matches, with two coming when already trailing 4-0 to England and the others while playing with a man advantage late against Wales. They put up just 0.13 xG against England in the first half while the game was still in doubt, and they registered just 0.18 first half xG against Wales.

The U.S. will crash the Iran penalty area throughout the match. They have been much more of a first-half team this tournament, but the totals for them are so low, it’s hard to see an early breakthrough in this game. It will likely come later, once fans have no more fingernails to chew.

USA vs. Iran prop bet

• Pick: Over 7.5 total corners
• Odds: +180 (FanDuel)

If the game proceeds as predicted, the United States may hit this over themselves in the second half as they push hard for a late winner. Indeed, even in low-scoring affairs against Wales and England, the U.S. produced five and seven corners respectively in their first two World Cup matches.

Iran are not a team that is built to win corners, but they should contribute enough to help the total over the mark. No matter the tactical plan, with so much on the line in this match, whoever is chasing a result late will pour numbers forward and throw caution to the wind, and this tally should hit without problems.

USA vs. Iran flier bet

• Pick: Pulisic to score & U.S. to win
• Odds: +300 (BetMGM)

Big players arrive in big moments, and Pulisic is certainly the biggest U.S. player in this squad. It was Landon Donovan in 2010, and Christian Pulisic should stamp his mark on American soccer history in this match as well. He’s already delivered in high-intensity environments, having scored and assisted for Chelsea across two legs against Real Madrid in the 2020/21 Champions League semifinals en route to winning the competition.

Pulisic has not scored an international goal since his hat-trick against Panama in World Cup qualifying on March 28, a run of seven goal-less appearances tallying 585 minutes. It is the longest such drought of Pulisic’s entire USMNT career.

Nevertheless, Pulisic has been quite good in this tournament, and has had little support. Against both Wales and England, Pulisic was lively, dribbling at opposing defenders and looking to create chances for teammates that never materialized. Against Iran, with loads of U.S. pressure sure to arrive, Pulisic will be the man to carry the U.S. dramatically into the knockout stage.

USA vs Iran live stream, TV channel

This final Group B match will be played at the Al Thumama Stadium. Here’s how you can watch all the action in some of the major global territories.

MORE: Watch every World Cup match live with fuboTV (U.S.-only free trial)