USA vs Netherlands prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for World Cup 2022 Round of 16

The United States managed to scrap and claw their way through Group B, and now find themselves in the Round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup, where they’ll face the No. 8 ranked team in the world, the Netherlands.

While the opponent is an established European power with proven World Cup pedigree, it’s still a soft draw considering they have avoided seeing the likes of Brazil, France, Argentina, Spain, or any other top tournament favorite.

The U.S. have only advanced past the Round of 16 once in World Cup history, with that win coming against CONCACAF rivals Mexico in 2002, meaning they have never beaten a non-North American team in the World Cup knockout stage.

If ever there was a chance to do so, now seems to be that time. The Netherlands were unbeaten through group stage play as well, but looked shaky at times, especially against Ecuador who pressed them into oblivion, as the Dutch were lucky to escape with a point. Still, Louis van Gaal’s side is on a spectacular 18-match unbeaten run, and the U.S. will need its best performance of the tournament to advance in historic fashion.

MORE: Follow all 2022 FIFA World Cup daily picks & predictions from The Sporting News here

USA vs. Netherlands odds

The United States are understandably in a hole going into this Round of 16 match, but will feel they have a chance given the way they performed against the No. 5 ranked team England, and the odds do slightly reflect that, as the Netherlands are minus-odds favorites, but not by much.

The U.S. have figured out a way to get results ugly, and that’s reflected in the clear expectation from bookmakers that goals will be at a premium in this game. Of the six group stage games between these two teams, all six failed to hit the over.

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and Ladbrokes (Australia).

A reminder: All moneyline bets in soccer are for regulation only, regardless of competition. If the match requires a winner and goes to extra-time or penalties, a moneyline bet of a regulation draw is successful and the rest of play does not factor in.

USA vs. Netherlands: 3 things to know

USA vs. Netherlands team news

The biggest injury to follow in this match is the pelvic contusion suffered by Christian Pulisic while scoring his winner against Iran. He was subbed off in that match and taken to a local hospital, which the team called a “precaution.” All indication is that Pulisic will play, as he was seen at the team hotel celebrating with the squad that night. It’s more worrying for Josh Sargent who also departed the match with an ankle injury after landing awkwardly on the ball. He was seen in tears on the sidelines and had scans done the following day. His status is unknown, but one positive sign was a photo Tim Ream posted Wednesday morning of him playing pool with Sargent, where the U.S. striker is standing and looks in good spirits.

For the Netherlands, Memphis Depay missed the group stage opener, came off the bench for their next game, then started and played 60 minutes against Qatar. It’s uncertain how match fit he is now, having missed two months of club action leading into the World Cup, but he seems to be tracking towards another start here against the U.S. Otherwise, the only player missing is Georginio Wijnaldum whose broken leg back in August sees him fail to make the tournament.

MORE: Full injury tracker for all 32 teams at the 2022 FIFA World Cup

USA vs. Netherlands key stats

• Since Louis van Gaal was hired in August of 2021, the Netherlands have not lost a single match, running 18 games unbeaten, with 13 wins and five draws. Their last loss came to the Czech Republic in the Euro 2022 Round of 16.
• The United States have lost each of their last two Round of 16 games in extra time, falling 2-1 to both Ghana and Belgium before they could reach a penalty shootout.
• The last win for the U.S. against a European nation at the World Cup came in 2002 against Portugal in the group stage, now on a run of 11 straight winless games against European opposition.
• Netherlands striker Memphis Depay was once engaged to Steve Harvey’s daughter.

USA vs. Netherlands match facts

• Date: Saturday, December 3
• Kickoff Time: 10:00 am ET / 3:00 pm GMT / 2:00 am AEDT (Sun, Dec. 4)
• Location: Khalifa International Stadium
• Official: TBD

USA vs. Netherlands prediction

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+240)
• Against the spread lean: USA +0.5 (-110)
• Score prediction: USA 1-1 Netherlands

If I had to pick one team to come away with a 90-minute victory, I’d pick the Netherlands, but I do think the U.S. can pull out a draw here if they continue to perform as they did in the group stage. Gregg Berhalter has shown enough tactical ingenuity that I trust him to come up with a good gameplan to cover the opening 45 minutes, and then defend for their dear lives after the break.

It’s certainly a nervy way to approach this match, or any match, and surely not what Berhalter had ideally had in mind a few years ago when he envisioned how he wanted to play at the World Cup, but he’s done well to adapt with where this team is at developmentally.

The Dutch have picked up results successfully, but have failed the eye test a few times. They were pummeled by Ecuador, to the point where they managed just two shots all match, lucky to score with one of them. Even the opening win over Senegal featured some struggles, as the Oranje were beaten on both shots and expected goals, but again made the most of their opportunities. Could the Dutch be running out of good fortune? They can’t rely on Cody Gakpo’s brilliance forever.

USA vs. Netherlands: best bet

• Pick: Half with most goals — 2H
• Odds: +105 (BetMGM)

I’ve said it before in this tournament and I’ll say it again, the fact that this bet remains consistently at even-money odds boggles my mind. The amount of games that have been scoreless at the half in this World Cup continues to grow each and every day.

Both these teams have appeared to be better first half performers, which lends one to think of placing an opposite selection here, but remember — when a team is a better first-half side, that also includes defensively.

Upon closer examination, the United States have been a better attacking side in the first half, but defensively as well, putting up 1.97 xG but conceding just 0.68 xGA. The Netherlands, however, play to get to halftime scoreless, hoping to nick a goal against the run of play, which they’ve done a few times. They put up just 0.95 xG in the first half, and concede just 0.63 xGA.

After the break, things swing the opposite direction. The U.S. have been consistently on their heels in their second half, conceding waves of pressure resulting in 2.05 xGA to just 0.63 xG of their own attempts on goal. The Netherlands, meanwhile, spring to life after the break, with 1.43 xG to their name…yet concede 2.08 xGA in the second half. It’s a give and take for Louis van Gaal who likes to play a back-and-forth affair as the game drags on.

This game might see a goal in the first half, but you can expect and absolutely wild finish to this one with whoever may be trailing looking to pile on the pressure and turn the game around.

USA vs. Netherlands prop bet

• Pick: Netherlands double chance & under 2.5 goals
• Odds: -110 (BetMGM)

Ultimately, while the U.S. may feel they have a chance in this game, they’ll have to defend well to come out in front. As a result, this game could get clogged up, with Tyler Adams and the U.S. midfield continuing to frustrate the Netherlands but produce very little threat going forward.

It’s hard to see the U.S. coming away with a win here, but if they defend well enough they could see out a 0-0 or 1-1 draw and send it to extra tie or penalties. Ultimately, the Netherlands should at least avoid defeat in a defensive affair.

USA vs. Netherlands flier bet

• Pick: USA to win 1H / Netherlands to win 2H
• Odds: +1000 (BetMGM)

We’ve already touched on how much better the U.S. play better in the first half, and how the Netherlands enjoy an open second half…so why not take a chance on this bet with a big reward?

The U.S. could get an early goal and then sit back on it as they did against Iran, which would invite the Netherlands to pile on the pressure. This is a pick that sports longshot odds but has a decent chance of success.

USA vs. Netherlands live stream, TV channel

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This huge Round of 16 match will be played at the Khalifa International Stadium. Here’s how you can watch all the action in some of the major global territories.