No. 10 USC takes on Stanford in a matchup between Pac-12 rivals at Stanford Stadium in Palo Alto, Calif., on Saturday.
Game time is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The matchup will be televised on ABC.
This is Lincoln Riley’s first prime-time closeup with the Trojans. USC (1-0) beat Rice 66-14 in Week 1, and the transfer portal tandem of Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison connected for two TDs. The Trojans have the potential to be one of the best offenses in the FBS, and the defense has some playmakers, too.
Stanford (1-0) won its opener 41-10 against Colgate, and the Cardinal are trying to get back in the conference championship picture with coach David Shaw. Tanner McKee is an experienced quarterback, and E.J. Smith is off to a good start in the backfield. The Cardinal beat the Trojans 42-28 last season, which led to the firing of Clay Helton.
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USC and Stanford have split the last 10 meetings, and that includes a pair of Pac-12 championship games. Here is everything you need to know about Saturday’s matchup:
USC vs. Stanford odds
- Spread: USC -8.5
- Over/under: 51.5
- Moneyline: USC +270, Stanford -303 (Caesars Sportsbook)
This line opened at 11.5, but it has dropped three points – which shows confidence in the Cardinal at home. It has dropped down to -8 at some sports-books.
Three trends to know
— Stanford has won four of the last five meetings against USC at Stanford Stadium, and the last two were double-digit victories.
— Lincoln Riley-led Oklahoma was 15-3 S/U as a road favorite since 2017, but they were 5-12-1 ATS in those games. Stanford is 4-7 S/U and 4-7 ATS as a home underdog in the same stretch under Shaw.
— Six of the last matchups between the Trojans and Cardinal have been decided by 14 points or more. The winning team likes to pour it on.
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Three things to watch
— Caleb Williams’ road show. Williams struggled at times on the road as a true freshman last year. He had a 59.2% completion percentage away from home and struggled in losses to Baylor and Oklahoma State. It’s a clean slate with the Trojans, and he was remarkable in the opener with an 86.4% completion percentage. Stanford ranked fourth in the Pac-12 in pass defense last season, and the Cardinal picked up where they left off against Colgate. Ky Blu Kelly is one of the best cornerbacks in the FBS, too. That matchup with Addison should be fun, especially in the red zone.
— Who wins on the ground? USC had 28 rushes for 208 yards in the opener, but it was a committee led by Williams, who had 68 rushing yards. Travis Dye, an Oregon transfer, had just five carries for 20 yards. Dye was on the field last year when Stanford upset Oregon 31-24 in overtime. He had 96 yards in that game, and he will be utilized more in this game. Stanford, meanwhile, is led by Smith, who had a breakout performance with 11 carries for 118 yards and two TDs. E.J. is the son of Pro Football Hall of Fame running back Emmitt Smith and should get 20 carries against a Trojans’ run defense that had a few hiccups in Week 1.
— Tanner McKee’s efficiency. McKee put up 308 yards of total offense on 27 plays in Week 1 – an average of 11.4 yards per play that was identical to Georgia’s Stetson Bennett. McKee is efficient. In 11 career starts, he hasn’t thrown an interception in seven of those games. He had a clean line against USC last season, too. He established a connection with new receivers Michael Wilson and John Humphreys in Week 1. They will test USC’s defense, which made the most of its opportunities with three interception returns for TDs against the Owls. Linebacker Shane Lee had eight tackles and one of those pick sixes. What wrinkles will new USC defensive coordinator Alex Grinch throw at McKee?
Stat that matters
These teams have played clean games in the last 10 matchups. There have only been 17 total turnovers in those games, and only one of those games had a three-turnover game by one team. Ball security matters in this game, and the school that wins the turnover battle is 5-1 in those 10 matchups. That puts more pressure on Williams to protect the football on the road.
USC vs. Stanford prediction
This is the Trojans’ moment to flex on the Pac-12 stage, but Stanford might be dangerous if they can keep a consistent ground game behind McKee and Smith to limit USC’s possessions. The Trojans had seven different players make a reception of 20 yards or more in Week 1, and Williams ability to distribute the football will be a difference-maker. The Trojans make too many chunk plays, and they pull away in the fourth quarter for a victory worthy of a top-10 team.
Final score: USC 38, Stanford 27
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