Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) announced on Saturday, November 14, 2026, an ambitious target to reach a daily production of three million barrels of crude oil within the next decade. This goal aims to restore the nation’s venezuela oil output to levels achieved before the industry’s significant decline, a challenge marked by current discrepancies in production reporting and substantial infrastructure needs.
The state oil company’s aspiration to achieve three million barrels daily by 2036 represents a return to production volumes seen in Venezuela during the late 1990s and early 2000s. The subsequent drop in output has been attributed to several factors, including the politicization of PDVSA, the departure of skilled personnel, the deterioration of facilities, management issues, and the impact of U.S. oil sanctions imposed in 2019, according to LaPatilla.com. Héctor Obregón, president of PDVSA, outlined a roadmap, projecting 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2026, an increase to 1.5 million bpd in 2027, and two million bpd within five years.
Official figures reported by PDVSA, and cited by EFE via LaPatilla.com, indicate that production reached 1.22 million bpd in October. However, these numbers contrast with assessments from international bodies. The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its November oil report, estimated Venezuela’s October production at 1.14 million bpd, following 1.16 million bpd in September, as reported by LaPatilla.com. Tenemos Noticias presented a slightly different IEA figure for October, at 1.15 million bpd, which was 20,000 bpd less than September. This difference of approximately 80,000 bpd between official and international estimates highlights the varied perspectives on the country’s current oil output.
Production Hurdles and Investment Needs
The IEA has emphasized that while Venezuela’s oil production saw an increase between January and August, this momentum has since diminished. Sustained recovery requires significant investment and maintenance, particularly concerning port infrastructure and electricity supply, according to the agency’s evaluation this week. Tenemos Noticias also echoed this, stating that rapidly increasing crude output requires substantial investment and maintenance in ports and electricity supply, noting that production had stagnated in recent months. The same outlet reported that Venezuelan oil production had fallen to 780,000 bpd in January, a period it linked to the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. military operation. Furthermore, Tenemos Noticias indicated that exports decreased by 180,000 bpd in October to 900,000 bpd, marking the lowest level since March.
PDVSA’s president, Héctor Obregón, announced that the company has signed 80 new agreements in the hydrocarbons sector, many of which are aimed at developing previously unexploited fields. These projects necessitate the joint construction of vital infrastructure, such as roads and power lines, with partners, acknowledging the extensive civil works required to translate investment announcements into actual production. In October, Reuters had reported that PDVSA aimed to sign 105 contracts by the end of 2026, having already secured 61. Obregón also stated intentions to increase refinery processing capacity from 350,000 bpd to between 500,000 and 600,000 bpd in the coming year.
Shifting Policies and Global Impact
The renewed push for foreign investment follows legislative changes enacted in January by the National Assembly, which is controlled by the ruling party. These reforms, promoted by Delcy Rodríguez, have created broader opportunities for private capital in an industry that had undergone increasing state control and nationalization under former leader Hugo Chávez. According to an analysis by Bloomberg Línea, the projected recovery is associated with an investment portfolio estimated at nearly $76 billion, expected to unfold over more than a decade.
For an international readership, Venezuela’s potential resurgence in the oil market holds significant implications. A substantial increase in the nation’s crude output could influence global oil supply and pricing dynamics, potentially impacting energy markets, trade balances for importing nations, and the overall geopolitical landscape of energy production. This shift towards greater private sector involvement also signals a change in economic policy that could attract diverse international stakeholders.
Despite these long-term projections and investment initiatives, labor groups and workers continue to voice concerns over insufficient wages within the oil sector, as reported by LaPatilla.com. The immediate challenge for Venezuela will be to demonstrate how much of the announced capital translates into tangible production increases, operational infrastructure improvements, and enhanced conditions for its workforce, moving beyond the reiteration of past production promises.
Image: LaPatilla.com
Sources consulted
- LaPatilla.com: El chavismo prometió recuperar en diez años el petróleo que Venezuela ya producía antes de su llegada
- Binance: PDVSA: Este año se prevé cerrar con una distribución diaria de 140.000 barriles de combustible
- Tenemos Noticias: Elevar rápidamente la producción de crudo de Venezuela necesita más inversiones, según la AIE
Adrian Velk is a global affairs journalist focused on breaking news, geopolitics, and societal trends. With a sharp eye for detail and a commitment to accuracy, he delivers timely reporting that helps readers understand the fast-moving world around them. His work blends factual depth with clear storytelling, making complex events accessible to a broad audience.
