Week 1 of the college football season was as good as advertised, as we saw numerous high-profile games live up to expectations. While the Week 2 slate doesn’t have as many must-watch games, there are more than enough enticing matchups, including Iowa (-3.5), yes Iowa, facing off against Iowa State in the Cy-Hawk Series and Kansas State (-8) hosting Missouri for the first time since 2011.
It’s tough not to overreact to what we saw in Week 1, but with more data at our fingertips, we’ll inevitably draw conclusions about certain teams. While the Week 1 odds were posted for several months, most of the Week 2 odds have only been on the board for a few days. This gives bettors a chance to potentially get ahead of the market before the point spreads sharpen up closer to kickoff.
Below, we’ll break down some Saturday’s more noteworthy games featuring teams ranked outside the AP Top-25.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Saturday, Sept. 10
Kansas State vs. Missouri (12 p.m., ESPN2)
Kansas State profiles as a dark horse contender in the Big 12, but there’s still some concern at the QB position, as ex-Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez has consistently struggled with his arm over his college career. Martinez completed 11-of-15 passes for only 53 yards in Kansas State’s 34-0 win over South Dakota as the Wildcats relied on their ground game to carry the offense. It’s tough to expect the Wildcats to rush for 291 yards again on a competent Missouri rush defense, and as a result, the Tigers do enough to stay within a TD on Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Missouri +8
Northwestern vs. Duke (12 p.m., FS1)
Northwestern and Duke both outperformed the betting markets in their first games, covering the spread with ease. Northwestern’s win over Nebraska was still more impressive than Duke’s drubbing of Temple as the Wildcats’ ability to consistently win at the line of scrimmage translates to success down the road. This point spread has been bet up a few points from opening, but given Northwestern has had a week to rest and watch film, look for the Wildcats to secure a comfortable home victory over a less physical Blue Devils bunch.
Pick: Northwestern -10
Penn State vs. Ohio (12 p.m., ABC)
Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke complied PFF’s third-highest offensive grade (92.4) in the Bobcats’ 41-38 victory over Florida Atlantic last week but going up against a much more stout Nittany Lions defense spells trouble this week. Penn State’s ability to be sound in pass coverage leads the Nittany Lions to a blowout win in their home opener.
Pick: Penn State -25.5
Georgia State vs. North Carolina (12 p.m., ESPNU)
North Carolina escaped Boone with a narrow 63-61 win over Appalachian State in one of the more entertaining Week 1 games and now hits the road for their second straight road game at Georgia State. The defense has issues, evident in their 85 total points allowed through two games, but the offense is good enough to outweigh the defensive struggles. QB Drake Maye continues to put up big numbers in the passing and running game, resulting in a double-digit win for the ‘Heels.
Pick: North Carolina -7.5
Army vs. UTSA (12 p.m., CBSSN)
UTSA suffered a heartbreaking 37-35 three-overtime loss to Houston in a game in which it held a 14-point third-quarter lead. The Roadrunners now look to get to 1-1 with a win over Army in West Point. UTSA’s ability to limit Army on the ground results in a road victory for the Roadrunners.
Pick: UTSA -2.5
Air Force vs. Colorado (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Colorado’s one of the weakest power conference teams in college football, and a 17.5-point spread against Air Force reiterates that notion. While it’s enticing to grab the points and back the Buffaloes, they sported the worst defensive rush grade per PFF in Week 1 (38.9) and now match up against an Air Force offense that posted the fourth-best offensive run grade last week (89.5). The triple option is too much for the Buffaloes to handle over 60 minutes as Air Forces dismantles the Buffaloes.
Pick: Air Force -17.5
Navy vs. Memphis (3:30 p.m., CBSSN)
Memphis goes from trying to defend the Air Raid to defending the triple option in back-to-back weeks, which has got to be an adjustment for their defense. While Navy posted a dud in Week 1, losing to Delaware 14-7, they had a chance to tie the game late in the fourth quarter despite fumbling three times throughout the game. The Midshipmen put forth a better performance in Week 2 to keep this one closer than the current spread indicates.
Pick: Navy +6
Iowa vs. Iowa State (4 p.m., BTN)
Iowa’s offense looks to bounce back after scoring only seven points (one FG, two safeties) in their Week 1 yawner over South Dakota State. The Hawkeyes’ offense couldn’t get in the endzone despite having above-average starting field position (58.3 yards) and six total scoring opportunities. Given how consistent their defense is, the offense does just enough for Iowa to get to 2-0 in the early season. Hunter Dekkers and the Cyclones’ offense come up short late in the fourth quarter as the Hawkeyes secure a four-plus point victory.
Pick: Iowa -3.5
Illinois vs. Virginia (4 p.m., ESPNU)
Illinois was so close to a 2-0 start to the season, but couldn’t get a stop in the final possession last Friday night against Indiana. The Fighting Illini better flush the loss quickly, as Virginia has the ability to keep this game close and maybe even win outright. Brennan Armstrong and Keytaon Thompson put too much stress on the Fighting Illini as the Cavaliers stay within 4.5 points.
Pick: Virginia +4.5
West Virginia vs. Kansas (6 p.m., Big 12+)
The Jayhawks are a bit undervalued in the betting markets and have the chance to keep things close in Morgantown. Even with West Virginia facing a less talented Kansas defense, it’s unlikely the Mountaineers’ offense continues to convert on third downs at a 50 percent clip (8-of-16) as they did against Pittsburgh last Thursday.
Pick: Kansas +13.5
Connecticut vs. Syracuse (7 p.m., CBSSN)
Syracuse was one of the biggest winners in Week 1, dismantling Louisville 31-7, winning outright as 4.5-point home underdogs. Dino Babers and company will get to 2-0 with a road win over Syracuse, but there’s a chance the Huskies stay within 23.5-points. Jim Mora’s bunch has overperformed in the betting markets, posting a 2-0 ATS record. While it’s undoubtedly a small sample size, the Huskies may only need to score 14 points to cover this game.
Pick: Connecticut +23
Auburn vs. San José State (7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
Auburn’s season-long prospects don’t look great, but they have the ability to outmatch San José State in Week 2. T.J. Finley and Tank Bigsby are too much for the Spartans’ defense to hold in check for 60 minutes as the Tigers win in a rout over SJSU.
Pick: Auburn -22.5
Nebraska vs. Georgia Southern (7:30 p.m., FS1)
Nebraska’s underperformed in the betting markets through the first two weeks of the season, posting an 0-2 ATS record. The offense needed some time to get going last week against North Dakota, but their ability to rely on the ground game spells trouble for a Georgia Southern defense that posted the 113th-best rush defense grade per PFF (56.7). The more carries Anthony Grant gets for Nebraska, the better. The Huskers finally notch a stress-free win over Georgia Southern.
Pick: Nebraska -23
Virginia Tech vs. Boston College (8 p.m., ACCN)
Both Virginia Tech and Boston College underwhelmed in their season openers, failing to win outright. Virginia Tech had a real chance to leave Norfolk with a win, but a late interception allowed Old Dominion to drive down the field for a game-winning TD. Boston College held an early lead over Rutgers but scored just seven second-half points in their 22-21 loss. However, Phil Jurkovec and Boston College bounce back in Week 2, keeping things close in Lane Stadium.
Pick: Boston College +3
Fresno State vs. Oregon State (10:30 p.m., FS1)
Oregon State put together a solid Week 1 performance in their 34-17 win over Boise State and now hits the road to face a stingy Fresno State bunch on Saturday night. Oregon State had some penalty and turnover issues against Boise, committing seven offensive penalties while turning the ball over three times. Given that the Beavers can shore up those issues, their defense can limit Bulldogs’ QB Jake Haener en route to a 2-0 start for Oregon State.
Pick: Oregon State -1
Arizona vs. Mississippi State (11 p.m., FS1)
Arizona got off to an impressive start with a 38-20 upset over San Diego State in the debut of Snapdragon Stadium. Ex-Washington State QB Jayden de Laura carved up the Aztecs’ defense, throwing for 299 yards on 22-of-35 passing for four TDs. However, staying competitive with Mississippi State is an entirely different task as the Bulldog’s air raid offense is much harder to contain than San Diego State’s ground game.
Pick: Mississippi State -11
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