Justin Herbert put together the best first two seasons in the NFL that anyone has ever had as a rookie and second-year quarterback. There’s a perception that the Chargers’ star passer has regressed big-time in Year 3.
That would be a misconception. Herbert has responded well to the challenges of the Chargers’ injury-marred 2022 season to put Los Angeles in position to get the AFC playoff berth that eluded his team in ’20 and ’21.
Herbert threw for 5,014 yards and 38 TDs while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt and rating 97.7 in efficiency last season. After 10 games in ’22, his 17-game pace is set for 4,628 yards and 26 TDs. His YPA is down to 6.3 and his passer rating is down to 89.0 going into Week 11’s critical Sunday night home game vs. the Chiefs.
But also consider Herbert has only six interceptions and despite averaging 44 dropbacks per game, and he’s taken the fewest percentage of sacks (3.0) in the NFL. He also played in several games through a painful ribs injury that he suffered in Kansas City in Week 2.
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Herbert also lost his dominant young left tackle, Rashawn Slater, to a torn Achilles’ in Week 3. Veteran center Corey Linsley missed two games early with a knee injury and an illness. Right tackle Trey Pipkins just missed his first game with a knee injury.
Bigger blows have come in the receiving corps, however. Go-to slot-heavy possession receiver Keenan Allen (hamstring) has played in only two games, a non-factor since Week 1 vs. the Raiders. The other dynamic starting wideout, Mike Williams (ankle), has missed the past two games. Jalen Guyton, expected to be the premier speedy deep threat, tore his ACL in Week 3 vs. the Jaguars. Key second tight end Donald Parham Jr. (hamstring) also was unable to stay on the field, now landing on injured reserve. Now top tight end Gerald Everett (groin) is hurting.
Running back Austin Ekeler has been the only reliable consistent passing game weapon for Herbert all season. The Chargers also have a non-existent rushing attack with Ekeler and others. They average only 84.9 yards per game, 30th in the NFL behind only the Rams and Buccaneers.
With no typical lockdown pass protection, none of the same field-stretching juice no deep shots being created off-play action and the need to rely much on complementary receivers Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter, Herbert has needed to adjust to a dink-and-dunk offense with Ekeler as the centerpiece. Herbert is getting the ball out quickly to protect the ball and himself. Combined with a necessary compressed passing game, that explains the low sacks with lowered YPA.
The complementary football also has been a letdown. Major injuries (Joey Bosa, J.C. Jackson) have ravaged Brandon Staley, which has become a depleted sieve against the run to put the Chargers in more negative game scripts. There’s been a heavy burden on Herbert to carry the Chargers while shorthanded and he’s responded well.
The bottom line is that Herbert’s Chargers are 5-4 and three of those victories have come via successful fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives by Herbert. He had five of those all of last season.
Herbert hasn’t put up the same eye-popping downfield passing numbers from his first two seasons. Most of the negativity attached to his 2022 play has stemmed from disappointed fantasy football managers.
In reality, Herbert has shown the mental and physical toughness to grind through an attrition-riddled season. Although he won’t get Slater or Guyton back, there’s promise that both Allen and Williams can return as the starting duo as early as Sunday night vs. the Chiefs.
Herbert hasn’t had that important duo healthy together since Week 1, when he lit up the Raiders for 279 yards and 3 TDs at 8.2 yards per attempt while rating 129.4. Palmer and Carter, with their starting experience, can go back to effective complementary roles to suddenly give Herbert great depth for the stretch run.
After the Chiefs, win or lose, the Chargers have a good shot to ensure at least an AFC wild card with Herbert. The Cardinals and Raiders’ defenses are very burnable on the road for him the next two weeks. Then come the toughest two games left, against the Dolphins and Titans, but those are at home against two weak pass defenses. Having Allen and Willams back can be game-changers in all of those matchups.
The Chargers have a chance to get red-hot and finish as high as 6-2 in the second half. An overall 11-6 mark would all but guarantee Herbert getting his first shot in the AFC playoffs.
Every young QB is bound to hit some early snags with changes in their offensive support and the way defenses adjust to play them. Herbert has fought through that with the fortitude, moxie and confidence that can’t be taught. The fact he didn’t fold should make the Chargers feel even better about his promising career, just ahead of giving him his lucrative post-rookie contract extension.
Herbert’s criticism has been unfounded and unfair. When digging deeper beyond Herbert’s flashy passing, his gritty leadership and intangibles are what still make him one of the league’s elite QBs, indispensable to the Chargers.
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