The Buccaneers were No. 2 in the NFL In total offense and scoring offense last season. With Tom Brady deciding not to retire and returning to Tampa Bay in 2022, they were expected be just as dangerous this season. Instead, the Bucs went into their Week 7 game in Carolina ranked 21st in both total and scoring offense.
Just like last week against the Steelers, the Buccaneers were heavy road favorites against the Panthers. And, just last week, the Buccaneers didn’t move the ball and score enough in a stunning upset.
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Tampa Bay’s 21-3 loss is the most shocking and inexplicable result of the 2022 season. Given how the Buccaneers have dominated the Panthers the previous two seasons, it is by far the worst loss Brady has suffered with his second team.
So, what’s the problem in Tampa Bay, and can it be fixed? The Buccaneers’ defense has done its best to hold up, but the offensive woes have made the unit crack. The bad complementary football has led to a 3-4 record heading into a Week 8 Thursday night home game vs. the Ravens.
A breakdown of why the Bucs have underachieved on offense this season:
1. Tom Brady is trying to do too much
Whatever off-the-field challenges he might be having, Brady is definitely pouring all his intensity into be the greatest GOAT he can be. But he hasn’t adjusted well to his new limitations. His 6.7 yards per attempt going into Week 7 were close to what he posted in his final season with the Patriots.
That key number will go down after his touchdown-less performance at Carolina (32-of-49 passing, 290 yards, 65.3 completion percentage, 81.2 passer rating, 5.8 YPA). Brady still has a strong arm and is confident in it, but there are fundamental issues where he can’t force throws downfield.
Had Mike Evans not dropped an easy would-be 75-yard TD strike early, things might have been different against the Panthers. That mistake was even more egregious given how much the Buccaneers have struggled to connect on those old “no risk-it, no biscuit” shot plays.
A big reason why Brady is the GOAT is that he can adjust his game to whatever his team needs in a particular season. He has made it work by going pass-happy before, but the best results have come from tempo and spreading the field more in the short to intermediate game. It’s not said often, but Brady needs to play within himself and accept that being 45 is reining him a bit.
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2. The Buccaneers are not running the ball enough
The Bucs were passing 66 percent of the time going into Week 7, second only to the Rams. That number also will go up with Brady dropping back 50 times (with one sack) while his team ran only 15 times (minus his one attempt).
There was no reason for throwing 77 percent of the time against the Panthers. A negative game script developed while the Bucs went down big in the fourth quarter, but they also didn’t commit to sticking with the run with Leonard Fournette and rookie Rachaad White when the game was tight early.
The Panthers’ biggest weakness all season has been against the run, and even with some injuries in the secondary, they are strong against the pass led by the rush of Brian Burns. Teams have pounded them on the ground. The Bucs are capable of having Fournette carry them when needed (see Week 1 against the Cowboys).
They could have worn down the Panthers’ defense and set up more efficient passing for Brady instead of choosing to become one-dimensional. They also could have helped their own usually stout defense, which eventually got worn down and gashed by the Christian McCaffrey-less committee of Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman.
Brady might want to throw often and that may be the DNA of offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, but not running enough with the passing game out of sync, including last week against the Steelers, is ridiculous.
3. There is no consistency from Brady’s key targets
Evans had the drop, but Chris Godwin wasn’t a big factor despite having a great matchup in the slot. The Bucs have sometimes used Russell Gage as a No. 3, but it didn’t happen against the Panthers, who were down top cornerback Jaycee Horn and had to resort to playing undrafted journeyman Tae Hayes.
Evans and Godwin, thrown off by the former’s suspension and the latter’s injury recovery, haven’t clicked playing off each other. Brady is inconsistent in his trust of Gage with Julio Jones (knee) not being an Antonio Brown-like option. Brady got desperate Sunday and started to involve Scotty Miller and Jaelen Darden, recent afterthoughts in the passing game. Between the route-running and hands breaking down at times and random usage by Brady, there has been limited flow.
4. There are a variety of offensive line issues
Brady and the Buccaneers do miss stalwart center Ryan Jensen and hope to have him back soon. But they also lost guard Ali Marpet to retirement and guard Alex Cappa to free agency in the offseason. Left tackle Donovan Smith missed time early with an elbow injury and has seen a dip in the quality of his blindside pass protection. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs has been the only rock on the line.
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In its current state, the starting five is built better to run block, yet another reason to be less pass-happy. The Buccaneers have been choppy up front since Week 1 and need Jensen back badly to be the glue with his leadership.
5. They have not used the tight ends well enough
The Buccaneers’ offense did have one positive against the Panthers. They started to unlock rookie tight end Cade Otton. He was the second-leading receiver to Evans with four catches for 64 yards. Otton needed extra time coming off ankle injury to immerse himself in the offense, but he’s starting to get it as a threat down the seam. An opportunity has opened up with the recent injury concerns for Cameron Brate (concussion, neck).
Brady wasn’t making Brate or veteran Kyle Rudolph a big part of the offense early. But there’s a reason why he clicked so much with Rob Gronkowski after reuniting with him for two seasons before Gronk retired. Gronkowski playing off Godwin inside and Evans’ size in the red zone was huge. Otton could be that presence in the second half of the season. Given the issues at wideout, he must remain a key third target behind Evans and Godwin going forward.
6. They miss Bruce Arians more than one thinks
Arians will be known as one of the most innovative modern offensive minds. The retired former Buccaneers head coach has been missed as extra support to Leftwich and a focused leader to whom Brady can sound off. There hasn’t been the same pop between Brady and his head coach with the defensive-minded Todd Bowles taking over for the 70-year-old Arians.
The Buccaneers had a different vibe in Brady’s first two seasons with them. There have been several factors in the bad mojo this year. But given this is the GOAT leading a very talented team, bet on them to correct it all with the NFC South title still in their back pocket as a guaranteed path to the playoffs.
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