Today in “things that could age poorly,” it’s time to talk about which teams will be the worst in the NFL this season.
It goes without saying, of course: anything can happen. But there are some teams that look like they’re dead set on getting the No. 1 overall pick in 2023. That means not only are they not going to win a lot of games next year, it’s in their best interest not to.
There are any number of reasons for a team to tank. But highest among them is the opportunity to land a prime player first overall. Add to the fact 2023 appears to have a wealth of top-level talent 2022 simply didn’t — including a potentially generational talent in Alabama linebacker Will Anderson — and there are plenty of incentives for teams to want to draft higher.
That isn’t to say they’ll do it on purpose. But these teams could find themselves in the best position to do so next year. Here’s a quick glimpse at some candidates for the worst team in the NFL in 2022, listed from least likely to be the worst to most likely.
NFL MOCK DRAFT: Alabama’s Will Anderson the consensus 2023 top pick
4. Washington Commanders
NFL SoS ranking: T-31
The Commanders are not a good team on paper, but they have one key thing going their way heading into this year: Their schedule is abominable.
The Commanders find themselves opening the year against the Jaguars and Lions. And even if you’re a Lions believer this year — and fair play to those who are — that isn’t a team that’s likely to have things figured out in Week 2.
While playing in the NFC East, which has been disappointing for several years running now, the Commanders also play the AFC South and NFC North, not to mention the Falcons as their NFC South analog.
Will that translate to wins? It’s hard to know for certain. But for all of Carson Wentz’s flaws last season with the Colts, if he can actively avoid the same ridiculous mistakes he made there, the Commanders could surprise some folks, particularly with Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson catching passes.
MORE: How Carson Wentz fits in Commanders’ offense
3. Seattle Seahawks
NFL SoS ranking: 11
The Seahawks are putting a bow on one of the least compelling quarterback battles in recent memory, with Geno Smith edging out Drew Lock for the starting role.
How excited that makes fans will depend on how closely they’ve followed the team. Neither player was going to fix the roster, which is very much in flux. The Seahawks are committed to their receivers, and seemingly no one else, having moved on from Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner.
The first year without a franchise quarterback is an adjustment for any team, but for a team like Seattle that didn’t seem to have a plan of succession in place, the adjustment inevitably becomes more difficult to make.
The Seahawks have a few saving graces. Perhaps Pete Carroll is able to raise the floor, or the defense exceeds expectations. That’s the only reason they aren’t ranked higher.
MORE: Pete Carroll says Seahawks could play both Geno Smith, Drew Lock
2. Atlanta Falcons
NFL SoS ranking: 9
The Falcons, like their bird brethren in Seattle, will be without a franchise cornerstone at quarterback for the first time in a long time this season.
Not only was Matt Ryan traded, but his exit was unceremonious, messy, and unbecoming toward a player who led the Falcons to their best years since 1998.
Marcus Mariota joins Arthur Smith in Atlanta to start, but cries for Desmond Ridder may ramp up sooner than later. He’s new, at the very least, whereas Mariota feels like a known quantity in the NFL.
The Falcons’ defense at least has some life in it, with A.J. Terrell being the highlight. But the precipitous fall of Deion Jones for his contract has hamstrung the franchise in recent years. Kyle Pitts remains the bright spot on offense, and he raises Atlanta’s floor. But it’s still dangerously close to ground level.
MORE: Eight NFL players facing make-or-break seasons in 2022
1. Houston Texans
NFL SoS ranking: 19
The Texans hope they have their quarterback in Davis Mills, but that roster around him is horrendous.
Even while playing the entire AFC South twice in a year and the NFC East, the Texans have the lowest projected win total in the league at 4.5, per DraftKings. Things are that bad.
Dameon Pierce emerged as a preseason star, while Brandin Cooks remains one of the NFL’s most underappreciated receivers. But the only bright spot on defense is rookie Derek Stingley Jr., and most NFL fans know better than to get too invested in the success of a rookie cornerback. There will be some growing pains.
The good news for the Texans is, if they do pick first (and Mills isn’t the primary cause), they have a clear line to Anderson, who would immediately make their defense better. If, however, Mills does struggle, the Texans are going to have to do some soul searching about the direction of their franchise under first-year coach Lovie Smith.
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