The 2022 NBA season tips off Tuesday, October 18, launching what should be the most heavily-bet pro basketball campaign ever. Sports betting is now legal in 34 states in addition to Washington D.C., while the NBA continues to rise in popularity each year. You may not be quite ready to bet on individual games just yet, as many things can change between now and the regular-season opener. But now is a perfect time to get your futures bets in, especially for 2022-23 NBA Finals champion.
John Schuhmann and NBA.com recently released the annual NBA GM survey, which always provides some interesting tidbits of information from some of the game’s most knowledgeable minds. Among the survey’s most eye-catching results, 43 percent of GMs picked the Milwaukee Bucks (+650) to win it all this season. The defending-champion Warriors (+600) earned the second-most votes (25%), just ahead of the reigning Eastern Conference-champion Celtics (+575), who received 21 percent of votes. The Clippers (+675) were the only other team featured, garnering 11 percent of GM votes.
That’s about as chalky as it gets from the execs. All four of those teams are the consensus top four on Caesars and most other sportsbooks’ futures odds boards. Rounding out the top five on Caesars, the Nets (+800) are the only team under -1000 who did not make the general managers’ top championship picks.
Of course, countless GMs — and pundits, analysts, writers, and talking heads — get their Finals picks wrong each year. The eventual NBA Finals champs could easily be outside the list of favorites as of right now, as we have seen so often in recent history.
Let’s take a look at Caesars Sportsbook’s full odds board for the 2023 NBA Finals, and then discuss the contenders before ultimately making our picks.
2023 NBA Finals Odds
| Celtics | +575 |
| Warriors | +600 |
| Bucks | +650 |
| Clippers | +675 |
| Nets | +800 |
| Suns | +1300 |
| 76ers | +1400 |
| Nuggets | +1600 |
| Lakers | +1800 |
| Grizzlies | +2000 |
| Heat | +2200 |
| Mavericks | +2700 |
| Pelicans | +2800 |
| Cavaliers | +3000 |
| Timberwolves | +3500 |
| Raptors | +4500 |
| Hawks | +5000 |
| Bulls | +7000 |
| Trail Blazers | +12500 |
| Knicks | +15000 |
| Hornets | +17500 |
| Kings | +30000 |
| Wizards | +30000 |
| Pistons | +40000 |
| Magic | +50000 |
| Thunder | +50000 |
| Jazz | +100000 |
| Rockets | +100000 |
| Pacers | +100000 |
| Spurs | +100000 |
2023 NBA Finals: A wide-open race?
We already talked about the core five favorites, and will discuss them more shortly. Outside the top five, the Suns (+1300) always lurk as a contender and have been to the Finals within the past two years. The 76ers (+1400) got better this offseason, and a full year of healthy Joel Embiid and James Harden could destroy the NBA. The Nuggets (+1600) also improved, putting much-needed shooting and depth around back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic.
We can’t leave out the elder statesmen. The Lakers (+1800) still have two of the best players in the world in LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and could win their second championship in four seasons with a little health. The Heat (+2200), who lost to the Lakers in the 2020 Finals, also have a superb veteran core led by two-way stud Jimmy Butler.
Then there are the young bucks, who should never be counted out. The Grizzlies (+2000) trampled through the league behind breakout superstar Ja Morant last season, and could take another step forward this season. Perennial MVP candidate Luka Doncic and the Mavericks (+2700) improved their front court over the offseason, making the superstar’s life much easier. The Pelicans (+2800) have Zion looking fit and focused. The Cavaliers (+3000) added Donovan Mitchell to a group that already made a ton of noise last season. The Timberwolves (+3500) put a massive package together to plug Ruby Gobert into its only glaring hole.
Even the fringe squads in the NBA have plenty of promise. The Raptors (+4500) have plenty of talent and superb coaching. The Hawks (+5000) added Dejounte Murray to a backcourt that already enjoys long-range assassin Trae Young. The Bulls (+7000) have a scoring tandem of DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, not to mention multiple key role players. Even the surprisingly-deep Blazers (+12500) have promise if Damian Lillard can stay healthy for a full campaign.
Without further ado, let’s discuss our best bets, top sleepers, and favorite long shots to win the 2023 NBA Finals.
2023 NBA Finals: Best Bets
Boston Celtics (+575)
The Celtics cruised through a relatively-easy path to the NBA Finals this past summer, but ultimately lost to a hotter, more focused, and more experienced Warriors team. In the offseason, GM Brad Stevens did an amazing job addressing the weaknesses Boston showed in the championship round, primarily ball-handling, depth, and outside shooting. The Celts traded for Malcolm Brogdon, a versatile guard with playmaking skills who could easily land the Sixth Man award this season. They also added sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari, although an ACL injury sustained during the FIBA World Cup could sideline him for the season. Another key offseason acquisition was Blake Griffin, who will provide veteran leadership and some rebounding for this young (and sometimes small) squad. The key questions: will the C’s play as well under interim coach Joe Mazzulla as they did for shamed head coach Ime Udoka, who is suspended for the season? And will center Robert Williams (knee) return at full strength, or will Boston once again be asking way too much from veteran big Al Horford? We know what we will get out of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart at this point. It’s the ‘others’ who will make or break their run at banner No. 18 this season. We’re betting they make it happen and finally get over the hump for the first time since the Piece/Garnett era.
Los Angeles Clippers (+675)
The Clippers are a fascinating squad from top to bottom, and they will be extremely difficult to beat at full strength. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, like Tatum and Brown, are easily among the top wing tandems in pro hoops. And they are stocked full of shooters, lock-down defenders, playmakers, and savvy veterans. John Wall was a fantastic addition to a squad that consistently relied on Reggie Jackson to run point — and be the go-to scorer — in key moments the past year and a half. Isaiah Hartenstein dings L.A.’s big-man depth a bit, but don’t be surprised if this team wins a bunch of games with a small-ball lineup. One of the common denominators of recent NBA champions has been depth, and the Clips are arguably the deepest team in the NBA. Fingers crossed they stay off the injury report for the long run.
Other strong bets: Milwaukee Bucks (+650), Golden State Warriors (+600)
2023 NBA Finals: Top Value Picks
Philadelphia 76ers (+1400)
With James Harden seemingly in shape and Joel Embiid as hungry and pissed off as ever, beware of the 76ers lurking in the field of fringe contenders. Philadelphia has strong young talent around its superstar duo: Tyrese Maxey continues to evolve as a scorer, Matisse Thybulle is the most underrated perimeter defender in the league, and offseason addition De’Anthony Melton is better on both ends of the court than most people realize. Philly also brought in veteran glue guy and defensive maestro P.J. Tucker, who finds himself on another contender and continues to serve as the 2020s version of Robert Horry. Also a knock-down corner-three shooter, Tucker will take some of the offensive pressure off Tobias Harris. Montrezl Harrell will also provide some bench scoring and plenty of hustle points. Don’t sleep on Philly — this squad is more than capable of winning it all.
Memphis Grizzlies (+2000)
How can the Grizzlies be listed at +2000 just months after they scorched the NBA Earth in the 2021-22 season? This is a squad that has all the necessary components of an NBA champion: great offense led by a superstar scorer in Ja Morant, great outside shooting led by Desmond Bane, great defense from every position, and great coaching. We fail to understand how more time and experience makes the Grizzlies less equipped to contend for a title, but we’ll gladly take these generous odds.
Other solid values: Phoenix Suns (+1300), Miami Heat (+2200)
2023 NBA Finals: Favorite long shots
Cleveland Cavaliers (+3000)
Everyone loves the addition of Donovan Mitchell, perhaps the final piece of the puzzle for an awesome starting five that features 2021-22 Rookie of the Year runner-up Evan Mobley and All-Stars Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen. Questions remain about this squad’s depth — and who will primarily fill its small forward spot — but this team looks more than able to make some noise right here and now.
Minnesota Timberwolves (+3500)
Another squad that went all-in for a missing piece, the Wolves sent a monstrous amount of assets to Utah this offseason to land coveted big man and multiple DPOY winner Rudy Gobert. Minnesota now has a board king and rim protector on top of Karl Anthony-Towns, the best big-man shooter in the game, and emerging superstar Anthony Edwards. You won’t find much value outside the range of +2200, but this Wolves squad might be worth a modest wager on the off-chance everything clicks.
Other possible long shot contenders: Dallas Mavericks (+2700), Toronto Raptors (+4500), Atlanta Hawks (+5000)
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