Kansas is 5-0, ranked No. 19 in the AP Poll and prepared to welcome ESPN’s “College GameDay” for Saturday’s matchup against No. 17 TCU.
You know what all that means?
Lance Leipold, 58, will be one of the hottest names in the 2022 college football coaching carousel. It’s the ultimate Catch 22 for the Jayhawks, which are enjoying the limelight after years in the college football basement. Leipold addressed those coaching rumors Monday.
“We’re happy here,” Leipold said via the Associated Press. “We have no plans on going anywhere.”
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So, that is the plan for now. Leipold is doing his best to maintain the focus on the current season, where Kansas has a chance to be a factor in a wide-open Big 12 race. Yet two Big Ten West schools – Nebraska and Wisconsin – could change those plans. Leipold might be content at Kansas, but it’s on either the Huskers or Badgers to change that. Which school would be the better fit? Should Leipold be tempted to leave Kansas?
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The case for Nebraska
Leipold would be a logical candidate to replace Scott Frost, who was fired on Sept. 11 after a 1-2 start. Leipold would have far less pressure than Frost, who was the quarterback for Nebraska’s national championship team in 1997.
The difference would be Leipold would have time to be successful without that prodigal son pressure. Take the rebuild at Buffalo, for example. The Bulls were 17-18 in the three years before his arrival, and just 13-13 in his first three seasons. That patience paid off, however. Buffalo had a 24-10 record, a 10-win season and made three straight bowl games from 2019-21 under Leipold.
He has accomplished that on an accelerated pace at Kansas. Given the resources at Nebraska and the larger spotlight in the Big Ten, this would be a make-sense move for Leipold – who has worked his way up the coaching ladder with patience.
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The case against Nebraska
If Frost couldn’t win there, then who can? This isn’t a job like Kansas, where they will celebrate making a bowl game. Nebraska comes with soul-crushing expectations considering the program hasn’t won a national championship since 1997 and hasn’t had a 11-win season since Frank Solich was coach in 2001.
Leipold would be charged with being the coach who establishes the Huskers’ identity in the Big Ten once and for all – a job made more difficult from a brand perspective with the additions of USC and UCLA. If you add those two schools, then Nebraska would have the 12th best record in the Big Ten in the College Football Playoff era at 45-55. Maryland (41-56) isn’t that far behind. That is a jarring stat that speaks to the decline Nebraska has seen in the last quarter century.
This isn’t a mere makeover. It would be a full-fledged rebuild. If it took three years at Buffalo. How long would it take for Nebraska?
The case for Wisconsin
Wisconsin fans know all about Leipold’s exploits at the Division III level. He went 109-6 with six national championships with Wisconsin-Whitewater from 2007-14. Leipold accomplished that while dealing with Mount Union. Wisconsin-Whitewater was 6-1 against Mount Union in D-III championship games with Leipold. He slayed an Ohio State-sized D-III beast.
Wisconsin hasn’t beat Ohio State since 2010. The 52-31 loss to the Buckeyes on Sept. 24 showed the disproportionate gap between those two programs. Leipold could steer Wisconsin’s offense in a new direction – one that could actually compete with Ohio State at some point. Don’t believe it? Kansas ranks 12th in the FBS with 41.6 points per game, and quarterback Jalon Daniels (11 TD passes) has emerged as one of the most-exciting players in the FBS.
If Wisconsin is serious about a makeover, then a Wisconsin native would be perfect to make that happen.
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The case against Wisconsin
Interim coach Jim Leonhard is popular, and this audition for the job feels similar to what Jake Dickert did with Washington State last season. All Leonhard has to do is right the ship against a friendly schedule over the next seven games. The job is Leonhard’s to lose.
The expectations would be higher at Wisconsin given the program is 78-29 in the College Football Playoff era – which among Power 5 programs ranks behind Alabama (109-10), Ohio State (98-11), Clemson (104-13), Georgia (91-21) and Oklahoma (89-21). They are not looking for a rebuild in Madison. They are looking to challenge Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in the Big Ten again. Nine wins is the floor here.
Does Leipold sound like a coach running into that job right now?
“Paul Chryst is a close friend,” Leipold said via the AP. “I’ve known Paul since his late father tried to recruit me to Wisconsin-Platteville. That’s a good family, a good man. That’s a guy who averaged nine wins a year and got let go. But you know, that’s a part of what we signed up for these days. It’s a changing world in a lot of different ways and that’s unfortunate.”
Verdict: Leipold to Lincoln
How happy is Leipold at Kansas? The Jayhawks are a ruby-slippers story that has grabbed college football’s attention, but that attention span can be short-lived with one or two losses in a cannibalistic Big 12 conference. Leipold has one more move in him, and Wisconsin and Nebraska are the best fits.
It would be great for the Big Ten to add a coach with that track record of success to the conference. With Leipold, Wisconsin might be able to make that jump to the College Football Playoff time. Nebraska would at least be competitive in a Big Ten West Division where they should be producing on the Bo Pelini scale – which means nine wins every year. Leipold could do that when it feels more like the ceiling over the first few years.
That is why Wisconsin might be the better fit, but Nebraska is the more logical landing spot for Leipold.
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