Aaron Judge hit 52 home runs as a rookie.
Expectations soared. Not just wispy hopes, but actual expectations. Judge skipped right past rookie romanticism and into the crushing weight of Yankee Expectations with his incredible debut season. Shadows aren’t supposed to weigh anything, but Ruth and Maris and Mantle and DiMaggio loomed.
Yankee immortality seemed so simple, so inevitable. Judge hit those 52 home runs as a rookie in 2017, and there were so many reasons to expect more. He wasn’t just a home-run hitter; Judge also led the AL with 128 runs scored and 127 walks, and his .422 on-base percentage was second in the league, behind only Mike Trout’s .442. And if he could just find a way to cut down on those strikeouts — 208 of ’em as a rookie — how many more home runs would he hit in pinstripes.
MORE: The story of Aaron Judge, a guy named Lasagna and the catch that almost was
That was five seasons ago. His 2018 and 2019 seasons were shortened by injuries — he played 112 and 102, respectively — and his 2020 season was shortened by the global pandemic and time on the IL; Judge played only 28 of the team’s 60 games. Judge stayed mostly healthy last year and finished fourth in the AL MVP race, but his numbers across the board fell short of what he’d done in that rookie seasons — 39 homers, down from 52; a .373 on-base percentage, down from .422; a 149 OPS+, down from 171; and a 6.0 bWAR, down from 8.0.
Still, obviously, an outstanding season.
But not a season that made immortality feel inevitable, especially when Judge was set to turn 30 early in the 2022 campaign. The Yankees’ front office seemed to feel the same way, offering him a lucrative extension, but not an offer-you-can’t-refuse contract. Judge turned it down, betting on himself going into his free-agent offseason.
And now here we are late in the 2022 regular season, and Aaron Judge has 62 home runs.
“This,” former Yankees teammate CC Sabathia told The Sporting News in a recent phone interview, “is something I’ve been waiting for him to turn into since 2017.”
Aaron Judge is baseball’s best power hitter, but he’s not just a home-run hitter. Somehow, he snuck up on everyone with his chase for the Triple Crown; leading the AL in homers and RBIs has been a long-decided race, but his charge into the mix for the batting title was swift. He’s tailed off a little in that race, but is still within striking distance.
I’ll admit, this whole “Oh yeah, and by the way Aaron Judge could win the AL Triple Crown, too” thing kinda snuck up on me.
Morning of Aug. 20
Luis Arraez, .335 batting average
Xander Bogaerts, .303
Judge, .293Morning of Sept. 19
Arraez, .317
Judge, .316
Bogaerts, .316— Ryan Fagan (@ryanfagan) September 19, 2022
MORE: Complete list of MLB Triple Crown winners
And he’s often played center field for the Yankees because nobody else seems capable. Oh, and he’s hit in the leadoff spot, too, because that’s been a sore spot for the club, as well. The on-base percentage that dipped from .422 as a rookie to an average of .378 from 2018 to 21? That was back up to .426 coming into Tuesday.
And, folks, he found a way to cut down on those strikeouts, from a 30.4 strikeout percentage as a rookie to about 25 this season. Oh, and you know how he has those 62 home runs? Nobody else in the majors has more than Kyle Schwarber’s 46. That’s just a silly gap.
“Aaron Judge, I think, is the best player on the planet right now,” Matt Carpenter told The Sporting News in August. “I watch him. I get a front-row seat to it. I’ve joked, he reminds me of the 14-year-old that lied on his birth certificate to play in the Little League World Series. He’s in another league, he’s that good.”
Let’s dig into some other numbers.
Judge has 30 homers at home and 32 on the road. So much for the myth that Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch is fueling his run at history. And coming into Tuesday, he was batting .323 against right-handed pitchers this year, .271 against lefties. So much for the idea that he’s only mashing southpaws.
And his splits with runners in scoring position vs. his numbers with nobody on base are really something to behold. Coming into play Tuesday:
Nobody on: .401 OBP, .713 SLG
w/ RISP: .520 OBP, .721 SLG
Oh, and with two outs and runners in scoring position? He’s batting .405 with an eye-popping .590 on-base percentage. Nobody wants to face him.
And the thing is, none of this is too surprising.
“It’s just been health,” Sabathia said. “If he’d stayed healthy two or three years ago, he’d be doing this. It’s just been health. That’s the only thing, this whole time. There’s not many guys that can do what he can do in the box.”
Welcome to Yankee immortality, Aaron Judge.
Your arrival wasn’t immediate, but apparently it really was inevitable.
Hits: 0
