World Cup group betting odds: Best bets, picks, and expert predictions for teams to advance or win group at Qatar 2022

The FIFA World Cup always provides surprises, and it’s our job to spot them before they happen.

For the 2022 tournament in Qatar, there’s a new wrinkle to consider. Teams will have to adjust to the November and December timing, forced by the vicious heat in the Middle Eastern nation.

Yet this tournament will still surely have the unmistakable cut of a typical World Cup. Favorites will roll, underdogs will shine, players will seize the gargantuan moment, and others will shrink.

Here are the best picks and predictions for the 2022 World Cup group stage, which will set the scene for the 16-team knockout tournament to determine the overall winner.

MORE: World Cup best bets & predictions for today’s matches and rest of tournament

World Cup group odds to advance

Before making our picks, let’s take a look at the odds for each group at the 2022 FIFA World Cup. First, here are odds for teams to finish top-two in their group and advance to the knockout stage.

Odds to qualify for knockout stage

All odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), and SkyBet (UK). Odds as of November 16.

Group A

Group B

Group C

Group D

Group E

Group F

Group G

Group H

World Cup group odds to win

While picking the teams to qualify for the knockout stage is one thing, selecting the correct group winner is a whole other animal. Winning the group is a positive for teams as they draw a second-place finisher in the Round of 16, which theoretically results in an easier opponent.

MORE: Complete Sporting News football betting guide

Odds to win their group

All odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), and SkyBet (UK). Odds as of November 16.

Group A

Group B

Group C

Group D

Group E

Group F

Group G

Group H

World Cup group betting picks

With the odds settled, we make our predictions for the 2022 FIFA World Cup group stage.

The favorites have brutal odds, meaning we have to look mostly elsewhere to find room for profit. There’s one lock below, plus a few upsets that could provide positive payouts.

2022 World Cup group stage lock

When it comes to locks, it’s tough to find enticing odds. Brazil are the tournament favorites, and while they’ll surely win Group G, but -350 odds are just not good enough to be worth the inherent risk.

So we look to their South American rivals, who are equally good value to win their soft group, but have better odds. Mexico will struggle to score with their attacking woes, and Saudi Arabia will struggle to challenge. Poland are the biggest threat, but Argentina should be able to muscle their way through.

Pick: Argentina to win Group C (-250 on BetMGM)

2022 World Cup group stage upsets

The value on upset picks are far more enticing, and with so few matches to separate the teams, it’s easy to fathom teams with plus odds to end up finding a way through.

This year’s Group of Death is Group E, where Spain and Germany were both drawn alongside Japan and Costa Rica. It’s a brutal gauntlet of worldwide talent that should see every single game produce a mouth-watering 90 minutes of tense action.

While Spain and Germany will be considered clear favorites to advance, they both have significant flaws. Germany are thin in the attack, and while Jamal Musiala will be primed for a breakout tournament, he’ll have little help after injuries to Timo Werner, Marco Reus, and Florian Wirtz. Spain, meanwhile, feature a young and inexperienced squad that lacks defensive teeth.

Japan is a talented side, with Takefusa Kubo back healthy and Takumi Minamino making the most of his limited action at Monaco. The Samurai Blue should secure enough results to see a way through, and leave one of the two big European sides on the outside looking in.

Pick: Japan to advance from Group E (+300 on BetMGM)

Uruguay are second-favorite to finish atop Group H, behind favorites Portugal. That’s essentially down to European pedigree and has less to do with actual team strength.

Portugal have always been a defensive side, but they lack tooth in the attack and will struggle to secure points in this group. The absence of Diogo Jota will be decisive, with Cristiano Ronaldo in very poor form. Joao Palhinha is a defensive midfield revelation, but he will have his hands full shielding a back line that will likely still feature 39-year-old Pepe at center-back alongside Ruben Dias.

Uruguay, meanwhile, are bursting at the seams with in-form talent. Darwin Nunez is finding his stride at the right time, Rodrigo Betancur finished the Premier League first-half in white-hot form, and Facundo Torres is a welcome addition to the front line. Diego Godin and Ronald Araujo are both fit at the back, and Lucas Torreira has done well at Galatasaray. This team is primed for a stellar group stage.

Pick: Uruguay to win Group H (+200 on BetMGM)

Canada are one of the most disrespected teams at the World Cup, and they’re going to surprise a lot of people. Not only are they fun to watch, they’re a cohesive group that features a collective that’s greater than the sum of their parts.

John Herdman has worked wonders with this team, integrating bright European talents Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David alongside useful MLS pieces like Alistair Johnston and Richie Lareya. Stephen Eustaquio and Cyle Larin are both in great form for their European clubs, and Milan Borjan is always an injection of energy.

Meanwhile, their group is there for the taking. Croatia are vulnerable as an aging squad can be beat even with Luka Modric willing them to results, while Morocco’s pre-World Cup results are unconvincing. Do not be dissuaded by Canada’s draw with Bahrain, as that match featured none of their European stars. Les Rouges should be a dangerous presence in Qatar, and an underestimated one at that.

Pick: Canada to advance from Group F (+250 on BetMGM)