We’re down to the final matchday in the group stage, and all 16 teams advancing to the knockouts will be known by Friday, December 2.
Only three teams have clinched a berth to the Round of 16 (France, Brazil, Portugal), but they have yet to secure the top spot in their respective group.
Tiebreakers are sure to come into play with a number of groups. Those are listed in their entirety further below.
The Sporting News runs through the qualifying scenarios for each group below.
MORE: All the details for the World Cup Round of 16
World Cup Group A scenarios to advance
The two available berths have yet to be clinched in Group A. Three teams are in the running for the two spots on the final day.
- Q = Qualified to Round of 16
- E = Eliminated
Netherlands
- Win vs. QAT: NED advance. They can finish in 1st or 2nd pending ECU result and potential tiebreakers.
- Draw vs. QAT: NED advance. They’d finish 2nd at minimum, or possibly 1st if ECU also draw, pending tiebreakers.
- Lose vs. QAT: NED could advance or suffer elimination. It depends on the result of the other game and potential tiebreakers.
Ecuador
- Win vs. SEN: ECU advance. They can finish 1st or 2nd pending NED result and potential tiebreakers.
- Draw vs. SEN: ECU advance. They can finish 1st or 2nd pending NED result and potential tiebreakers.
- Lose vs. SEN: ECU can advance as 2nd if NED also lose pending tiebreakers. ECU are eliminated if NED win or draw.
Senegal
- Win vs. ECU: SEN advance. They can finish 1st of 2nd pending NED result. No tiebreakers involved.
- Draw vs. ECU: SEN can advance only if NED lose pending tiebreakers. If NED win or draw, SEN are eliminated.
- Lose vs. ECU: SEN are eliminated.
Qatar
- vs. NED: The host nation is already eliminated.
World Cup Group B scenarios to advance
All four teams are technically in with a shot to qualify to the Round of 16 heading into the final matchday.
| Team | PTS | GP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. England | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 |
| 2. Iran | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| 3. USA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 4. Wales | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 |
- Q = Qualified to Round of 16
- E = Eliminated
England
- Win vs. WAL: ENG advance as group winner.
- Draw vs. WAL: ENG advance as 1st or 2nd pending USA-IRN result and potential tiebreakers.
- Lose vs. WAL: ENG can be eliminated or advance based on tiebreakers with WAL or tiebreakers with WAL and IRN.
Iran
- Win vs. USA: IRN advance as 1st or 2nd depending on ENG result and potential tiebreakers.
- Draw vs. USA: IRN advance if WAL does not win. IRN eliminated on goal difference with WAL victory.
- Lose vs. USA: IRN eliminated from World Cup.
USA
- Win vs. IRN: USA would advance as 1st or 2nd depending on ENG result and potential tiebreakers.
- Draw or Lose vs. IRN: USA are out of the World Cup.
Wales
- Win vs. ENG: WAL would qualify if USA-IRN draw. If USA or IRN win, then WAL would have to beat ENG by four goals or more to qualify.
- Draw or Lose vs. ENG: Eliminated from World Cup.
How many teams advance from World Cup group stage?
A total of 16 teams advance from the group stage to the Round of 16, as the name of the round suggests.
Given a total of eight groups, it’s only the top two teams in each group that will advance and build out the field for the Round of 16.
The knockout bracket starting with the Round of 16 is fixed and predetermined prior to the tournament. The first- and second-place finishers in each group (A1 & A2, B1 & B2, etc.) are slotted into the bracket as previously designated.
How do teams advance in World Cup play?
The four nations in each group play a round-robin style format with each team playing the other three opponents.
A victory is rewarded with three points, a draw with one point, and a loss with none. The teams are ranked within the group by the number of points obtained across the three group matches.
The top two finishers in the group based on points advance to the knockout rounds, beginning with the Round of 16 in 2022.
If teams are level on points, there are established tiebreakers to resolve those situations and determine the final placement (see below).
Once teams reach the single-elimination knockouts, it’s survive and advance. If teams are tied after 90 minutes in the knockouts they’ll go to extra time, and penalty kicks, if necessary.
What are the World Cup group tiebreakers?
If teams are tied on points in their group — three for a win, one for a draw, and none for a loss — then the following tiebreakers will be used, as outlined in the official tournament rules (page 21):
- Overall goal difference: Superior goal difference in all group matches (goals scored minus goals conceded);
- Overall goals scored: Most goals scored in all group matches;
- Head-to-head points: Most points in group matches between tied teams only;
- Head-to-head goal difference: In group matches between tied teams only;
- Head-to-head goals scored: Most goals scored in group matches between tied teams only;
- Disciplinary points (‘Fair Play’): As per a FIFA formula based on yellow and red cards;
- Drawing of lots.
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