World Cup predictions, best bets today: Betting tips, expert picks for Sunday, November 20

Breathe it in: the 2022 FIFA World Cup is, at long last, here.

The opening game kicks off today as Ecuador take on hosts Qatar. As per FIFA World Cup tradition, the host opens the tournament on the first day and no host has ever lost this inaugural match.

The host bump is a real thing. In the 2010 FIFA World Cup, South Africa were not expected to be competitive in a brutal group that included France, Uruguay, and Mexico. Yet the hosts nearly pulled off a knockout stage qualification, beating France on the final day but missing out on goal differential.

Qatar will look to compete in a Group A that is wide open, although the mountain to climb is huge with games against Netherlands and Senegal to come after the opener.

Check out all our picks below.

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Qatar vs Ecuador best bet, prediction

• Kickoff time: 11 a.m. ET (Sunday, Nov. 20)
• Best Bet #1: Under 2.5 total goals / Odds: -200, x2 units (BetMGM)
• Best Bet #2: Both teams to score / Odds: +110 (BetMGM)
• Best Bet #3: Enner Valencia anytime scorer / Odds: +210 (BetMGM)
• Prediction (Win/Draw): Draw

Best Bet: Under 2.5 total goals, Both teams to score 

This is a tough game to parse out. All the numbers suggest that the under 2.5 goals will take flight, and as a result, the betting market has adjusted. The under is at a super short -200 hit, and for good reason — in their last 6 matches, Ecuador have played to four 0-0 draws and seen a grand total of two goals scored by both teams combined. Extend that even further, and across Ecuador’s last 10 games, nine of them have hit the under.

Yet Qatar can score goals on their day, and the host bump is real — South Africa managed a 1-1 draw with Mexico on the opening match of the 2010 World Cup as massive underdogs. For that reason, we’re playing both sides, with a two-unit ride on the under 2.5 goals, plus a pick of both teams to score. The best possible result here is a 1-1 draw, which triggers both bets. Still, if either comes off, we’ll break even.

If you want just one pick, you can try an Asian total of under 2.0 goals at much more palatable odds, and you would still push if there are exactly two goals scored. But for the double bet outlined previously, the under 2.5 total goals is more appropriate.

Best Bet: Enner Valencia anytime scorer

Finally, while it’s hard to know how the game will play out, it’s likely that Enner Valencia will be on the scoresheet for Ecuador. Despite reaching 33 years old, Valencia is in sensational form for Turkish club Fenerbahce this season, with an Erling Haaland-like 13 goals in 12 Super Lig games, including a goal in three straight heading into the World Cup break.

Couple that with Valencia’s exceptional national team record of 35 goals in 74 games, and if anyone is going to put the ball into the back of the net for Ecuador, it’s going to be the grizzled veteran, who is head-and-shoulders above anyone else as the clear goalscoring threat on the South American side.

Since the start of October 2021, while Enner Valencia has been on the field for Ecuador, he has scored four of the team’s seven goals. All three of the other goals were scored on set-pieces, meaning Valencia was the only goalscorer from open play for the team in the last calendar year while on the field. At over 2/1 odds, this is a no-brainer, even for a game that’s not expecting many goals to be tabbed.

World Cup soccer best bets records

Editor’s note: We’ll be tracking all of Kyle’s picks and best bets below. Also listed here is his overall record including the club competitions so far since October 3, 2022.

2022 World Cup futures picks

Below is a reminder of the list of pre-tournament World Cup futures selections:

Outright winner pick: Brazil to win the competition, as the Selecao have the most talented and deepest squad in the field.

Golden Boot winner pick: On the back of that pick, Neymar to win the Golden Boot as the tournament’s top scorer, especially in light of the form he’s in for his club team PSG.

Group winners pick: Argentina to win Group C as a favorite, plus Uruguay to win Group H as an underdog to Portugal.

Group qualifiers pick: Two upset picks here are Japan to qualify from a difficult Group E, requiring them to pip one of Spain or Germany. Then, Canada grabbing an upset in Group F and advancing past the likes of Belgium or Croatia.

Quarterfinal pick: Specifically, it’s a team not to make it to the final eight. Defending champions France have a soft group, but injuries and poor form could come back to haunt them early in the knockout stage.