World Cup predictions, odds, best bets today: Betting tips, expert picks for Saturday, November 26

The second round of group stage play is now fully under way as Groups C and D get back to action.

The first set of Group C matches produced the stunning upset of Saudi Arabia over Argentina, and now they’ll hope to secure knockout stage advancement with what would be a similar performance over Poland. Meanwhile, Argentina will look to put that disaster behind them and use Mexico as a punching bag for their frustration.

Group D features defending champions France who pummeled Australia in their opening match despite a host of injuries. Now they will hope to back that up with a similar performance against Denmark, who is thought to be their biggest challenger in the group after taking Les Bleus down twice in summer Nations League play. Tunisia will hope to bury Australia and set themselves up for a spot in the knockout stage.

Check out all our picks below.

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Tunisia vs. Australia prediction, best bet

• Kickoff time: 5 a.m. ET
• Prediction (Win/Draw): Tunisia to win

• Best Bet: Both teams to score: NO
• Odds: -130 (BetMGM)

There’s very little in this match from an attacking sense on either side. The under has almost no value at -165, but there’s slightly more palatable odds on both teams not to score.

Neither side produced much of an attacking display in their opener, mostly due to a lack of possession. Still, neither side showed an ability to counter well, and in a match where someone will have to hold the ball, it could be a struggle for both squads to produce goals.

Tunisia especially are proficient defensively. Take away the 5-1 friendly defeat to Brazil in late September, and Tunisia haven’t conceded a single goal since January, an incredible run of 945 minutes of action. It will be tough sledding for Australia. — Kyle Bonn

MORE: Full Tunisia vs. Australia betting breakdown, with odds, picks, predictions, team news, and more

Poland vs. Saudi Arabia prediction, best bet

• Kickoff time: 8 a.m. ET
• Prediction (Win/Draw): Poland to win

• Best Bet: Poland to win to nil
• Odds: +160 (BetMGM)

In their five matches since getting obliterated by Belgium and the Netherlands in mid-June, Poland have conceded just three goals, picked up three clean sheets, and been extremely stout at the back. Their attacking performance against Mexico was poor, but against Saudi Arabia, they should be able to pick apart the Middle Eastern side. Saudi Arabia shocked the world against Argentina, but they only managed three total shots in that game and weathered 2.26 xG on the defensive side. Robert Lewandowski should finally get his World Cup goal and Poland will pick up a huge three points. — Kyle Bonn

MORE: Full Poland vs. Saudi Arabia betting breakdown, with odds, picks, predictions, team news, and more

France vs. Denmark prediction, best bet

• Kickoff time: 11 a.m. ET
• Prediction (Win/Draw): Draw

• Best Bet: Half with most goals — 2H
• Odds: +100 (BetMGM)

• Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals
• Odds: +100 (BetMGM)

I’m still shaky on how this match will play out, but I also know both sides will know they can coast to halftime before opening the big guns. Denmark especially will be motivated to see out a scoreless first half, knowing if they are to secure a result in this game they’ll need to avoid chasing the match. In the last three matches between these two sides, of which Denmark avoided defeat in all three, two featured a scoreless first half. In the other, where Denmark scored both goals of their 2-0 victory before halftime, the second half still featured a higher combined xG value by a decent margin (1.93-1.43).

Meanwhile, it’s about time this World Cup picked up the goalscoring pace, and both these teams can contribute to that. Denmark put up 1.60 xG in their opening game despite failing to score, while France emptied the clip against Australia with four deserved goals on an xG of 4.21.

The last time these two teams played, Denmark won 2-0, but the xG in that game favored more goals as well, and Denmark’s 2-1 victory back in early June again suggested there was more to be had with a combined xG total of 3.75. Underperforming expected goals numbers over a long period of time can suggest a finishing problem, but in a small sample size of matches we’re inspecting, it suggests that a turnaround is likely. — Kyle Bonn

MORE: Full Poland vs. Denmark betting breakdown, with odds, picks, predictions, team news, and more

Argentina vs. Mexico prediction, best bet

• Kickoff time: 2 p.m. ET
• Prediction (Win/Draw): TEAM to win//Draw

• Best Bet: Argentina to win to nil
• Odds: +140 (BetMGM)

• Best Bet: Halftime/Fulltime: Draw/Argentina
• Odds: +310 (BetMGM)

While we’re not being swayed on Saudi Arabia by one shock upset, we’re also not being deterred from Argentina, who conceded two goals on just 0.15 xG, thanks to a pair of stunners out of nowhere. It’s clear that Argentina need to improve up front, but they should get back on track, and could end up using Mexico as a punching bag for their frustration. Between Argentina’s defensive nature and Mexico’s inability to score, this will be one-way traffic. — Kyle Bonn

What will likely come across in this fixture is how tense both teams will be at the start of the match. As a of two disappointing opening matches for both these sides, it wouldn’t surprise to see a first half with few opportunities play out before both teams decide to go for it with much more attacking fluidity in the second. That arguably plays into the hands of Argentina more who could easily steal the three points thanks to their large array of offensive quality. — Nathan Evans

MORE: Full Argentina vs. Mexico betting breakdown, with odds, picks, predictions, team news, and more

Yesterday’s picks

This World Cup continues to confound. We picked up a few positive selections yesterday, but others fell flat. The two winners were Wales vs. Iran to have more goals in the second half, which came true at the death thanks in part to the Wayne Hennessey red card, while Senegal managed to beat Qatar handily, as predicted. On the flip side, word seemed to be that Enner Valencia would not be fit to play against the Netherlands, but he was deployed and looked lively as Ecuador took it to the Netherlands in a 1-1 draw.

The England vs. USA match, however, was not what we saw coming. The same England team that trounced Iran 6-2 had very little going forward in a poor performance that earned boos from England fans in the crowd. Meanwhile, it felt like the official was trying not to give cards, given his reputation from the Venezuelan domestic league. He did not give out a single card, despite one incident where Luke Shaw could have easily been sent off for a terrible challenge on Tim Weah.

Soccer best bets records

Records below compiled since the first edition of this post on Monday, October 3. Sporting News betting contributors include Kyle Bonn, Nathan Evans, and Simon Borg.

2022 World Cup futures picks

With the opening game of the World Cup here, below is a reminder of our World Cup futures selections.

Kyle has gone with tournament favorites Brazil to win the competition, as the Selecao have the most talented and deepest squad in the field. On the back of that pick, Neymar is the selection for Golden Boot winner as the tournament’s top scorer. He’s selected Argentina to win Group C as a favorite, plus Uruguay to win Group H as an underdog to Portugal.

There’s one top team that should fall early, and that’s France who have a soft group, but injuries and poor form could come back to haunt them early in the knockout stage. Finally, the upset picks are Japan to qualify from a difficult Group E, requiring them to pip one of Spain or Germany. Then, he’s gone for Canada to grab an upset in Group F and advance past the likes of Belgium or Croatia.