World Series predictions 2022: Why these 5 stats show Dodgers, Astros are most likely to win

Baseball, perhaps more than any other sport, loves to spout off obscure stats. Viewers may have noticed ESPN showing OPS+ for batters at the plate, where the channel clarified league average is 100. Expected weighted on base average (xwOBA) has become popular. For pitchers, stats like expected batting average and whiff percentage are becoming indicators of success.

However, when it comes to predicting trends, sometimes the results-oriented stats are all that matter. There will always be a place for ERA and batting average. Because while other stats reflect what could be, these stats reflect what is.

To clarify, this is by no means a damnation of advanced statistics. They are immensely useful with the right context. However, heading into the 2022 postseason, some of the best indicators will be what happened during the 2022 season.

The 2022 playoff field shares some common traits with few outliers. They have solid bullpens, good defense, and they can win in high-leverage situations. Some are better than others, but all of them are capable.

MORE: Sporting News experts make picks for 2022 MLB postseason

With that in mind, here are five (relatively) basic stats that can help to predict who can be successful in the 2022 playoffs.

5 stats that could predict the 2022 World Series winner

1. Defensive Efficiency

Defensive efficiency (DefEff for short) is a beautifully simplistic stat that can determine which teams have good to great fielding.

The formula is a simple one: 1 – ((hits + reached on error – home runs) / (plate appearances – walks – strikeouts – hit by pitch – home run)).

Seem complicated? It’s simpler than it seems. Basically, it determines how many people get on base vs. how many balls are put into play.

Here’s a look at how every remaining team fared in this simple but telling stat.

The Phillies, of course, exist as the outlier in 24th, the only team below the league average of .697. That should be relatively unsurprising given their early defensive struggles which, to their credit, they were able to somewhat turn around under Rob Thomson. It’s telling the top five teams overall are still alive in the postseason. They don’t make mistakes in the field, and that helps their pitching immensely.

2. Bullpen ERA

In the playoffs, a team’s bullpen is arguably the most important thing to have in order. This postseason is littered with teams with excellent relief ERAs, though the depth of those bullpens varies.

Teams like the Dodgers and Mariners have built a reputation on a rotating bullpen full of players who can come in in any situation and pitch well. The Yankees are strong when they’re healthy, which is a question mark. The Guardians hitch their wagon to dominant closer. And the Braves and Astros have some of baseball’s best situational pitching.

For some teams, bullpen is more of a strength than others. But in the playoffs, the balancing act between when and when not to use a pitcher is more difficult than ever. Depth will be key, particularly as the series drag on and there’s nowhere to hide.

Crunch time in the late innings is when it becomes so hard to manage a bullpen, so having options is paramount. The top six teams in baseball in bullpen ERA have all made it to the LDS, so the significance is clear. The Padres and Phillies, for their part, have enjoyed good seasons from different pitchers in spurts. It will become important to get those spurts at the right time, particularly from Josh Hader for the Padres and Seranthony Domínguez for the Phillies.

3. Team OPS

It’s hard to pinpoint a batting stat that has real influence, just because what every team values at the plate is different. Some teams, like the Yankees, place a lot of emphasis on exit velocity and launch angle. Others, like the Guardians, just want players to hit the ball and not strike out.

Amidst all of these battling philosophies, however, OPS seems like the best indicator of a team’s success at the plate. OPS is a team’s on-base plus slugging percentage, so it’s determinate of how often they get on base and how many bases they’re getting per plate appearance.

Phillies fans, exhale. This is where their skillset shines through. Philadelphia gets on base and is very capable of hitting for power, launching them up through these rankings. The Yankees, of course, were powered by the otherworldly performance of Aaron Judge. And even the worst teams in the field are around league average in OPS (and they excel in other areas).

MORE: MLB playoff bracket 2022: Full schedule, TV channels, scores

4. One-run game record

In MLB, the ability to win one-run games is huge in the playoffs. Managers are constantly putting relievers in high-leverage situations, and they’re quick with the hook, so games tend to stay close.

You aren’t often going to see position players pitching in the eighth or ninth inning of the playoffs. So teams have to be able to win in close games. While one-run game records partially come down to pure luck — margins that thin have to — they also come down to bullpen depth and managerial ability in high-leverage situations.

The Mariners led the league in overall one-run wins for the second year in a row, and the Padres led baseball in percentage in these games. Whichever teams do well in these close games and late-win situations will likely be the ones to win. Indeed, the Guardians and Mariners have three one-run wins between them already this postseason. They’ll be teams to look out for against the Yankees and Astros, respectively, if they can keep up in the early innings.

MORE: 5 reasons Yankees fans should fear a Guardians upset in ALDS

5. Blown saves

Not all blown saves are created equal. A blown save into a loss is, it goes without saying, far more consequential. But all blown saves have an effect. They can prolong a game and create issues for bullpen management down the road.

Teams take different approaches to acquiring saves. The Dodgers and Mariners have taken a closer-by-committee approach, with the latter naming themselves “Los Bomberos” in the process. The Braves and Guardians lean on Kenley Jansen and Emmanuel Clase, respectively. It all depends on comfort.

Teams need to conserve their arms, so they need to close out games. That much is clear.

The Braves and Padres are hoping the recent consistency of Jansen and Josh Hader keeps them on track and limits the amount of blown saves they see in the postseason. While nothing is guaranteed, they have been trending in the right direction. For the Guardians, Clase will be used as often as he needs to be. And teams like the Dodgers will look to find a reliable arm.

MORE: Who is the Dodgers’ closer? L.A. looks to find lockdown guy in postseason

While none of these stats can guarantee anything, they paint the Dodgers as arguably the most well-rounded team in this postseason and the Phillies as the most suspect. Will those results bear out? Only time will tell, with playoff variance being as high as it is.

There is, however, something to be said for achieving these numbers over the case of 162 games. This doesn’t guarantee a Dodgers World Series win. Nothing can. But it certainly gives a compelling case to pick the chalk favorites.