Heading into the ALDS, the New York Yankees are heavy favorites against the Guardians. Caesars Sportsbook is giving the second-seeded Yankees -195 odds to beat the third-seeded Guardians, who are coming off a Wild Card Round sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays.
The season series bears that out, with the Yankees having gone 5-1 against the Guardians during the regular season with a run differential of +22. The pitching matchup for Game 1 looks like it will be Gerrit Cole against Cal Quantrill after the Guardians used Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie this weekend.
The Guardians, for their part, have been playing up against the odds all season. In the preseason, Fangraphs gave them 15 percent odds to make the playoffs and 7.3 percent odds to make the ALDS. Yet, here they are.
The Yankees, meanwhile, were the hottest team in baseball to start the year, but some rough stretches kept them in the No. 2 seed behind the Astros in the AL. They still come into this series with the odds in their favor, but Yankee fans know nothing is guaranteed.
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Here are five reasons the Yankees should be worried about the Guardians in this year’s postseason series.
5 reasons the Guardians could beat the Yankees
1. “Next man up” batting order
One of the biggest problems plaguing the Yankees this year was a surprisingly short batting order.
After presumed MVP Aaron Judge, the Yankees batters were streaky at best, and disappeared for long stretches of the year at worst.
The Guardians, for their part, don’t have a hitter outside of José Ramírez who inspires fear every time they’re at the plate. But in a tight game, anyone can come up big. Oscar Gonzalez hit a walk-off homer in the 15th inning of last weekend’s Game 2 for the Guardians, Josh Naylor has had some late-inning heroics, as has Andrés Giménez. It can come from anywhere in the order, and that makes them hard to pitch to in lynchpin situations.
In fact, the later in the game it gets, the scarier the Guardians order becomes top to bottom. For the Yankees, Matt Carpenter’s health is still in question, and he was one of their big bats before fracturing his foot. If he isn’t all the way there yet, order depth becomes more of an issue for New York.
2. Emmanuel Clase
The main thing the Guardians have that some teams are missing this postseason is a lights out closer.
Emmanuel Clase is one of baseball’s eminent relievers, having led MLB with a ridiculous 42 saves. He blew four on the year, and posted an ERA of 1.36.
The presence of Clase along with the length of the Guardians lineup could be a cause for alarm for the Yankees if games stay close late. If postseason Clase is as effective as regular season Clase, a 1-0 lead coming into the eighth could feel insurmountable against Cleveland.
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3. Lack of reliance on the home run
This is a weird one to write for two reasons. One: The Guardians scored three runs against the Rays last weekend — all off the deep ball. Two: This could easily backfire for the Guardians.
Gerrit Cole was tied for second-worst in baseball in home runs per nine innings at 1.5, and it was the best way to touch him up. The Guardians hit the second-fewest home runs in baseball, ahead of only the Tigers.
Game 1 is going to be difficult for Cleveland for that reason. Cole is a bad matchup for the Guardians — he gave up two runs in two outings against them this year — so they’ll have to look to at least split Games 1 & 2 in New York. If they can get to Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino in Games 2 & 3, respectively, and disrupt the Yankees bullpen, they have a good opportunity to be able to pull off a stunner in four or five.
Despite Cole as an outlier, the Yankees as a team didn’t give up a ton of homers this year, seventh fewest in the league at 157. Long, sustained innings can be the best way to get to them as a team. That’s where the Guardians specialize, and that’s where they can win outside of Game 1.
4. Aggressiveness
To that last point, this is a Guardians team that LOVES to run the bases. They were third in MLB behind the Rangers and Marlins in stolen bases per game at 0.73, which was a big part of their ability to manufacture runs.
They’re more aggressive on the basepaths than the Yankees, though the Yankees were sixth in MLB with 0.83 attempts per game. However, the Guardians were caught stealing much less.
The Guardians also batted .259 with runners in scoring position, 14 points better than the Yankees. Again, they manufacture runs. And that makes them dangerous, particularly in this matchup.
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5. Pitching (Bullpen)
The Guardians are heading into this series with an intended disadvantage on the mound, with Quantrill squaring up with Cole.
Making it past that game, however, they could have Bieber and McKenzie available for Games 2 & 3, respectively. It will depend on how Terry Francona wants to set up his rotation moving forward.
Jameson Taillon is moving to the bullpen for the Yankees, meaning New York is going to a three-man rotation. That means the Yankees could have Cole going on five days of rest for Game 4, but they would have Cortes on three days in Game 5 if they go that route. If the Guardians use a four-man rotation, they could work themselves into a favorable Game 5 matchup should it become necessary by throwing Aaron Civale in Game 4.
Beyond that, the Yankees bullpen is full of question marks. Chapman is off the roster, Clay Holmes is battling injury, as is Wandy Peralta. Scott Effross has been volatile. If the New York bullpen struggles and the starters are thrown off-kilter by the schedule, it could be advantage Guardians, who showed in the wild card round they have as many relievers as they need.
Ultimately, the Guardians are coming into this series short-changed because of the rest for the Yankees, and they need some things to break their way to win. However, things have broken their way a lot this year, so it isn’t out of the question. If this series turns to small-ball with a lot of big management decisions being made, it likely favors Francona over Aaron Boone, who has made some managerial mishaps in the postseason before.
If the Yankees, however, are able to jump all over the Guardians early, they could be punching an ALCS ticket very quickly. It all depends on how they come out of the gate. We could know very early how this series is going to go.
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