The NFL regular season is nearly upon us, as the defending Super Bowl champion Rams begin their title defense against AFC Super Bowl hopefuls the Buffalo Bills.
Every team, of course, has different aspirations heading into this year. While some are looking for rings, others are looking to stay out of the top of the NFL Draft. Still others are vying for the first overall pick. The reality is, rebuilding occurs in the NFL, and no team wants to be stuck in football purgatory.
The NFL season never plays out as we expect, but it is reasonable to speculate on who will be good and who won’t.
The league as a whole can be broken into tiers, sandwiched between the Rams, Chiefs, Packers, and Bills who have clear Super Bowl ambitions and the Falcons, Texans, Panthers, and Giants who have No. 1 overall pick potential in 2023.
With that in mind, here are the best and worst case scenarios for all 32 NFL teams.
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Arizona Cardinals
Best case: Kyler Murray proves he’s a franchise quarterback for an entire season
The Cardinals need Kyler Murray to put together 17 games of domination. After signing him to a five-year, $230.5 million extension, the team’s message was clear: You’re our guy, this is your franchise.
Murray has struggled in the second half each of the past two seasons. The Cardinals lost five of their last six games in 2021, including a wire-to-wire beatdown by the Lions. Arizona needs to make the playoffs this season as a high seed. It has the talent to do it.
Worst case: DeAndre Hopkins’ suspension puts the Cardinals in a hole they can’t dig out of
The Cardinals will be without star receiver DeAndre Hopkins (PED suspension) for the first six games of the season, and that is an ominous sign. When Murray didn’t have Hopkins last year because of injury, the numbers were not good.
| OPPONENT | COMP | ATT | YDS | YPA | TDs | INTs |
| Lions | 23 | 41 | 257 | 6.3 | 1 | 1 |
| Colts | 27 | 43 | 245 | 5.7 | 1 | 0 |
| Cowboys | 26 | 38 | 263 | 6.9 | 2 | 0 |
| Seahawks | 28 | 39 | 240 | 6.2 | 1 | 0 |
NFL teams that are slow out of the gate have a hard time crawling back, and playoff odds drop precipitously with each loss before a win. Since 1980, six teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3. The Cardinals have the Chiefs, Raiders and Rams before the Panthers in Week 4. If they can’t steal one of those early games without Nuk, they may see their season slip away before it begins.
Atlanta Falcons
Best case: Complete the collapse, draft first overall
The Falcons aren’t entering this season full of promise. Marcus Mariota is slated to be the Week 1 starter at quarterback after Matt Ryan was traded in the offseason, and outside of Kyle Pitts and A.J. Terrell, there is little on the roster to be excited about.
The Falcons need a quarterback. If they’re as bad as they are expected to be this year, they’ll have a good shot at landing C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young in 2023. That should be the goal in 2022. They won’t be competing in the NFC South with their current roster.
Worst case: A.J. Terrell steps back and the pass rush is still awful
Just because a team is bad doesn’t mean it can’t be enjoyable to watch. Terrell is a prime-time cornerback, but if he starts to regress, it could be a pain point for the Falcons moving forward.
Separately, the league’s worst pass rush must improve. Anthony Rush and Ta’Quon Graham have pressure to get better as players who were brought in last year for coordinator Terry Fontenot’s first season. Ultimately, getting better at getting to the passer is the goal.
Baltimore Ravens
Best case: They stay healthy and Lamar Jackson plays at an MVP level
The Ravens were bitten by the injury bug before playing a single game last season when J.K. Dobbins tore his ACL. Other notable players to miss games included Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters and Gus Edwards. Lamar Jackson missed the final four games of the season with a bone bruise in his ankle.
Not only do the Ravens need their players to stay healthy, they also need to get Jackson performing at his best. The 2019 MVP passed for 2,882 yards in 12 games last season, putting him on pace for a career high (even when adjusted for the 17-game schedule). But he was more mistake-prone (13 interceptions to 16 touchdowns). Expectations are high for Jackson, particularly with a potential contract extension hanging over him. The AFC North appears to be more open even with the defending conference champion Bengals in it. Baltimore needs to take advantage.
Worst case: The Hollywood Brown trade leaves a crater in the roster that can’t be filled in
Baltimore turned heads by trading Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to the Cardinals this offseason. It was an expression of faith — perhaps too much faith — in the remaining receivers.
Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay and James Proche II will need to support Jackson. Brown wasn’t quite a safety net, but his chemistry with Jackson was hard to deny. Someone else will need to step up. If no one does, it could be a long season.
Buffalo Bills
Best case: They finally get over the hump and win the Super Bowl
This is a Super Bowl-or-bust team. The Bills are built to win it all this year, and that’s reflected in the preseason predictions. Buffalo is among the most popular picks to come out of the AFC, and that opinion begins with Josh Allen.
With Allen and Stefon Diggs leading the charge on offense and Von Miller joining the defense, the Bills should be one of the teams to beat in the AFC. After losing to the Chiefs in each of the past two postseasons, Buffalo is aiming to close the deal and make their its Super Bowl appearance since 1993.
Worst case: They underperform and don’t get home field in the playoffs
The Bills’ home-field advantage is no joke, and the roster is good enough to win as many as 15 games this season.
But the AFC is so competitive that several teams can contend for the No. 1 seed, so the Bills could well end up playing on wild-card weekend. The Titans earned the first-round bye week last season, with Buffalo drawing New England. It will be significantly harder for Buffalo to get Super Bowl 57 if the road to Arizona doesn’t go through Orchard Park.
Carolina Panthers
Best case: Baker Mayfield reverts to his 2020 form and the Panthers compete for a wild card
After desperately trying to land a quarterback who could help them compete and get Sam Darnold off the field, they ended up trading for Baker Mayfield, who will inherit a roster that is rather porous.
Lost in all of this, however, is that, at his best, Mayfield is a fringe Pro Bowler, and in 2020 he guided the Browns to their first playoff win since 1994. Even sweeter for Cleveland, it came against the Steelers. It’s a long shot, but it’s possible that Mayfield’s grit will help Carolina play meaningful games in December.
Worst case: The Panthers end this season with two free-agent quarterbacks and no answers
It’s an overused adage, but it rings true: If you have two quarterbacks, you have none. But the maddening thing about this Panthers team is that it seems like a team that could win seven games and play its way out of a high draft pick.
Mayfield and Darnold both can become unrestricted free agents next offseason, and Matt Corral will miss all of his rookie season with a Lisfranc injury. The Panthers could end up facing the exact same scenario in 2023: an abundance of quarterbacks and no idea what to do with them.
Chicago Bears
Best case: Justin Fields thrives in the new offense and the receivers exceed expectations
Much has been made of the Bears’ receiving corps, but the ceiling is higher than some may think if you’re comfortable being a contrarian. Darnell Mooney can do damage, and there’s a case to be made that Byron Pringle was masked in Kansas City.
As for Justin Fields, he’s in his second offensive system in as many seasons. He was one of the best rollout quarterbacks in the league, albeit with a small sample size, last year, so the hope is that new coordinator Luke Getsy better utilizes his strengths than Matt Nagy did. The bar is the floor, and Fields showed flashes as a rookie in 2021. Now he needs to add consistency.
Worst case: The receivers are as bad as advertised and Fields stagnates
The expectations for starting quarterbacks have been recalibrated in recent years. The days of the Aaron Rodgers path for a first-round pick are largely gone; the hope now is that QBs make an immediate impact.
Not only is the wide receiver room a who’s who of “Who?” but Fields is also playing behind a patchwork offensive line. That’s an ominous sign as Fields looks to find some comfort. With a new receiving corps, a new offensive line and a new offensive system, things could get very ugly for Fields and the Bears very quickly.
Cincinnati Bengals
Best case: The offensive line holds up and the Bengals come out of the AFC again
Much like the Bears, the Bengals knew they had a problem up front. They enter this season with only one incumbent offensive lineman, left tackle Jonah Williams.
To address the other positions, they drafted Cordell Volson, signed Ted Karras away from the Patriots, picked up Alex Cappa from the Patriots and landed La’el Collins from the Cowboys. Offensive line play was ultimately the cause of death for the Bengals in last year’s Super Bowl; it was blown up multiple times down the stretch and Joe Burrow was sacked seven times in all, tying an NFL championship game record.
Worst Case: The offensive line is still terrible and Joe Burrow has to do it all again
Teams shouldn’t ask a player as young as Burrow to do it all. For that reason, the Bengals’ best- and worst-case scenarios start with the offensive line.
Cincinnati invested a lot in the line in the offseason, but sometimes the guys up front just don’t gel. If that’s the case this season, then the window of Burrow playing on his rookie contract closes a little more. The Bengals will live and die by their quarterback play. Their quarterback needs to be able to stay on his feet.
Cleveland Browns
Best case: Cleveland is still in the playoff race in Week 13 when Deshaun Watson returns
Whatever you think about Deshaun Watson, he gives the Browns the best chance to win. With Jacoby Brissett under center, “endure and survive” will be the mantra. Brissett is a serviceable starter, but riding out 11 games with him could be tough.
If Watson inherits a team that is in the wild-card race, then the Browns will be in good shape. If he doesn’t, then Cleveland will have to accept 2022 as a punted season after it traded for a highly controversial player. That $230 million contract isn’t going anywhere.
Worst case: The Browns are out of the playoffs when Deshaun Watson returns, and he’s terrible
Watson is a good to very good quarterback, but after not playing for more than a season and a half, there will be rust to shake off when he comes back.
If Watson inherits a Browns team that is already out of the playoff hunt and is awful, then the wheels will really start spinning as Cleveland tries to figure out exactly what it paid for. There will inevitably be growing pains when he returns, but if he doesn’t look right by the end of the season, then the panic meter will start to ramp up.
Dallas Cowboys
Best case: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and CeeDee Lamb are copacetic and Micah Parsons makes a jump
The Cowboys have great parts on their roster. Now that roster needs to become the sum of those parts. Dak Prescott at his best is considered an MVP-caliber quarterback, Ezekiel Elliott is a three-time Pro Bowler, and CeeDee Lamb is a bona fide No. 1 receiver. Yet, for some reason, the Cowboys have not been able to connect the dots and look like a real contender.
Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs turned a lot of heads as rookies on defense last year; now they need to be consistent difference makers. Parsons won Defensive Rookie of the Year and looks like a star, but Diggs needs to become consistently good at cornerback and become less boom-or-bust.
Worst case: Tyron Smith’s injury dismantles the offensive line
Tyron Smith is one of the NFL’s premier left tackles. His avulsion fracture, which will keep him out until at least December, is a brutal blow to the Cowboys.
Between Smith’s injury and La’el Collins’ departure for Cincinnati, what has long been a team strength is becoming a weakness. The Cowboys will need consistency up front if they’re going to go where they want to go this year. They’ll be searching for it while they also search for Smith’s replacement.
Denver Broncos
Best case: Russell Wilson is as advertised and the rest of the AFC West struggles
Playing in the toughest division in football is a blessing and a curse, The AFC West is an arms race, but arguably no team was more ambitious in the offseason than the Broncos, who sent a large package to Seattle for quarterback Russell Wilson.
The Broncos, of course, have experience with imported quarterbacks. They won a Super Bowl with the specter of Peyton Manning, after all. Since then, however, the position has been a revolving door. Denver is hoping Wilson is a long-term answer. But first, he needs to put together a full season of strong play.
Worst case: The Broncos get run over in the AFC West
The AFC West is an absolute gauntlet. If Denver traded for Wilson and still ends up third or even fourth in the division, then people will want answers.
While Wilson brings stability to one position, the reality is that there are a lot of questions about the rest of the roster. The wide receivers are unproven and running back is still in a bit of a plug-and-play state right now. If the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders play to their potential, the Russell Wilson Era could well get off to a frustrating start.
Detroit Lions
Best case: A team that’s built around Jared Goff stays out of the top 10 in the draft
While the easy answer for best case is “drafting in the top three,” the team is being judged on results right now. There needs to be improvement this year with the hype increasing. That may need to happen in spite of Jared Goff playing quarterback.
Dan Campbell has become a darling pick for Coach of the Year and the Lions going over 6.5 wins is a remarkably popular bet. If they do that, then it’s not a crazy to think they’ll be fighting for the No. 7 seed in the NFC. But a lot of things have to go right for them to get there.
Worst case: The Lions show no growth from last season
For all of the bluster this offseason, the Lions were still 3-13-1 last year, and that was largely because of a bad roster. They struggled to protect Goff, who couldn’t throw downfield. On the other side of the ball, they couldn’t get to the quarterback and the secondary was devastated by injuries.
The Lions’ quest to be better starts with No. 2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson. He should spearhead the effort to get to the quarterback more often, something the secondary would benefit from. If they’re the exact same team as last year, though, Detroit might need to recalibrate the rebuilding timeline.
Green Bay Packers
Best case: Super Bowl
There’s no cute way to answer this. If Aaron Rodgers is your quarterback, then it’s Super Bowl or bust every year.
And yet, every year, the Packers seem to be snakebitten in the playoffs. There doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason. The team just runs out of gas. But still, year in and year out the expectation is the Super Bowl, fair or not.
Worst case: A lack of receiving talent catches up to Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers is a kingmaker. He has made stars out of some wideouts, and he may well turn Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs into one. But first, someone will have to take the departed Davante Adams’ targets.
Adams is possibly the best receiver Rodgers has played with in Green Bay, so losing him will have an effect. It will be on Rodgers as to whether it’s a net zero or a net negative at the end of the year.
Houston Texans
Best case: Davis Mills becomes the QB of the future
Drafting becomes a lot more fun when teams aren’t scrambling to find the next great quarterback. The Texans would like to believe they have their guy in Davis Mills.
With Deshaun Watson now out of the picture, Houston can start to look ahead. Mills completed a shade under 67 percent of his passes last year, and looked like a surprise find as a third-round pick. But he was far from perfect. He had 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 13 games. If he can widen that ratio, things will start to look up in Houston for the first time in a long time.
Worst case: Davis Mills falls apart and the Texans have to start from scratch
The Texans are sitting on an embarrassment of riches in draft capital after the Watson trade landed them Cleveland’s first-rounders in 2023 and 2024 (they also got the Browns’ first pick this year). They also picked up a fourth-rounder in 2024. If Mills regresses and the Texans are forced to start over, then Houston is looking at a brutal stretch of mediocrity.
While it’s not all doom and gloom — not yet, anyway — Texans fans need some hope. Ripping it away this year with a new coaching staff would be a tough pill to swallow.
Indianapolis Colts
Best Case: Matt Ryan finally gives Jim Irsay what he’s looking for
The Colts have sought a long-term solution at quarterback ever since Andrew Luck abruptly retired. They’ve yet to find it. After a failed experiment with Carson Wentz that ended with owner Jim Irsay bashing him on his way out, they’re hoping Matt Ryan will be their guy.
Perhaps the change of scenery will spur Ryan to lead the Colts back to the postseason. They were close last year, but an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars in Week 18 knocked them out. Irsay and the Colts are hoping Ryan, at the very least, can save them from a similar embarrassment.
Worst case: The coaches and front office turn out to be the problem
If Ryan flames out in Indianapolis, then it will be time to entertain the possibility that Frank Reich and Co. are the issue. Either that, or the team’s talent evaluation isn’t up to snuff. It’s easy to point at Wentz, Philip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett and say they were the problem. But if four consecutive QBs after Luck come in and struggle, then perhaps it’s something the team is doing.
It’s hard to imagine that happening with Ryan, though. Yes, he’s far removed from his 2016 MVP season, but he’s still an above-average quarterback by most metrics. While it wouldn’t be a perfect indication of where the Colts are, if the offense keeps struggling, it might be time to take a look inward and figure out why.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Best case: Trevor Lawrence plays like the sure thing he was drafted to be
When the Jaguars drafted Trevor Lawrence, they knew he was joining a rebuilding project, and expectations were adjusted accordingly. But it wouldn’t be unreasonable to say Lawrence didn’t play up to even those adjusted standards.
He completed under 60 percent of his passes and averaged an interception per game. If he improves those numbers and starts showcasing his arm, then the Jaguars will have a lot of reasons to be excited. Even if they miss the playoffs again, a compelling performance from Lawrence would be encouraging.
Worst case: Lawrence stagnates and Travon Walker is bad
While Lawrence was a slam-dunk No. 1 overall pick, Travon Walker seemed to randomly shoot up a lot of draft boards before he was taken first in 2022. Lawrence not showing improvement would obviously be bad, but if his development stalls and Walker struggles, there will be a lot of hindsight takes.
Rebuilding means drafting properly. The Jaguars have had the last two No. 1 overall picks. While one of them can be botched without it being catastrophic, messing up twice would be unacceptable. They drafted Lawrence to be their long-term quarterback and Walker to improve their pass rush. Both players have to fill their respective roles.
Kansas City Chiefs
Best case: See Packers
Patrick Mahomes is no stranger to the AFC championship game; the Chiefs have been in the last four, after all. But, like the Packers with Aaron Rodgers (albeit in far less time), the Chiefs have won just one Super Bowl with Mahomes at the helm.
The simplest explanation is that winning Super Bowls as hard. Winning Super Bowls out of the AFC is harder. But now the Chiefs are suffering from sustained success. When a team has an elite quarterback, anything but a Super Bowl appearance is disappointing. Whether that’s fair or not will depend on who’s asked.
Worst case: Tyreek Hill’s trade devastates the passing game
Before this year, Mahomes had played his entire career with the dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. With Hill in Miami and Byron Pringle in Chicago, the wide receiving corps now features Marquez Valdes-Scantling, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and rookie Skyy Moore.
This is a chance for Mahomes to prove he’s the No. 1 quarterback he’s thought to be. If the Hill trade causes the passing game to collapse (unlikely, but this is a worst-case scenario, after all), then the Chiefs will have to do a lot of soul-searching. And there isn’t a lot of time to get it right with the AFC West being hyper-competitive.
Las Vegas Raiders
Best case: Davante Adams unlocks Derek Carr
Derek Carr has been a good quarterback the past few seasons. Vegas needs him to be great.
Carr signed an extension in the offseason and the Raiders traded for star receiver Davante Adams. Much has been made of their Fresno State connection, but they’ll be trying to recapture it against far better competition. Carr is coming into the season believing he has something to prove. A lot of the onus is on Adams to help him prove it.
Worst case: The Raiders get lost in the shuffle in the AFC
The Raiders are not in the “too good to fail” category, but they are in the “just good enough to disappoint” one.
Las Vegas has made a lot of ambitious offseason moves, led by trading for Adams, but they still get lost in a lot of conversations. Despite making the playoffs last season and arguably getting better in the offseason, they’re still seen as the third team in the West after the Chiefs and Chargers. If they do finish third in the West and lose out on a wild-card spot, then people will bristle.
Los Angeles Chargers
Best Case: Justin Herbert reaches his final form and the Chargers finally take the AFC West
Every career has milestones. Wresting the division away from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs would be a huge one for Justin Herbert.
That’s a tall order, but Los Angeles is building around Hebert. The team has invested in the roster and appears to have gotten better after last season ended in frustration. Herbert can make the West more than a one-horse race. A wild-card run would be nice, but that isn’t what the Chargers are hunting.
Worst case: The Chargers still can’t get over the hump
The last thing Chargers fans want is for this team to be doomed to “almost” status.
Close isn’t good enough for a roster that’s as talented as the Chargers’. There seems to be a cloud hanging over the franchise that refuses to dissipate. If LA plays meaningful football in December but misses the playoffs in another of Herbert’s prime years, then there will be a reckoning.
Los Angeles Rams
Best case: Repeat
Aaron Donald is back. Matthew Stafford is on an extension. Allen Robinson has been added. The Rams had a “team of destiny” vibe in 2021. That isn’t the case in 2022. Now, they’re just a really good defending champion.
Repeating in the NFL is notoriously difficult, but that’s simply the best thing that can happen for the Rams.
Worst case: The Super Bowl hangover hits and 2021 proves to be a fluke
“Worst case” here is relative. A team that just won a Super Bowl can only be so miserable. But the title does reset expectations, for better or worse.
The Rams want to go back-to-back and they have the firepower to do it. But if they falter out of the gate, there will be little margin for error as the Cardinals and 49ers lurk in the NFC West. Los Angeles has its core in place for the foreseeable future and it wants to compete for as long as Sean McVay is on the sideline.
Miami Dolphins
Best case: Tyreek Hill is right about Tua Tagovailoa
Tyreek Hill has been quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s biggest cheerleader in training camp. The wide receiver cannot stop complimenting the throws Tagovailoa is making.
If Hill is right about Tua, then that’s big news for the Dolphins, who have invited skepticism about their commitment to the third-year QB. If Tagovailoa balls out, they’ll have their guy and they can adjust accordingly. But as with all things, it will take time to know what Tagovailoa is.
Worst Case: Tagovailoa picks up no traction
Getting Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill was a big show of support for Tagovailoa. The Dolphins got a good offensive coach and a player he can genuinely work with. The infrastructure is now in place.
If Tagovailoa struggles out of the gate, however, the rumor mill will soon begin to churn. The Dolphins don’t project to be a team that will have a very high draft pick in 2023, so if they struggle, they’re prime candidates for football purgatory. If Tagovailoa doesn’t work out, they may need to adjust course quickly.
Minnesota Vikings
Best case: Kevin O’Connell’s offense proves to be perfect for Kirk Cousins
There is excitement in Minnesota. Kevin O’Connell, on paper, seems like a fit for Kirk Cousins and the offense. O’Connell comes from Sean McVay’s coaching tree, which means a lot of 11 personnel, which in turn should benefit Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson.
Perhaps by dumbing things down early and then expanding the offense as the season goes on, the Vikings can finally unlock themselves. Cousins is being paid like a top quarterback. In a perfect world, O’Connell will allow him to play like one.
Worst case: The lack of depth derails the Vikings’ season
Injuries happen, but if they rear their heads this year, Minnesota could find itself in trouble.
The roster is extremely top-heavy, with few options behind Cook and tight end Irv Smith Jr. One or both getting hurt would throw a wrench into the offense. Injuries hurt every team; they could derail the Vikings.
New England Patriots
Best case: Mac Jones proves he’s a franchise quarterback
Mac Jones surprised a lot of people last year by being competent as a rookie. He has to take a step forward this year for the Patriots to become a powerhouse again.
Jones completed nearly 68 percent of his passes last season; the next step is to prove he can make the big-time throws. The wide receiver room looks interesting; DaVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne could give him enough to work with, but there are no guarantees. That said, the best quarterbacks work with what they have, so it’ll be on Jones to make it work.
Worst case: None of the young players pan out and the Patriots fall apart
Jones is only one part of the equation. The Patriots have a lot riding on youth this year, and youth can be volatile. The Pats haven’t won a playoff game since 2018, their longest drought since 2008-10. If they don’t win one this season, they would be in their longest drought since a stretch from 1987-95.
That puts quite a bit of pressure on the young core. Rhamondre Stevenson figures to get a lot of touches at running back and the Patriots likely want to break in Tyquan Thornton as well. Cole Strange is facing a ton of pressure as arguably the biggest reach in the first round of the 2022 draft. If these guys don’t play well, then New England’s floor gets extremely low.
New Orleans Saints
Best case: Michael Thomas returns to prime form and clicks with Jameis Winston
Wide receiver was a disaster for the Saints in 2021. They revamped the position for 2022. Marquez Callaway, last year’s de facto No. 1, is now arguably fourth on the depth chart behind Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and rookie Chris Olave.
Make no mistake, however: Thomas needs to return to the best version of himself with Jameis Winston back at quarterback. The Saints were riding high when Winston tore his ACL last season; they never recovered as Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian struggled. With Dennis Allen now the head coach in place of Sean Payton, the Saints will have to find a spark in their passing game to catch the Buccaneers.
Worst case: The defense takes a huge step back
The Saints’ defense had an outrageous amount of pressure on it in the back half of the 2021 season because the offense frequently put it in difficult situations. Time and time again, however, it responded, and the unit finished seventh in the league in fewest yards allowed and fourth in fewest points allowed.
Defense can be a fickle beast in the modern NFL, but the Saints sent a message with the hiring of Allen as head coach: They’re comfortable having defense be their identity. Losing Marcus Williams hurts, but they’re hoping Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye pick up the slack. Demario Davis is still one of the best linebackers in the NFL. If the defense struggles this year, the Saints will find it difficult to compete in the NFC South.
New York Giants
Best case: Saquon Barkley returns to form as a premier back
People in New York wants Daniel Jones to break out, but he won’t be the most important player in Brian Daboll’s offense. That title belongs to Saquon Barkley, who has been hindered by injuries the past two seasons and has had his feature back status put on notice.
Barkley will have to succeed for Daboll’s offense to succeed. That’s one of the perils of drafting a running back second overall, but if Barkley can become more of a threat in the passing game while also showing excellent instincts between the tackles, then the Giants should be able to steal some wins.
Worst case: Kayvon Thibodeaux fails to spark the pass rush
The Giants narrowly avoided disaster in the preseason when first-round pick Kayvon Thibodeaux suffered a sprained MCL on a low block. The injury looked far worse than was diagnosed.
When Thibodeaux is on the field, his presence is felt at all times, and at his best, he’s a disruptor. He headed into the 2021 college season as a sure-fire first overall pick, but then he was injured and received criticism about his work ethic in his final year at Oregon. Now, the No. 5 overall pick in 2022 looks to be the centerpiece for what the Giants are trying to build on defense.
New York Jets
Best case: Zach Wilson shocks the world
There’s an almost unnerving amount of optimism coming from the Jets camp, and it’s centered around quarterback Zach Wilson making a massive jump in his second season.
Frankly, it would have to be a hell of a jump. Wilson completed 55 percent of his passes last year and looked bad doing it. He will likely miss time at the start of this season after suffering a bone bruise in his knee in the preseason. The Jets are trying to build around him, as evidenced by them drafting wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall. But Zach Wilson will need to impress to avoid feeling his seat start to warm before his third year.
Worst case: The offensive line doesn’t give Zach Wilson a chance to shine
There are few things more frustrating than watching a quarterback play behind an anemic offensive line. With Mekhi Becton (knee) already out for the season, the Jets are relying on a transplant from Seattle to fill in up front.
Duane Brown joins fellow newcomer Laken Tomlinson and holdovers Connor McGovern, Alijah Vera-Tucker and George Fant on the O-line. If the unit doesn’t perform, then Wilson will again be running for his life all season.
Philadelphia Eagles
Best case: Jalen Hurts becomes an MVP candidate
Bettors might be getting too cute with this, but Jalen Hurts has emerged as a heavy MVP presence. The Eagles had the No. 1 rushing offense in 2021 but they’re looking for more balance this year with A.J. Brown joining DeVonta Smith in the receiving corps.
Hurts has made strides in his first two seasons and this seems like the perfect year for him to break out. The Eagles will look to surprise the Cowboys in the NFC East and they have continuity on their roster. The hope is that everyone gets better with another year together.
Worst case: Another year of almosts
The Eagles can be maddening to watch. They’ve perfected the art of looking competitive even if they aren’t challenging for a title.
There is a lot of ambition in Philly for Nick Sirianni’s second season as coach, and while continuity is by no means a bad thing, it can also mean more of the same. The Eagles finished 9-8 last year, which was about right for its roster. They’re placing a lot of faith in Hurts this season. He’ll have to deliver to take them to the next level.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Best case: The defense is dominant
Steelers defenses have a knack for overperforming, but this year’s group will have to be outstanding. Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt, Devin Bush and Minkah Fitzpatrick are back as the unit’s heartbeat.
The Steelers finished 24th in the league in yards allowed last year, a far cry from third in 2020. Pittsburgh needs to return to that form to take pressure off an offense that has a lot of question marks. Which brings us to the worst-case scenario . . .
Worst case: The offense is terrible
The longer a quarterback battle rages, the less confidence viewers will have in who is ultimately named the starter. To make matters worse in Pittsburgh, Mitchell Trubisky vs. Kenny Pickett vs. Mason Rudolph has a lot of baggage attached to it.
Trubisky was signed in the offseason to replace the retiring Ben Roethlisberger, but then Pittsburgh drafted Pickett out of Pitt. Rudolph is the clear third option.
Diontae Johnson anchors the receiving corps and George Pickens has raised eyebrows in the preseason. Najee Harris anchors the running back group. None of that will matter if the QB play is bad, however.
San Francisco 49ers
Best case: Kyle Shanahan is right about Trey Lance
Jimmy Garoppolo is in San Francisco’s rear-view mirror. The keys are now in Trey Lance’s hands, for better or worse.
The 49ers don’t do bridge quarterbacks. They want to compete now, and they believe Lance gives them the best chance to do that. Kyle Shanahan’s hope is that Lance will allow him to open up the playbook and be creative in calling plays.
Worst case: Kyle Shanahan is wrong about Trey Lance
Lance was mostly a gimmick quarterback as a rookie in 2021. He made two starts, in which he went a combined 31 of 52 for 441 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.
Those numbers aren’t damning; rather, they’re a commentary on his inexperience. Lance was playing in an offense that wasn’t his own and for a team that wasn’t his own. If he doesn’t click with Deebo Samuel or his running ability is hindered in any way, there will be questions about the 49ers turning over the offense to a second-year player when they’re a perennial playoff team.
Seattle Seahawks
Best case: The Broncos struggle this year
This quarterback battle in Seattle is more bleak than the one in Pittsburgh. It’s difficult to squeeze any optimism out of Drew Lock vs. Geno Smith. It’s time for the Seahawks to rebuild.
And what better way to rebuild than get two top-10 (or top-15) picks? Search your heart, Seahawks fans, you know it to be true: This team will not challenge in the NFC West this year. Maybe, just maybe, a down Broncos year could expedite the next opportunity to do so.
Worst case: Charles Cross and Kenneth Walker III struggle
Even if the Seahawks don’t win games this year, they need to know they drafted well.
Charles Cross, whom Seattle drafted with the first-round pick they received from the Broncos in the Russell Wilson trade, is the hopeful anchor of the offensive line.
Kenneth Walker III, one of the Seahawks’ two-second round picks, figures to spell Rashaad Penny in the backfield after Chris Carson’s retirement. Walker (hernia) is questionable for Week 1.
If Cross regularly gets Seahawks QBs in trouble, or if Travis Homer outplays Walker, that would be alarming for a team that’s trying to figure out its long-term future.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Best case: 2022 is devoid of Tom Brady drama
Whether NFL fans want to hear it or not, Tom Brady’s situation is a thing everywhere. The legend retired after last season, came back, and then vanished in the middle of training camp. New head coach Todd Bowles, who took over after Bruce Arians abruptly retired, has tried to assure everyone that everything is fine.
Any way you slice it, the Buccaneers’ offseason has been bizarre. Good teams generally are able to set egos aside, and the Buccaneers probably fall in that bucket. But the possibility of Brady retiring for good will hover over this team like a cloud. The season will feel like a farewell tour, and that can take a toll on a team that’s looking to win a Super Bowl.
Worst case: The Buccaneers stumble out of the gate
The Bucs have a difficult start to their season. With games against the Cowboys, Saints, Packers and Chiefs in rapid succession, there’s a good chance they’ll start out 1-3 or even 0-4.
Never count Brady out, of course, but as mentioned in the Cardinals section, teams that start slowly have a difficult time making the playoffs. Depending on how good the Saints are, Tampa Bay may feel the pain in the NFC South.
Tennessee Titans
Best case: Derrick Henry stays healthy
The Titans showed last season that their success doesn’t depend completely on the health of Derrick Henry, but there’s no denying that they’re better with their all-world running back on the field. A lot of Ryan Tannehill’s success in throwing the ball comes off play action.
Keeping running backs healthy in the NFL is extremely difficult, but if the Titans can do it while also keeping Henry’s volume high would be a welcome development for them.
Worst case: Titans prove they aren’t an elite team in the AFC
Even with a No. 1 seed, the Titans never felt like the team to beat in the AFC last season.
Between the Bills, Chiefs and Bengals, the Titans look to be on the outside looking in. If they fall short again this year, it may be time to reexamine things in Nashville. That may not mean moving on from Mike Vrabel. But all options should be on the table.
Washington Commanders
Best case: The Commanders capitalize on an easy schedule and fight for a playoff spot
Seahawks, Falcons and Texans fans are probably screaming if they’ve made it this far. Why can the Commanders be a playoff team and those teams can’t? The answer: It’s hard to overstate how bad their schedule is.
In getting both the AFC South and NFC North in the schedule rotation, the Commanders have winnable games against the Jaguars, Lions, Bears and Texans. They also face Falcons as their NFC South counterpart. Carson Wentz might do just enough to eke out wins and keep the Commanders competitive in the NFC East.
Worst case: Carson Wentz keeps making left-handed passes
Carson Wentz’s left-handed throws led to baffling turnovers for the Colts last year. He needs to play smarter in Washington, because this season has “last chance” written all over it.
Wentz played well for long stretches last year, but his bad plays were bad. If he does that again in Washington, there isn’t enough talent on this roster to cover for him. His mistakes will reverberate.
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