Boom or draft bust? What Daniel Jones needs to do to keep Giants QB job in new offense

There have been games in Daniel Jones’ NFL career where he looks like the long-term answer at quarterback for the Giants. Think about the three games in 2019 when he had at least four touchdown passes and no interceptions.

Then there have been other games where he looks like a wasted pick at sixth overall in 2019. Like his three-interception performance against the Rams in 2021. Or any game, really, in 2021, a season in which he had just one game with more than 300 passing yards and two with multiple touchdown passes.

The Giants made the decision prior to the 2022 campaign not to pick up his fifth-year option, which means that, barring an extension during the season, he will be a free agent next offseason.

Jones has one more season to prove that he can still be an NFL starting quarterback and make a case to remain in New York. The Sporting News looks at what it will take for Jones in his fourth, and possibly final, year under center for the Giants.

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Make do with his weapons

The Giants aren’t giving Jones much help in the receiving room. None of New York’s wide receivers from a year ago ranked in the top half of ProFootballFocus’ top 115 at the position. Kenny Golladay’s ranking of No. 59 was the highest. Sterling Shepard ( was ranked 81st and Darius Slayton was ranked 112th. Saquon Barkley ranked 58th out of 62 running backs. Tight end isn’t much better. Free-agent signee Ricky Seals-Jones ranked 44th out of 70 at the position.

New York might not have made any other moves in free agency to address the lack of weapons, but it did turn to the draft to improve. It drafted Kentucky receiver Wan’Dale Robinson in the second round and San Diego State tight end Daniel Bellinger in the fourth.

And there’s reason to believe they could be difference-makers. Jones attempted only 6.6 percent of his passes more than 20 yards downfield, but he had a grade of 80.7 on them, his second-best by depth, per PFF. In 2020, he attempted 9.6 percent of his passes at that depth and had a grade of 95.6, his best. In 2019, it was 11.8 percent with a grade of 82.2, again, his best.

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Robinson could become an asset in the deep passing department. His 98.7 receiving grade on deep passes in 2021 ranked 15th in college football, per PFF, and his overall offensive grade of 91.3 tied him for third-best.

Bellinger was rarely used past 10 yards (82.5 percent of his targets came from behind the line of scrimmage out to 9 yards), but he was a dangerous short-range target, with grades of 91.7 on passes behind the line and 79.4 on short passes (zero to 9 yards), according to PFF. Last year, Jones had passing grades of 68 and 65.2 on those two ranges. Perhaps having a more reliable tight end on short throws will help.

Next, Jones needs to find better ways to utilize the established receivers in the offense.

Golladay had back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons in 2018 and 2019 with the Lions, but he hasn’t been the same since arriving in New York. In 2019, he caught 31.9 percent of his targets from deep and his PFF grade was 97.6. In 2021, his target rate on deep passes was only 18.7 percent and his grade was 68.1. He has struggled to gain separation (his 1.7 yards was the second-shortest of any qualified receiver in 2021, per NextGen Stats), but his average targeted air yards of 13.7 yards ranked 12th. There’s still a chance he could become a consistent deep threat again.

Shepard was hit by injuries in 2021, but he put up numbers similar to the 600- to 800-yard pace to which the Giants have become accustomed. He still averaged 10.2 yards per reception with a catch rate of 67.9 percent. Shepard has been a reliable short- to mid-range receiver in recent years, and he’s heading into his Age 29 campaign.

Slayton started only five of his 13 games in 2021 and saw his usage decrease. He caught only 26 passes for 339 yards, the first time in his three-year career he had fewer than 48 receptions and 740 receiving yards. Over the previous two seasons, he had receiving grades above 90 at all ranges from short to deep before struggling with drops in 2021. If he can iron that out, Slayton has the speed to be a solid second option.

There are a lot of “ifs” that are out of Jones’ control with the receivers. He needs this group to revert to past form after it collectively had down years in 2021.

But there’s also plenty on Jones. He needs to make the deep ball more of a part of his arsenal given the strengths of his receiving corps (his 7.3-yard average depth in 2021 was the lowest of his career, per PFF). He needs to be more careful with mid-range throws over the middle (4.4 percent of his intermediate middle throws were turnover-worthy).

He needs to have one of the best seasons of his career to get another chance in New York. To do that, he has to get the most out of his receivers.

Emulate Josh Allen’s rushing success

This might sound crazy, but hold off on making any snap judgments. Let’s start with the facts.

Allen is an imposing open-field runner, and part of that is because of his size. He’s 6-5 and 237 pounds and looks more like a linebacker or defensive end than a quarterback. But Jones is no lightweight. He’s 6-5 and 221 pounds.

Surely, Allen is faster? Even that is tough to say. Allen’s 40 time of 4.75 is faster than Jones’ 4.81 time, as is his 4.4 shuttle to Jones’ 4.41 and his 3-cone time of 6.9 to Jones’ 7.0.

But Jones has had the edge in times measured on the field by NFL’s NextGen Stats. Based on the top 20 times per week, Jones has four of the five fastest recorded times between the two quarterbacks. His 21.23 mph on his 80-yard rush in 2020 is the second-fastest time recorded by any quarterback, behind only Marcus Mariota’s 21.5 mph in 2016. Jones five times has been listed by NextGen Stats as having clocked in at over 20 mph in the open field. Allen has been above that mark only twice, with most of his times ranging between 17 and 19 mph.

A look at the rushing stats of the two since they’ve been in the league.

Part of the reason Jones has been unable to run like Allen is a lack of broken tackles. He has forced four in his career, while Allen had 12 in 2021.

But when Jones is able to get past the line of scrimmage, he has the ability to accelerate. When he gets past the line, he averages 8.37 yards per carry, per Stathead, nearly a yard more than Allen’s 7.5 yards per carry.

The Giants need to trust Jones with running more often. He gets results when he takes off, but he could be much more of a weapon if he ran twice as often.

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And there are plenty of reasons to expect them to do that. Daboll oversaw Allen’s success as a dual-threat quarterback, and now he’ll help guide Jones. Under Daboll, Allen had 124 run-pass option plays in 2021 and ran on 31 attempts for 154 yards, according to Pro Football Reference. The Giants ran just 38 times with Jones under center a season ago, and Jones took off on his just 10 times for 49 yards.

In 2021, Jones found plenty of success when running outside. He averaged 8.9 yards per attempt when rushing to the left end and 4.7 yards per attempt rushing to the right end, according to ProFootballFocus. Left tackle Andrew Thomas (19th-ranked offensive tackle) helped seal the edge on the left, and the Giants added Alabama’s Evan Neal to the right side in the draft. Jones being able to keep it in an RPO could help keep defenses off balance and help him reach the edge when carrying the ball.

Work off Saquon Barkley

A natural segue? A natural segue.

For that run-pass option to work, Jones will need Barkley to be return to the level of success he reached in his first two seasons. In 2021, Barkley averaged just 3.7 yards per rush and 6.4 yards per reception. From 2018-19, those numbers were 4.8 and 8.1, respectively.

Barkley averaged minus-0.28 rushing yards over expected per attempt in 2021, per Next Gen Stats, after posting 0.63 over expected in 2019 and 1.14 in 2018. He needs to get back to at least meeting expectations on the ground.

In his rookie season, Jones averaged 10.6 yards per pass attempt when the team ran RPOs. and 8.5 yards per attempt on play-action. In 2021, the next time Barkley was consistently on the field, Jones averaged only 4.4 yards per attempt on RPOs and 7.0 yards per attempt on play-action passes.

It should not be a surprise that PFF has graded Jones out as a plus passer on play-action. He had a 72.7 grade in 2019 compared to 62.5 when not running play-action, and 79.7 in 2020 vs. 74.6 on non-play-action throws. It wasn’t until 2021 that Jones was better when not running play-action, with a 63.9 grade on play-action to 72.4 on non-play-action.

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Running more option and play-action could add deception to the offense and help both Barkley rush more effectively and Jones find more success downfield. At his peak, Barkley was one of the league’s best running backs, and Jones is one of the NFL’s more mobile quarterbacks. Forcing teams to think about three options — pass, QB run or handoff — should be one of the Giants’ keys to offensive success.

But Jones also needs to incorporate Barkley more in the passing game. Last year, Jones attempted screen passes a career-high 9.8 percent of the time, and he found success with them, earning a 71.6 offensive grade. The Giants have an improved offensive line, and as Barkley looks to return to his 2018 form, screen passes could give him a chance to get in space and make things happen.

Even though Barkley’s 7.3 yards after the catch per reception was 1.1 yards lower than his first two seasons, it still matched him with Cordarrelle Patterson at 17th in the league, per PFF. But Barkley was also only targeted 57 times, a steep drop-off from the 121 in his rookie season of 2018 and 73 times in 2019. Barkley is still a weapon in the passing game and should be utilized more.

There’s certainly no guarantee Barkley will return to what he was prior to tearing his ACL in 2020. But when he’s playing at the pre-injury level, he’s the Giants’ best offensive weapon. And if Jones can take more advantage of him with deceptive play calls and utilizing him in the passing game, that could help elevate both players as they approach free agency.