In arguably the biggest game of the Week 3 NFL slate, Aaron Rodgers leads the 1-1 Green Bay Packers into Raymond James Stadium to face the 2-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX). Sunday marks the first time these two teams have met since the 2021 NFC Championship Game and the sixth time Rodgers and Brady have met head-to-head in their careers (4-1 record in favor of Brady).
Entering this marquee Week 3 matchup, Tampa Bay is likely dealing with numerous missing pieces on the offensive side of the ball as Brady figures to be without his top three receiving threats, Mike Evans (suspension pending), Chris Godwin (hamstring), and Julio Jones (knee), coming off an uneasy offensive performance in Week 2. Additionally, tackles Donovan Smith (elbow), and Josh Wells (calf) are questionable in the early week.
After a disappointing Week 1 performance against Minnesota, Green Bay put forth a bounce-back effort in its 27-10 win over NFC North rival Chicago last Sunday night. Like Tampa, Green Bay is also dealing with a key injury along the offensive line as left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee) has yet to suit up in 2022. The Packers would certainly like to have their All-Pro tackle back against a talented Tampa Bay defensive front, and while things are trending in the right direction, it’s unlikely Bakhtiari makes his season debut this weekend.
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Below, we’ll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Buccaneers-Packers, including the updated odds from Caesars Sportsbook, tips, and our prediction for this Week 3 late-afternoon showdown.
Buccaneers vs. Packers odds for NFL Week 3
Betting odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
- Spread: Buccaneers -2 (-110)
- Over/Under: 41
- Moneyline: Buccaneers -130; Packers +110
Tampa Bay opened as 3.5-point home favorites, but have since been bet down to two-point home chalk. Green Bay’s bounce-back effort coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the availability of several Buccaneers players has resulted in this line sitting under a field goal. The total has seen a ton of movement after opening around 48 points, dropping a whole touchdown to 41.
MORE WEEK 3 NFL: Odds, spreads
Buccaneers vs. Packers all-time series
The Packers lead the all-time series over the Buccaneers with a 33-23-1 record. However, Tampa Bay has won the past two meetings, most recently defeating Green Bay 31-26 in the 2021 NFC Championship. Green Bay’s last win in this series came back in December of 2017, as the Packers defeated a Jameis Winston-led Buccaneers bunch 26-20 in overtime.
Three trends to know
— The Packers are 2-5 against the spread in their past seven games against the Buccaneers.
— In five of the past seven meetings between these teams, the game has gone OVER the total.
— Tampa and Green Bay have yet to hit the OVER so far this season, going 4-0 to the UNDER through two weeks, according to BetQL.
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Three things to watch for
Buccaneers offensive line in pass protection
Given the amount of turnover and injuries Tampa Bay’s sustained along the offensive line, they’ll be tasked with staying in front of a Green Bay pass rush that sports the ninth-best pass rush grade per PFF. Additionally, Tampa Bay’s offensive line sports the 22nd-best pass blocking grade per PFF (59.4). Brady’s been under pressure on 20.3 percent of his dropbacks (13), posting a subpar 56.3 passer rating while completing 5-of-10 passes for 29 yards (2.9 YPA).
Brady’s wide receiving corps
Along with the instability on the offensive line, who will emerge as Brady’s go-to target in the passing game if in fact Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones fail to suit up on Sunday? Scotty Miller (8), Russell Gage (6), and Breshad Perriman (5) were the three most-targeted pass catchers last Sunday as the trio looks to remain Tampa’s top receivers in Week 3. While the Buccaneers recently signed Cole Beasley to the practice squad, it would be a bit shocking to see him suit up this Sunday, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Green Bay on the ground
The Packers relied heavily on their ground game in Week 2, attempting 38 carries for 203 yards (5.3 YPC) and one score. They’ve been best rushing towards the left tackle position, averaging 18.3 yards per attempt (four carries, 73 yards). Green Bay also sports PFF’s best offensive running grade (85.8) and its ability to remain effective on the ground makes life easier for Rodgers and company.
Stat that matters
2.52. That’s Tom Brady’s average time to throw, which sits as the third-quickest time among quarterbacks this season per Next Gen Stats. Brady’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly has allowed Tampa Bay to negate its opponent’s pass rush. We’ll see if Brady continues to get rid of the ball at this pace on Sunday.
Buccaneers vs. Packers prediction
Tampa’s injury situation is worrisome, and while the Buccaneers left the Superdome with a double-digit victory in Week 2, the final score was a bit misleading. The defense put on a clinic for a second-straight week but got some help from Jameis Winston tossing three interceptions. Rodgers and the Packers will be the most complete offense the Buccaneers have faced this season and make amends for their NFC Championship loss with a road win. This one could very well come down to whichever team has the ball last, but we’ll side with Aaron Rodgers defeating Brady for the first time as a member of the Buccaneers.
PREDICTION: Packers 24, Buccaneers 23. Green Bay covers (+2) and the game goes OVER (41).
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