Conference championship weekend is the final piece of the College Football Playoff puzzle.
There are 10 conference championship games in Week 14. That includes seven games involving ranked teams, and five games where both teams are ranked.
The two matchups that will get the most attention will be the Pac-12 championship on Friday night between No. 5 USC and No. 12 Utah. The Trojans are trying to make the CFP, but they need to avenge a regular-season loss to the Utes to get there.
MORE: Bowl projections heading into Championship Weekend
The Big 12 championship on Saturday features another rematch between No. 3 TCU and No. 13 Kansas State. The Horned Frogs can complete an undefeated regular season with a victory against the Wildcats.
The SEC championship matchup between No. 1 Georgia and No. 5 LSU lost some luster after the Tigers lost to Texas A&M in Week 12. No. 2 Michigan takes on Purdue in the Big Ten championship game. The ACC championship matchup between No. 10 Clemson and No. 17 North Carolina does not have CFP implications.
Still, this is one more chance to improve against the spread in the regular season. With that in mind, a look at our conference championship weekend picks for all 10 FBS conferences:
- Straight up: 186-60, .757 (13-8 last week)
- ATS: 126-118-2, .516 (9-12 last week)
Updated odds on BetMGM sportsbook:
Conference championship picks against the spread
Friday, Dec. 2
- No. 24 UTSA (-8.5) vs. North Texas (7:30 p.m., CBSSN) in San Antonio
UTSA is going for back-to-back Conference-USA championships, and the Mean Green allow 30.1 points per game. The Roadrunners won the regular-season matchup 31-27 on some late-game heroics. UTSA quarterback Frank Harris (9.0 yards per attempt) and North Texas quarterback Austin Aune (8.9) aren’t afraid to take deep shots. This should be an entertaining game at the Alamodome. The Mean Green are 4-3 ATS as an underdog, and they keep this one tight.
Pick: UTSA wins 34-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 5 USC (-2.5) vs. No. 12 Utah (8 p.m., FOX) in Las Vegas
Utah won the regular-season meeting 43-42 on Oct. 16 and has the chance to play spoiler in the Pac-12 championship game, especially if Cam Rising can replicate his 475 total yards. The Trojans did have a 28-14 first-half lead in that game, and Caleb Williams had 381 yards and five TD passes. That was on the road. This one is at a neutral-site at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Lincoln Riley was 4-0 in conference championship games at Oklahoma. That track record of success continues in a thriller that sends the Trojans to the CFP.
Pick: USC wins 35-28 and COVERS the spread.
Saturday, Dec. 3
- Toledo (-2.5) vs. Ohio (12 p.m., ESPN) in Detroit
The Bobcats are trying to win their first MAC championship since 1968, and this is their fifth try in the MAC championship game. Which quarterback will Toledo start? Tucker Gleason started in a 20-14 loss to Western Michigan, but Dequan Finn is the better playmaker. Ohio, meanwhile, has won seven in a row and has covered in eight straight games. The Bobcats lost quarterback Kurtis Rourke for the season, but backup quarterback CJ Harris totaled four TDs in a 38-14 victory against Bowling Green. It’s #MACtion where anything can happen, but Ohio breaks that championship drought in style.
Pick: Ohio wins 35-31 in an UPSET.
- No. 3 TCU (-2.5) vs. No. 13 Kansas State (12 p.m., ABC) in Dallas
The Horned Frogs are on the door-step of the program’s first College Football Playoff appearance, but it’s a dangerous game against a Kansas State team that ranked second in the Big 12 with 210 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Will Howard has settled in as the starter for the Wildcats with 13 TDs and two interceptions, and that makes this a dangerous spot for TCU. Kendre Miller had 153 yards and two TDs in the first meeting, and Max Duggan passed for 280 yards and three TDs. The Horned Frogs cannot fall behind 28-10 this time. There will be anxious moments, but first-year coach Sonny Dykes pushes TCU into the CFP.
Pick: TCU wins 33-30 and COVERS the spread.
- Coastal Carolina at Troy (-9.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
The Chanticleers are a different team without Grayson McCall, and that showed in a 47-7 loss to James Madison in Week 13. Coastal Carolina needs to establish a running game around backup quarterback Jarrett Guest. Troy has rolled to nine straight victories, and running back Kimani Vidal is coming off back-to-back 200-yard games. The line has dipped a little bit. Coastal Carolina keeps it close, but Trojans cap an impressive season in the Sun Belt under first-year coach Jon Sumrall.
Pick: Troy wins 31-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 1 Georgia (-17.5) vs. No. 11 LSU (4 p.m., CBS) in Atlanta
That is a monster line for a conference championship game. The Bulldogs are looking for back-to-back conference championships, and the three-loss Tigers are coming off a disappointing loss at Texas A&M. Georgia is 3-0 ATS when favored by less than 20 points this season, but the Tigers are 2-1 ATS as an underdog. This is Brian Kelly’s first appearance in the SEC championship game, and it has been an impressive year with Jayden Daniels. Georgia’s defense, however, will limit his scrambling opportunities. The Bulldogs barrel toward the No. 1 seed in the CFP with another impressive victory, but this could play out right on the line.
Pick: Georgia wins 38-17 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 22 UCF at No. 19 Tulane (-3.5) (4 p.m., ABC)
These teams played on Nov. 12, and UCF won a 38-31 shootout. Penalties and two costly turnovers were the problem for Tulane in that first matchup. Michael Pratt will stay hot at quarterback, and the shoulder injury to John Rhys Plumlee should make him less of a running threat. Mikey Keene is a capable backup for the Golden Knights, but the Green Wave learn from their mistakes in the first matchup.
Pick: Tulane wins 30-24 and COVERS the spread.
- Fresno State at Boise State (-3.5) (4 p.m., FOX)
This is the fourth time these teams have met in the Mountain West Conference championship game. The Broncos doubled up the Bulldogs 40-20 in the regular-season matchup on Oct. 8. Running back George Holani had 157 rushing yards, and Boise State will feature the running game again. Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener didn’t play in that first matchup because of an ankle injury, and he has 13 TDs and just two interceptions since returning. This matchup will be much closer.
Pick: Boise State wins 31-24 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 2 Michigan (-16.5) vs. Purdue (8 p.m., FOX) in Indianapolis
The Wolverines are back in the Big Ten championship game after an emphatic 45-23 victory against Ohio State. The Boilermakers are first-timers in Indianapolis, and they create an interesting matchup for the Wolverines. These teams haven’t met since 2017. True to their label, Purdue is 3-2 ATS as an underdog with three outright victories. Aidan O’Connell will help the Boilermakers keep it close in the first half, but the Wolverines’ running game – with or without Blake Corum – will wear on Purdue in the second half. The Wolverines were 2-4 ATS in Big Ten play when favored by more than 14 points. Given the line has moved up two points, take the value in the underdog.
Pick: Michigan wins 38-23 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 10 Clemson (-7.5) vs. No. 17 North Carolina (8 p.m., ABC) in Charlotte
Which team gets off the mat first after a disappointing loss on Rivalry Week? North Carolina is on a two-game losing streak, and quarterback Drake Maye has been limited to just one TD pass the last two weeks. D.J. Uiagalelei struggled in the loss to South Carolina with just 99 passing yards. Which quarterback gets back on track first? The Tigers are 7-1 in the ACC championship game under Dabo Swinney. The Tar Heels hang around under Mack Brown, but a late Will Shipley TD run makes the difference.
Pick: Clemson wins 36-29 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
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