Three SEC teams made the top six in the first College Football Playoff rankings, which were released Tuesday.
Could three SEC teams make the CFP when it’s all said and done?
That’s a legitimate question and will prompt catcalls of “SEC Bias,” but the committee did what it usually does and veered from the traditional polls. No. 1 Tennessee is ahead of No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Georgia. No. 6 Alabama is the highest-ranked one-loss team and No. 10 LSU and No. 11 Ole Miss remain in the mix.
The SEC has a one-, two- and even three-team playoff scenario now. Based on the first set of rankings, all of those scenarios are in play.
Tennessee leads one-team scenario (for now)
The Volunteers are No. 1, and that puts more pressure on No. 3 Georgia, the defending national champions, to win their Week 10 matchup at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga. Still, these are the two SEC teams with the cleanest look at the CFP.
Given these rankings, the SEC champion will be a lock for the playoff. It’s just a question of who it will be.
Can we get there? The winner of the Georgia-Tennessee game beats Alabama in the SEC championship game. Ohio State, No. 4 Clemson and No. 7 TCU win out, too. That gives the CFP four unbeaten Power 5 champions, but it doesn’t come without debate. The Tennessee-Georgia loser and No. 5 Michigan are the one-loss teams that miss out. Given the committee ranked the Tigers over the Wolverines, that is their line of thinking.
The Crimson Tide also could be the one-bid SEC team if it wins the league championship game. If the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 conferences produce an unbeaten champion, then that would leave out Georgia and Tennessee. Imagine the backlash from that.
No. 11 Ole Miss could still pull this off if they run the table, and even two-loss No. 10 LSU would have an argument to be the first two-loss team to make the playoff. If Georgia or Tennessee loses in upset fashion to either of these teams in Atlanta, then it’s a good bet they would be left out of the playoff.
Alabama, however, creates the same-old two-team scenario.
How the SEC can get two playoff teams
They’ve done it twice in eight years with Georgia and Alabama. What’s stopping a third time?
Can we get there? Yes, and there are two similar paths. A rematch between Alabama and Tennessee is possible. The Crimson Tide would have to get payback for the 52-49 loss at Neyland Stadium on Oct. 15, and the committee could do what they did with Notre Dame and Clemson in 2020 and put both teams in. All it would take is more Pac-12 cannibalization and a TCU or Clemson loss to get this going.
What about Georgia and Alabama? If Georgia beats Tennessee and Alabama beats Georgia, then that could create a scenario where all three teams finish 11-1. Who would get the playoff bids if two of Ohio State/Michigan, TCU and Clemson go unbeaten? The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide, of course. In this scenario, the Vols would be left out.
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How the SEC can get three playoff teams
The SEC absolutely could make this happen, and it would just take the ACC, Pac-12 and Big 12 contenders collecting two losses.
Can we get there? In this scenario, we’re counting the Big Ten champion being in. Of course, No. 16 Illinois could throw a wrench into that by beating No. 5 Michigan in the regular season or the winner of the Buckeyes-Wolverines matchup in the Big Ten championship game.
The Horned Frogs face the most pressure here. Every other Big 12 team has at least two losses, so TCU cannot afford a regular-season loss before the conference championship game.
Clemson likely will face No. 17 North Carolina in the ACC championship game, but what happens if the Tar Heels pick up another regular-season loss then beat the Tigers, who lose a regular-season game to either Notre Dame or South Carolina.
No. 8 Oregon, No. 9 USC and No. 12 UCLA cannot afford another loss. The Trojans and Bruins play on Nov. 19, the same day as No. 14 Utah and the Ducks. This could be either a really good day – or an elimination day for the conference.
None of the scenarios are impossible, which would open the door for one-loss Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee to get into the CFP. If that happens, the outcry for the 12-team playoff to start next year will be louder than ever.
MORE: What would a 12-team playoff bracket look like?
College Football Playoff quick hits
— Clemson over Michigan makes sense, at least for now. The Tigers’ opponents to this point have a combined record of 37-28. The Wolverines’ opponents have a combined record of 30-36. This might be an affirmation to Michigan’s soft non-conference schedule, though the Tigers’ non-conference opponents to this point are Furman and Louisiana Tech.
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— LSU at No. 10 is a surprise, but it also creates two top-10 matchups within the SEC this weekend, and it’s an elimination game for the Tigers and Crimson Tide at Death Valley. Nobody thought LSU would be in that spot after the disastrous opener against Florida State. Give Brian Kelly some credit here.
— The SEC has five teams in the top 11, but the conference representation is fairly even from there. The ACC and Pac-12 also have five teams apiece, followed by the Big Ten and Big 12 with four teams each. The average ranking per team of each conference: SEC (6.4), Big Ten (9.5), Pac-12 (13.2), Big 12 (15.5) and ACC (16). Keep an eye on how those fluctuate each week.
— The American Athletic Conference champion likely will be headed to the New Year’s Day Six again. No. 19 Tulane and No. 25 UCF are the only Group of 5 teams in the rankings. Coastal Carolina (7-1) is the only other one-loss Group of 5 team as of now.
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