MLB Playoffs Betting Guide: World Series odds, best bets for the postseason

After enduring the grind that is a 162-game regular season, 12-teams have their eyes set on hoisting the Commissioners Trophy in early November as the MLB playoffs get underway on October 7th. MLB debuts its new playoff format that rewards the top-two seeds in both the National League and American League with first-round byes, while the other eight teams are locked into a best-of-three Wild Card series that will produce must-see moments and long-lasting memories.

MORE MLB PLAYOFFS: Full 2022 MLB playoff bracket

As things currently stand, the Los Angeles Dodgers (+300) sit atop the World Series odds board after finishing the regular season with a 111-51 overall record. The reigning American League champion Houston Astros (+380) aren’t far behind as they’ve been just as dominant over a 162-game sample size. Outside of the favorites, there are several sleeper and long-shot candidates who figure to challenge the Astros and Dodgers. Which franchise will put it all together when it matters most and win the 2022 World Series?

Below, we’ll list the current odds to win the World Series per Caesars Sportsbook and provide our best bets and predictions for the next month-plus of postseason baseball.

MLB World Series Odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Best bets to win MLB World Series

Houston Astros +380 (implied probability 20.83 percent)

Houston’s been a juggernaut practically the entire season, and there’s a case to be made for the Astros to be sitting atop the World Series odds board. Houston’s got a real chance to return to the Fall Classic for the fourth time in six years as not many teams in the AL can match their overall stability. Entering the playoffs, Houston’s offense ranks fourth in isolated power (.176 ISO) while striking out just 19.5 percent of the time (second in MLB). The pitching staff, headlined by Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers Jr., has the lowest WHIP (1.09) and ERA (2.90) in the AL.  

A matchup against either the Toronto Blue Jays or Seattle Mariners in the ALDS could be challenging, but the Astros appear to be back on their way to the ALCS. The other side of the AL bracket isn’t too daunting as they’ll likely face the Yankees in the ALCS, but remember the Astros won five of seven games against the Bronx bombers during the regular season. Dating back to October 6th of 2016, Houston’s won 57.5 percent of its postseason games (42-31) which leads the AL over that stretch. Dusty Baker’s due to win his first-ever World Series, and it could very well occur this year.

Atlanta Braves +600 (implied probability 14.29 percent)

Atlanta enters the postseason playing their best baseball at the most crucial time. A wager on the Braves to win the World Series at 6-1 is worth a look considering they could really be the odds-on favorite to win the NL (sorry Dodgers). They’ve been able to overcome injury woes and while some may attribute the Mets losing their lead in the NL East as a typical Mets second-half collapse, it’s been more due to how consistent the Braves have been after a rough beginning to the season.

The Braves are in a great spot to advance to their third-straight NLCS, after drawing either St. Louis Cardinals or Philadelphia in a best-of-five series. Atlanta fared well against both teams in the regular season, winning 11 of 19 games against the Phillies and splitting the regular season series with the Cardinals.

If Atlanta were to then face the Dodgers in the NLCS, Atlanta’s starting rotation has the upper hand against Los Angeles’ and their lineup one through nine is just as lethal as the Dodgers. Atlanta’s got a real shot to be the first franchise to repeat as World Series champs since the Yankees did it in the late 90s.

MLB Wild Card Series Odds

Best MLB Wild Card series bet

Philadelphia Phillies +120 (implied probability 45.45 percent) against the St. Louis Cardinals

While St. Louis has played consistent baseball during the second half of the regular season en route to winning the NL Central by seven games, they get a tough draw having to face the sixth-seeded Phillies in the Wild Card round. Despite Philadelphia having a sub .500 record over the past month, they did enough to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2011.

This series could very well be priced closer to a pick ’em (-110 juice on both sides), but the Cardinals are priced as a -140 favorite due to them possessing home-field advantage as the No. 3 seed in the NL. John Mozeliak made impactful additions at the deadline, and while they are a well-rounded bunch (solid lineup 1-9, reliable rotation and bullpen, excellent defense) great pitching can beat good hitting in the playoffs. 

Philadelphia gets to lean on co-aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in games one and two in the Wild Card round which is a real test for a Cardinals offense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in wRC+ and isolated power (.149 ISO) over the past month. Conversely, Philadelphia sports a 110 wRC+ and .185 ISO over that same stretch. At the very least, Philadelphia has enough to get this to a winner-take-all game three, and at +120 they are a live underdog.

Best prop bets for MLB playoffs

Home run leader: Yordan Alvarez +1000 (implied probability 9.09 percent)

With Houston having the ability to run the table in the AL, Alvarez has a real shot to lead all players in longballs at the end of the postseason. He’s as consistent as it comes in the batter box, slashing .343/.435/.638 over the past month which is pretty much in line with his season numbers of .306/.406/.613. At 10-1, a wager on Air Yordan to hit the most home runs over the next month is enticing, even with the books taking a fairly high hold percentage.

Other considerations: Matt Olson (+1600), Ronald Acuña Jr. (+3000)

Strikeout leader: Justin Verlander +400 (implied probability 20.00 percent)

What Verlander’s been able to do in his age 39 season after missing practically two seasons is other-worldly. Coinciding with Alvarez leading all players with home runs, given the Astros have a real chance to once again represent the AL in the World Series, Verlander’s going to make enough starts and pitch enough innings to rack up a high number of strikeouts.

While he hasn’t racked up nearly as many strikeouts as Gerrit Cole, Verlander makes a case to be the odds-on favorite over Cole with Houston having the upper hand against the Yankees in a potential ALCS matchup. Verlander has averaged 7.83 strikeouts per game over his past six starts and is coming off one of his best starts of the season this past Tuesday (5.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 10 K, 1 BB).

Other considerations: Max Fried (+1800), Framber Valdez (+1800)

World Series exacta: Winner-Atlanta Braves / Runner Up-Houston Astros +1500 (implied probability 6.25 percent)

Yes, it’s fairly chalky to pick the exact same finish as last season, but Atlanta and Houston’s rosters are built for the postseason. Despite the Braves not having home-field advantage in a potential rematch with the Dodgers in the NLCS, their pitching staff’s consistency can result in the Braves winning the NL pennant for a second-straight season. Houston’s just as lethal in the month of October, giving baseball bettors and fans a real shot at a World Series rematch.