Netherlands vs. Argentina prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for World Cup 2022 quarterfinal

A rematch of the 2014 World Cup semifinal sees the Netherlands look to get revenge for elimination as they take on Lionel Messi and Argentina in the quarterfinals of this year’s tournament.

Messi scored his penalty in that 2014 shootout alongside three teammates, helping his team to reach the final, while Ron Vlaar and Wesley Sneijder missed to leave the Dutch relegated to the third-place match. 

While Messi fell short in that 2014 final to Germany, he’ll have visions of grandeur at this year’s tournament. It will be a difficult road, as he’ll first have to get by a Dutch side that’s gone 19 matches unbeaten across all competitions and 11 unbeaten in the World Cup.

Louis van Gaal has confirmed he will depart the Netherlands job at the end of their tournament run, and he’ll be hoping his duties don’t quite come to an end just yet.

MORE: How to watch Netherlands vs Argentina in World Cup quarterfinal play

Netherlands vs. Argentina odds

Lionel Messi makes Argentina a favorite in this match, but at plus odds, indicating the Netherlands have a great chance of sparking an upset here.

Judging by the goal total, there’s an expectation that these teams could repeat the grinder that fans enjoyed back in 2014 when they played to a scoreless draw. The under 2.5 goal total is a massive favorite, while the “no” result on both teams to score is also skewed, though not as much.

A reminder: All moneyline bets in soccer are for regulation only, regardless of competition. If the match requires a winner and goes to extra-time or penalties, a moneyline bet of a regulation draw is successful and the rest of play does not factor in.

Netherlands vs. Argentina: 3 things to know

Netherlands vs. Argentina team news

Aside from the loss of Giorginio Wijnaldum who misses the tournament due to a broken leg, there are no injury issues for the Netherlands as they head into the quarterfinals, a major boost for the side. Nathan Ake, Frenkie de Jong, Matthijs de Ligt, and Teun Koopmeiners are all sitting on yellow cards and would be suspended for a match with another.

There’s a big question around whether Angel Di Maria will be fit for action in this game due to a thigh issue which kept him out of the Round of 16 match against Australia. He returned to training on Tuesday and should be at least available off the bench, but there are questions whether he will start, or whether Angel Correa will take his place on the wing. Papu Gomez sprained his ankle against Australia but is also thought to have recovered. Otherwise, there are no injury concerns for Argentina of the players on the roster, with Gio Lo Celso, Nico Gonzalez, and Joaquin Correa all replaced on the roster before the tournament began.

MORE: Full injury tracker for all 32 teams at the 2022 FIFA World Cup

Netherlands vs. Argentina key stats

• The Netherlands are unbeaten in 19 matches, spanning the entirety of Louis van Gaal’s current stint as manager. Their last defeat came to the Czech Republic in the Euro 2020 Round of 16.
• The Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 11 FIFA World Cup matches, dating back to their defeat to Spain in the 2010 World Cup final. They were eliminated from the 2014 World Cup on penalties by Argentina after a 0-0 draw.
• Lionel Messi is the only Argentina player on this year’s squad who appeared in the 2014 semifinal against the Netherlands, and one of just three players on either side, along with Dutch internationals Stefan de Vrij and Daley Blind.
• Of their nine all-time meetings, Argentina have only won once, coming via a 3-1 win at the 1978 World Cup. In the other eight, the Netherlands won four and they have drawn four.

Netherlands vs. Argentina match facts

• Date: Friday, December 9
• Kickoff Time: 2:00 pm ET / 7:00 pm GMT / 6:00 am AEDT (Sat, Dec. 10)
• Location: Lusail Iconic Stadium
• Official: TBD

Netherlands vs. Argentina prediction

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+220)
• Against the spread lean: Netherlands +0.5 (+105)
• Score prediction: Netherlands 1-1 Argentina

This is a terrible matchup for Argentina, who are a team that do not overwhelm in attack and can be thwarted by a team that takes its chances.

That’s exactly what Netherlands do: excel at snatching their opportunities. The Netherlands have scored eight goals this World Cup on just 4.05 xG, punishing the United States in their Round of 16 match for three goals on just 1.56 xG.

Argentina were stunned in the group stage by Saudi Arabia, who bagged two goals on just three total shots worth a measly 0.15 xG. Here again, against a team that’s vicious in front of net, this could be a trap for Argentina, who could require penalties to advance.

Netherlands vs. Argentina: Best bet

• Pick: Netherlands or tie and under 2.5 goals
• Odds: +135 (BetMGM)

The under is a great selection in this match, but with such skewed odds, it’s worthless to leave it on its own. Thus, we add a Netherlands double chance.

As mentioned above, this Dutch side is spectacular at finishing its chances, and will only need one or two opportunities in front of net to strike. Argentina, meanwhile, create lots of half-chances but struggle to finish them. While that works well against a team that can’t capitalize on scraps, this Dutch side will do just fine making the most of their chances.

While neutral fans will be rooting for Lionel Messi to advance in this match, the opponent is one who could spark an upset result. It might only be a draw, but the Netherlands will fancy their chances on penalties.

Netherlands vs. Argentina prop bet

• Pick: Half with most goals — 2H
• Odds: +100 (BetMGM)

This World Cup has seen goalscoring skewed to the second half more than usual, and that’s likely to be no different in this game.

Both these teams have been second-half performers throughout the tournament. Argentina have put up 3.16 xG in the first half while conceding just 0.57 xGA, while after the break they open up for 4.8 xG and 0.76 xGA. The Netherlands, meanwhile, have a high disparity, putting together 1.36 xG and 1.12 xGA in the opening 45 minutes but jumping to 2.7 xG and 3.08 xGA after the break. 

What’s more, the deadly Dutch finishing that’s become a trademark of their World Cup performance has been almost exclusively relegated to the second half. They have actually somehow underperformed their expected goals in the first half, with 1.36 xG compared to 1.13 xGOT, putting up four goals, indicating abysmal goalkeeping has helped them significantly. After halftime, however, they explode to life in front of goal, 

Netherlands vs. Argentina flier bet

• Pick: Match to go to a penalty shootout
• Odds: +440 (FanDuel)

Why can’t history repeat itself? These two teams played to a cagey, drab scoreless draw eight years ago, and not. much seems to have changed tactically to suggest anything different.

It does seem possible that these teams could find the back of the net, but their last two competitive meetings — at the 2006 and 2014 World Cups — both ended in scoreless draws. Of the last six meetings between these two nations, they have drawn four, with only six goals combined between the two sides in those games, plus three scoreless draws.

Netherlands vs. Argentina live stream, TV channel

This quarterfinal clash will be played at Lusail Stadium. Here’s how you can watch all the action in some of the major global territories.

MORE: Watch every World Cup match live with fuboTV (U.S.-only free trial)