NFL MVP odds 2022: Favorites, sleepers, long shots to win Most Valuable Player

The NFL’s MVP award has been synonymous with the best quarterback in the league over the past decade and a half. The previous 15 MVP award winners all played QB, with the last non-QB to win the award being San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. Coincidentally, the top-15 players in the 2022 NFL MVP odds are all quarterbacks, too.

It’s getting more and more difficult for oddsmakers and the betting public to make a case for a non-QB to win the MVP. There are some decent sleeper candidates, but your money is almost always better spent on a signal-caller.

Below, we’ll break down a couple of favorites, sleepers, and long shots who provide betting value for the 2022 NFL MVP award.

MORE NFL BETTING: Best Bets for 2022 | Every team’s win total O/U pick

NFL MVP odds 2022: Top 35

All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

NFL MVP odds 2022: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes among favorites

Josh Allen, QB, Bills +700 (implied probability 12.50 percent)

Allen headlines the preseason list as the odds-on favorite to win the MVP, coinciding with the Bills sitting atop the Super Bowl odds board. The fifth-year QB has put forth MVP-caliber seasons in the past two years but hasn’t been able to beat out Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers losing his offensive coordinator, QB coach, and top WR, there’s a chance he takes a step back this season, giving Allen a real opportunity to win his first-ever MVP.

He’s thrown for at least 4,400 yards in back-to-back seasons with a respectable TD-to-INT rate and yards-per-attempt average. Allen’s pop in the running game (763 rushing yards in 2021) adds another element to his game that defenses have to worry about on a weekly basis.

If you’re considering betting the Bills to win the Super Bowl at around +600, it could also be worthwhile to bet Allen to win MVP at +700. An AFC East title coupled with a top seed in the playoffs could be enough to give Allen the upper hand. You’d also be able to cash your ticket a week before Super Bowl LVII without having to sweat out the Big Game.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs +800 (implied probability 11.11 percent)

Mahomes deserves to have his name near the top of the odds board, as he’s done nothing but produce on a year-in and year-out basis. We’ve gotten so accustomed to an elite output from him that even when he puts up video game numbers, he’s meeting expectations.

Despite that, 2022 is a year for Mahomes to really show what he’s made of. He’s now tasked with having a brand new receiving corps following the departures of Tyreek Hill, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle, along with the AFC West projected to be the most competitive division.

If Mahomes is able to lead Kansas City to its seventh straight AFC West title while throwing for 5,000 yards, a second MVP trophy is not out of the equation.

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NFL MVP odds 2022-23: Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr stand out as value sleepers

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles +3000 (implied probability 3.23 percent)

Hurts could sneak up the odds board as the season progresses, as 2022 looks to be his true breakout season. A higher passing yard and touchdown output along with the Eagles winning the NFC East could result in Hurts contending for MVP honors. 

Hurts led all QBs in rushing attempts (140), yards (782), and TDs (10) in ’21, and while it would be nice to see him replicate those numbers, it would be better if he dialed back the rushing numbers by throwing for 4,000 yards and 20-plus TDs. At 30-1, there’s a chance his odds decrease throughout the season if Philadelphia sits atop the NFC East standings. 

Derek Carr, QB, Raiders +3000 (implied probability 3.23 percent)

Making a case for Carr to win MVP goes along with the other QBs on this list. You need to win your division and secure a high seed in the playoffs to be in consideration. While Carr and the Raiders are projected to finish last in the AFC West, it’s hard to really buy into a last-place finish for an offense as talented as Las Vegas’s.

Yes, somebody has to finish last in the AFC West, but a positive turnover margin and one-score game luck could vault the Raiders into first place at the end of the regular season. The difference between making the playoffs and sitting at home in January isn’t that big, and if Carr continues to take care of the football and leads the Raiders to a solid regular season finish, he could realistically contend for MVP honors.

NFL MVP odds 2022-23: Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson among long shots

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers +12500 (implied probability 0.79 percent)

If a QB fails to win the MVP award for the first time since 2006, it could be as a result of a dominant season from Christian McCaffrey. Yes, we know he’s almost a “lock” to get injured, but if he remains healthy by playing all 17 games and somehow the Panthers either secure a wild card spot or win the NFC South, CMC could take home MVP honors.

He’s a long shot for a reason — and we’re not saying any of this will happen, as his odds to win MVP implies less than a one-percent chance this actually happens — but he’s too talented to be completely counted out.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings +15000 (implied probability 0.66 percent)

Similar to McCaffrey, an other-worldly 2022 regular season where Jefferson racks up 2,000-plus receiving yards and the Vikings win the NFC North will put the stud third-year receiver in contention. We know Jefferson is in line for a big season now that he’s in a more pass-friendly offensive scheme, and with a 150-1 price tag, there’s a chance he ends the season lower than this current price.