Which home underdogs are going to come through in Week 1 of the NFL season?
That’s the big question knowing that 10 home teams are underdogs, starting with the defending Super Bowl champion in the Thursday Night Football opener. The Bills, a popular pick to win Super Bowl LVII, are slight favorites against the Rams in what should be a thrilling quarterback duel between Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford.
Which home underdogs are interesting? The Vikings could be a trendy pick against the Packers in a battle of NFC North teams. The Lions, this year’s Hard Knocks superstars, are trying to start the season off with a victory against the Eagles. Those are a few we have an eye on.
Each week, SN will pick the NFL games straight up and against the spread. Our record last season was 172-96-1; a winning percentage of .641. Here are our straight-up picks for Week 1 (lines courtesy of Caesars):
MORE: SN’s predictions for entire 2022 season, Super Bowl 57 pick
NFL picks, predictions for Week 1
- Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
The defending Super Bowl champion is 14-3 S/U in the NFL Kickoff Game. The Bills are “all-in” on a Super Bowl run, but the Rams are still more than talented enough to make a run at a repeat. The Rams are at home, and Matthew Stafford shakes off any doubts about a hangover season with a game-winning TD drive, complete with a TD pass to Cooper Kupp. Take the home underdog.
Pick: Rams 28, Bills 24
- San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m, FOX
Let the Trey Lance era begin. Lance settles in behind a strong running game led by Eli Mitchell with Deebo Samuel mixed in against the Bears’ run defense, which will improve under new coach Matt Eberflus. Justin Fields has trouble against the 49ers’ pass rush, led by fellow former Buckeye Nick Bosa. Still a chance for a back-door cover here.
Pick: 49ers 24, Bears 17
- New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m, FOX
Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, the top two picks in the 2015 NFL Draft, are together again. It’s a new era for the Saints with Dennis Allen as head coach, too. The Saints have won the last four at Atlanta by an average of seven points per game. We’re tempted to pull the upset here, but it’s tough to go against that trend.
Pick: Saints 24, Falcons 23
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m, FOX
The Bengals have a chance to beat the rival Steelers for the sixth straight time; something that hasn’t happened since a six-game streak from 1988-90. That’s when Cincinnati was the better team with Boomer Esiason. Guess what? The Bengals are the better team with Joe Burrow.
Pick: Bengals 30, Steelers 20
- Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m, FOX
The Lions haven’t won their opener since 2017, but the opportunity for Dan Campbell to get the second season off on the right foot is there. Philadelphia was 6-1 S/U as a favorite last season, and they made some solid additions on defense. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown combines for a strong connection early, and the Eagles escape Ford Field with a victory.
Pick: Eagles 29, Lions 26
- New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m, CBS
It’s the battle of the Alabama QBs. Tua Tagovailoa has a pair of speedy receivers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and the Patriots enter their second year with Mac Jones. The Patriots have lost four of their last five in Miami, and there is a lot of uncertainty around the offense. That’s why this is the upset nobody sees coming in Week 1. Well, Bill Belichick does.
Pick: Patriots 24, Dolphins 20
- Baltimore Ravens (-7) at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m, CBS
The Joe Flacco revenge game is here. The Jets quarterback will get a shot at his old team, and New York has a few impressive rookies in Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner. Lamar Jackson, however, is in prove-it mode around an offense that has enough playmakers to make a run in the AFC. Baltimore has won nine of the last meetings against the Jets.
Pick: Ravens 30, Jets 22
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m, FOX
The Carson Wentz era begins in Washington, but Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson has some experience against the Commanders from his Philadelphia days. That means a tight game on both sides, and Washington won’t have Chase Young in this game. This one could be a field goal at the buzzer, and we’ll stick with the home team.
Pick: Commanders 24, Jaguars 21
- Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m, CBS
The Baker Mayfield Bowl is here. The Browns are relying on Jacoby Brissett through the Deshaun Watson suspension, and the potential headlines if Mayfield beats his former team will be off the charts. Nick Chubb, however, will lead a ground-heavy attack and Myles Garrett comes up with the strip sack in crunch time. Cleveland holds off the potential embarrassment, but not by much.
Pick: Browns 22, Panthers 20
- Indianapolis Colts (-8) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m, CBS
The Texans open the Lovie Smith era, and it’s going to be a rebuild. Dameon Pierce will impress in spots, the Colts – led by veteran quarterback Matt Ryan – flex as a potential Super Bowl contender at their AFC South rival’s expense. The Colts are 8-5 as the away favorite under Frank Reich.
Pick: Colts 28, Texans 21
- New York Giants at Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m, FOX
The Giants open the Brian Daboll era, and the offense needs to be better after averaging 15.2 points per game last season. Saquon Barkley is in a prove-it year, but yards will be tough against the Titans’ defense. Tennessee controls the home opener around Ryan Tannehill and a healthy Derrick Henry.
Pick: Titans 28, Giants 20
- Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 4:25 p.m, FOX
This is a tough one to pick. Aaron Rodgers has an unproven group of receivers at U.S. Bank Stadium, which is one of the tougher venues. The Vikings have a new coach in Kevin O’Connell, and Kirk Cousins will be aggressive with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The Packers are 2-4 in their last six trips to Minnesota. This won’t be easy, but we’ll trust Rodgers to be better than last year’s Week 1 disaster.
Pick: Packers 28, Vikings 22
- Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m, CBS
The Patrick Mahomes-Kliff Kingsbury connection is a narrative, but the focus will shift toward Kyler Murray, who was the headlines for most of the offseason. How will he fare without DeAndre Hopkins? How will Mahomes look without Tyreek Hill? The Chiefs are 12-1 S/U against the NFC teams in the regular season the last three seasons. Perhaps that is why the line has bumped up two points.
Pick: Chiefs 33, Cardinals 24
- Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m, CBS
This was a wild game in Week 18 last season, and these are two AFC West contenders. The Raiders have split the last eight road meetings against the Chargers, and new coach Josh McDaniels brings a new element to the rivalry. Look for Derek Carr to stay comfortable with Davante Adams and Darren Waller, but the Raiders have to keep the ground game going late to preserve the victory. The Chargers were 5-4 at home last season.
Pick: Raiders 27, Chargers 24
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
This line dropped a half point toward the Cowboys, who pushed the Buccaneers last year in Week 1 in a 31-29 shootout. Tom Brady returned from retirement, and at 45 years old he will be the focus against Dallas’ defense led by Micah Parsons. This game could play out a lot like the last one, but we’re not done betting on Brady in the clutch yet.
Pick: Buccaneers 31, Cowboys 27
- Denver Broncos (-6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN/ABC
Russell Wilson won’t have to wait long to face his former team. The Broncos have a talented, young team, too, and the Seahawks have a tenuous quarterback situation at best. Seattle ranked 31st in pass defense last season. Wilson will cap Week 1 with a memorable MNF performance.
Pick: Broncos 30, Seahawks 20
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