PSG vs. Juventus best bets, odds, lines, picks, and expert predictions for Champions League group stage 2022/23

One of the marquee matchups of the Champions League group stage opening slate pits European giants PSG and Juventus against one another, with the first meeting on Tuesday at Parc des Princes.

The match presents the first true test of new PSG manager Christophe Galtier, who took over the Parisian soap opera in the summer. Dominating Ligue 1 play despite locker room adversity, Galtier must now navigate the Champions League knowing his employers expect to hoist a trophy at the end of the season.

Champions League glory has evaded PSG for the entirety of the Qatari ownership era. The club reached the finals in 2020, only to fall to Bayern Munich. Otherwise, they’ve only reached the semifinals once, bounced in the Round of 16 four times and the quarterfinals four times since 2012.

Juventus also crave European silverware, having failed to progress past the quarterfinals since their finals loss to Real Madrid in 2017. Since hoisting Europe’s greatest prize in 1996, Juventus have lost five consecutive finals and are at the forefront of the Italian struggles in the Champions League over the past decade.

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PSG vs. Juventus betting odds

PSG are expected to win, but figuring out by what margin and what game flow is a far more difficult task. The French club is favored heavily on the moneyline, while the 1.5 goal spread is considered nearly even.

The both teams to score indicator is nearly even in both directions, while the total sits at right around 3.0 goals.

A closer look shows that PSG are given +113 odds (Caesars) to keep a clean sheet, meaning that oddsmakers still expect the Italian side to provide an attacking threat.

PSG vs. Juventus prediction

While it’s clear that Ligue 1 does not possess the same weekly challenge that Serie A can, the league form of these two teams gives an indication of how the match should play out.

PSG’s attacking three are in incredible form. Neymar is at the forefront, with an insane seven goals and six assists through just 455 league minutes, both which put the Brazilian atop the Ligue 1 charts. Lionel Messi is also in great creative form, with three goals and six assists of his own and looking revived from last year’s struggles. Kylian Mbappe, meanwhile, has seven goals leading the PSG line.

Juventus, meanwhile, strike a different chord. They’ve been held to a draw in three of their five league matches thus far, collecting just a single point against Fiorentina, Roma, and Sampdoria. The club has lacked creativity in the final third, with just 6.52 xG (expected goals) across the five matches, sitting Juve eighth in Serie A, miles behind the likes of Napoli, Inter, and AC Milan.

There’s not enough consistency from Juventus to present PSG a challenge at this stage in the season. It’s won’t be the same cakewalk for PSG as in Ligue 1 play, but the match will ultimately swing towards the hosts after enough poking and prodding.

Moneyline lean: PSG (-300 on Caesars)
Against the Spread lean: PSG -1.5 goals (-105 on Caesars)

Scoreline prediction: PSG 2-0 Juventus

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PSG vs. Juventus best bets & expert analysis

PSG vs. Juventus best bet

Many may still have the sour taste of Lionel Messi’s first season at PSG in their mouths, but early signs in the 2022/23 campaign indicate a revitalization.

Lionel Messi’s numbers are once again off the charts. With Neymar and Mbappe both shouldering the goalscoring weight at PSG, Messi is instead tasked with the majority of the team’s creativity. His xGbuildup/90, which indicates the total expected goals of all moves he’s involved in across a 90-minute base, sits at 0.76, which would be by far the highest it’s been across his career in league play since the data collected began in 2014. The only season that comes remotely close is the 0.65 xGbuildup/90 mark from 2017/18.

2021/22 Ligue 1:
2,155 mins, 9.88 xG, 8.68 xA, 6 goals, 13 assists, 0.11 xG/shot, 13.8 xA/KP

2022/23 Ligue 1:
447 mins, 4.20 xG, 2.75 xA, 3 goals, 4 assists, 0.19 xG/shot, 0.20 xA/KP

Reports of Lionel Messi’s demise have been greatly exaggerated

— Kyle Bonn (@the_bonnfire) September 3, 2022

The above tweet came prior to the PSG win over Nantes where he grabbed yet another assist. The Argentine superstar isn’t what he once was, and never will be, but he’s back to being one of the world’s best players, at least according to the early-season numbers.

If you’re feeling extra spicy, you can get Messi to assist 2+ goals at +1000, which is a great flier, but for our official pick, we’ll stick to just one.

Pick: Lionel Messi to assist a goal anytime (+190 on Caesars)

Pick: Neymar at least 1 shot on target (-118 on Caesars)

PSG vs. Juventus prop: Second-half spread

While Juventus may potentially start well in the match, it won’t last, and PSG should take control after halftime.

This season in five Serie A matches, Juventus have drawn twice after scoring first and then blowing the lead. Those are the only two goals that Juve have conceded this season, but they cost four points.

Going back to last season’s Champions League, Juventus conceded four goals to Villarreal in their Round of 16 defeat, and all four came after halftime across both legs — one in the opening match in the 1-1 draw after Vlahovic had put Juve ahead in the first minute, and the other three all coming after the 75th minute of the eventual 3-0 defeat at home in the second leg. In the 4-0 group stage loss to Chelsea last season, one of only two group stage matches that Juve conceded a goal, three of the four goals came after halftime.

Down the stretch of league play last year, Juventus profiled the same. In the final three matchdays of the season last year, Juventus: blew a 1-0 lead to lose 2-1 to Genoa on goals in the final five minutes, drew 2-2 on the season’s penultimate matchday to Lazio after blowing a 2-0 lead in the second half, and lost 2-0 on the final day of the year to Fiorentina on goals in stoppage time of both halves.

This is who Juventus are, so back PSG in the second half.

Prop kicker: PSG -1 in 2nd half (+225)

PSG vs. Juventus prop flier: First goalscorer

While PSG are likely to finish with all three points, Juventus and Dusan Vlahovic are known for their hot starts.

In addition to the aforementioned numbers regarding Juve’s ability to start well and cough up leads in Serie A this season, there are other indicators that Juve could get off to a good start before fading.

Dusan Vlahovic only has two career Champions League appearances, but he scored in one, on the road at Villarreal last season. The lead was snatched in the first minute before Juve, per usual, coughed it up in a 1-1 draw.

This season, Vlahovic has scored in three of his four Serie A appearances. Two of those were the first goal of the match, while the other two came in the season-opening 3-0 win over Sassuolo after Di Maria opened the scoring.

Prop flier: Dusan Vlahovic first goalscorer (+850 on Caesars)