Soccer predictions, best bets today: Betting tips, expert picks for games on Monday, October 24

The weekend action was entertaining, but there’s a fresh slate of matches on Monday and the stakes are high even though we’re only in October.

West Ham expect to be competing for European places in the Premier League, and not relegation. A win at home against a Bournemouth side above the Hammers in the table is a must if they’re going to begin their climb out of the bottom half.

With six matches left in the Brasileirao campaign, both Fortaleza and vaunted Atletico Mineiro are chasing a berth in next season’s Copa Libertadores group stage. But both have catching up to do and for that reason both will be eyeing three points when they meet at the Arena Castelao.

And in Spain, both Celta Vigo and Getafe meet in a match with points in the relegation battle up for grabs. The two clubs have a key stretch of games ahead against clubs that are deemed to be their equal. It starts with their head-to-head at the Balaidos.

Check out all our best bets below.

The Sporting News soccer betting guide


West Ham vs. Bournemouth prediction, best bet

  • Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals
  • Odds: -120 (Caesars)
  • Prediction (Win/Draw): Draw

Bournemouth stink at creating chances, with the lowest xG total in the Premier League. West Ham stink at finishing chances, with a -6.70 xG to goals scored differential, second-worst in the Premier League behind only Wolves. With West Ham missing an injured Lucas Paqueta, this is a chance for Bournemouth to pick up points, and goals should be at a premium. — Kyle Bonn


Fortaleza vs. Atletico Mineiro prediction, best bet

  • Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals
  • Odds: +140 (on Caesars)
  • Prediction (Win/Draw): Fortaleza to win

Fortaleza are proficient at conceding possession and hitting on the counter, and are excellent at home. Athletico Minero, meanwhile, love to possess the ball and create chances but struggle to provide the finishing touch. With enough chances, both sides should be able to strike for enough goals to trigger the over in a critical match as both teams chase a Copa Libertadores place. — Kyle Bonn


Celta Vigo vs Getafe prediction, best bet

  • Best Bet: Getafe double chance (win or draw)
  • Odds: +101
  • Prediction (Win/Draw): Draw

These two teams have been headed in very different directions in recent matches: Getafe are 2W-2L-2D in their last six, while Celta have been in a freefall at 1W-5L-0D in the same span, raising doubts about the future of manager Eduardo ‘Chacho’ Coudet.

Some would point out that Celta’s rough stretch has been a product of the opponents faced — top-half clubs like Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, and Real Sociedad. But the most recent 4-1 loss against relegation candidate Real Valladolid was the latest sign that Celta may just not have a squad that’s up to snuff this year.

Coudet is expected to make more changes to the Celta lineup, and what’s most concerning is that they’ve given up 14 goals on 7.8 expected goals allowed, and on the other end they only have four goals of their own to show for 7.7 expected goals in their last six games. That’s not just down to bad luck. There are deficiencies on both sides of the ball

Getafe have the better players in most positions, and as the road team they’ll be playing without the pressure that Celta and its coach will be feeling on this day. They’ll need to weather an early storm, but their five-back system should help them survive it. All in all, the Getafe double chance at even money is too attractive to pass up. — Simon Borg


Cremonese vs. Sampdoria prediction, best bet

  • Best Bet: Sampdoria draw no bet
  • Odds: +110
  • Prediction (Win/Draw):Sampdoria

It’s a matchup between the two worst teams in Italy’s Serie A and both are still looking for their first win of the campaign. This direct confrontation is arguably one of the best opportunities either is going to have to taste victory.

It’s still early under new head coach in Dejan Stankovic, but if it’s not for the occasional inventive play from one of their veteran forwards, Sampdoria struggle to create chances. So it’s clear that their formula moving forward will have to rely on airtight defending and hoping for that big play to come through.

They’ll probably feel confident that this game plan could work against promoted side Cremonese who leak goals everywhere, conceding in all but one of their matches this season. If Samp can find the net — and they arguably have the better set of attackers — they’re a good bet to pull off a road result. — Simon Borg


Yesterday’s picks

On a last-minute addition to the slate, Kyle hit big in the Premier League as Fulham topped Leeds in a high-scoring match. The absence of Tyler Adams made the difference as Fulham took advantage of a haphazard Leeds side. However, Barcelona continued their resurgence with an onslaught of goals against Athletic Club, hitting the over themselves within the opening 22 minutes.

Napoli managed to pull out a victory on a day when Jose Mourinho devised a solid plan to shut down Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. In an ugly game, Victor Osimhen provided a second-half winner and Roma had no answer.

For Simon, Newcastle topped Spurs to pull into the Premier League’s top four, but a consolation goal for Harry Kane means that both teams found the back of the net.

Picks ✔️ or ❌
Fulham to win & BTTS
(Bonn, +375)
✔️
Barcelona vs. Athletic under 2.5 goals
(Bonn, +120)
Napoli to win vs. Roma
(Bonn, +135)
✔️
Kvaratskhelia anytime assist
(Bonn, +500)
Austin FC vs FC Dallas 2H highest-scoring half
(Borg, -101)
Tottenham vs Newcastle BTTS – NO
(Borg, +105)
Lazio draw no bet
(Borg, +170)
✔️
Monterrey vs. Pachuca BTTS – YES
(Borg, -135)

Soccer best bets records

Records below compiled since the first edition of this post on Monday, October 3.

  Kyle Bonn Simon Borg
Best Bets
(Won-Lost-Push)
36.4%
(20-34-1)
28.1%
(9-22-1)
Total Units
(+ Won / – Lost)
-3.92 -11.49
Match Predictions
(Correct picks)
54.0%
(27 of 50)
50.0%
(16 of 32)
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