Why six teams passed on Josh Allen in the 2018 NFL Draft, gifting Bills a star QB

The boom definitely outweighed the bust with Josh Allen.

The 2018 NFL Draft was supposed to play host to one of the great quarterback classes in recent memory. The key word here was “supposed to.” Of the five first-round quarterbacks taken, only two remain with the teams that drafted them, and both are bona fide MVP candidates: Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson.

Allen, though, was arguably the biggest question mark of the 2018 draft. While he had all the physical traits that would make scouts and front offices drool, his red flags were equally as noticeable, and many pegged him as the ultimate “boom or bust” prospect in the draft.

Buffalo took a gamble and hit the jackpot with Allen, who will be sticking around in Orchard Park for years to come. The passer finished second in MVP voting in 2020, and in 2021, followed up with an equally impressive campaign.

MORE: NFL picks, predictions Week 1 — Do Bills have a shot?

Here’s why Allen was something of a big risk, and why six teams in 2018 ultimately passed on him:

Josh Allen scouting report

Coming out of Wyoming, there were two major knocks on Allen’s college game: the competition he faced and his accuracy.

There’s nothing he can do to control his competition — and it’s generally a very overstated criticism of college players, anyway — but the accuracy was a far bigger concern.

In his final year at Wyoming, Allen posted a 56.3 percent completion rate, and across all three years at the school he was at 56.2 percent. That’s not exactly encouraging stuff for the next level. 

In addition to Allen’s accuracy, other mechanical aspects of his game were dissected: His footwork and ability to harness his unique arm talent also plagued some scouts. Ultimately, though, Allen’s distinctive physical traits were far too appetizing for NFL franchises, hence his first-round stock.

The Bills did everything they could to bolster Allen’s skillset, too. Consider it the perfect storm in the NFL.

2018 NFL Draft

In all, six players were drafted before Josh Allen went to the Bills. Buffalo would trade up from No. 12 overall to No. 7 (with Tampa Bay) to select Allen. 

No. 1, QB Baker Mayfield, Browns: Mayfield captured Cleveland’s hearts with both his attitude and his play entering the 2018 NFL Draft. Mayfield was coming off a Heisman-winning season with Oklahoma, too, almost cementing his status at the top of the draft. Now, Mayfield is looking at a prove-it year with the Panthers, on the last year of his rookie deal.

No. 2, RB Saquon Barkley, Giants: Former general manager Dave Gettleman made it clear he was looking for a gold jacket-type player with the No. 2 overall selection, and opted to take the Penn State running back. While Barkley was heralded as a “generational” talent, injuries and inconsistencies have made him something of a question mark in his fifth year in the league. Also, there’s a reason that Gettleman is the “former general manager.”

No. 3, QB Sam Darnold, Jets: While Darnold was considered by some to be the most NFL-ready passer in the 2018 draft, it didn’t work out that way for him or New York. Darnold dealt with organizational turmoil throughout his tenure and was eventually traded to the Panthers following a brutal 2020 season with the Jets.

No. 4, CB Denzel Ward, Browns: The second of Cleveland’s two top-five picks, Ward has emerged as an above-average cornerback and recently signed a big-money extension to stay with Cleveland.

No. 5, DE Bradley Chubb, Broncos: Chubb was the best pass rusher in the 2018 draft, and pairing him with Von Miller made sense. That said, Denver entered the 2018 season by signing Case Keenum to a big-money deal, and opted to pass on a passer following the ill-fated Paxton Lynch experiment. Chubb is entering the final year of his contract, and has been an above-average pass rusher for Denver.

No. 6, G Quenton Nelson, Colts: Nelson was heralded as the top player in the draft, but given his positional value, some were puzzled at the decision to take him top 10. The team was set at passer, though, with Andrew Luck embedded at QB.

Here’s how the first round shook out in its entirety (bolded are first-round QBs):