Alright, folks, listen up! The Strait of Hormuz is acting all sorts of ‘wild’ these days. Despite a major surge in attacks on ships, it looks like ‘Hormuz Oil Exports’ from the Gulf have seriously ramped up, according to maritime experts and trackers. We’re talking about Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, hitting over 81 percent of pre-war levels in September. And get this, crude exports from the wider Middle East actually exceeded pre-war levels on fourteen separate days that month, as reported by maritime intelligence firm Kpler. It’s a straight-up paradox: more oil is moving, but the risks are higher than ever, making the whole situation feel pretty ‘sketchy’.
This recovery hasn’t been smooth sailing, no cap. Shipping companies are facing elevated freight, insurance, and security costs. The attacks aren’t just minor bumps; on Tuesday, a Panama-flagged tanker was hit by an unknown projectile while cruising through the Strait, leaving twelve crew members injured, India’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed. Then there was the Kuwaiti-flagged VLCC MT Kazimah III, which caught fire on October 1 after being struck, thankfully with all five staff rescued. Just a few days later, on October 4, the Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi took a hit northeast of Oman’s Jazirat Umm al-Fayarin, damaging its engine room. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency has been reporting at least one attack a day since October 2, including incidents in the Gulf of Aden where Iran-backed Houthis are reportedly targeting Saudi-linked shipping.
Before the US-Israel war on Iran kicked off on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz was handling about 125 large commercial vessels daily, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies. That’s a huge chunk of the world’s energy! After the conflict began, Iran effectively closed the strait in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks, while Washington kept up a blockade on Iranian ports. So, for real, how are ships moving through this critical choke point now, and how long can producers maintain this increased flow when ships are getting harassed and attacked?
Despite the dangerous climate, the sheer volume of oil moving is impressive. Provisional data from Kpler showed the seven-day moving average for Middle East crude exports hitting 18.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by September 30, which actually tops the average of 18 million bpd from the twelve months before the war. Separately, Vortexa estimated the fourteen-day moving average for crude and condensate exports reached 18.6 million bpd. But here’s the kicker: not all that oil is actually traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler estimates that around 40 percent of these oil exports are now bypassing the strait entirely.
The ability to keep these ‘Hormuz Oil Exports’ pumping is thanks to some serious strategic maneuvering. Saudi Arabia, for example, has been making effective use of its East-West pipeline, which shuttles oil from fields in the east of the country all the way to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea in the west. Another key method is ship-to-ship transfers. This is where smaller ‘shuttle boats,’ often operating with their transponders turned off — which, let’s be honest, is kinda ‘sketchy’ for tracking purposes — ferry oil through the Strait and then offload their cargo onto larger tankers waiting beyond the strait’s immediate danger zone.
So, is this whole operation sustainable? Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told Al Jazeera that current flows could hold up as long as these alternative routes remain secure. However, even these bypass systems aren’t immune. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has seen temporary shutdowns due to drone strikes, like those launched by Iran-backed groups in Iraq back in September. Varga cautioned that the flow is sustainable only ‘unless attacks on ships and shipping lanes or on the pipeline resume,’ which he says doesn’t seem ‘imminent at the moment but could happen at any time if geopolitical tensions flare up.’
Maintaining these high export levels is also putting a significant strain on the global shipping system. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, highlighted to Al Jazeera that the ‘shuttle system’ in the Gulf, while doing ‘wonders’ for oil movement, demands ‘plenty of ships.’ This demand has jacked up freight costs and reduced tanker availability in other regions, forcing Asian buyers to source crude from further away. Beauchamp summed it up: ‘Previously a supply story, this is now one about the underlying mechanics of shipping. Ships don’t get built overnight.’ It’s giving us a whole new set of logistics challenges that ‘hits different’ from what we usually see.
The financial ripple effects are clear as day. Oil prices remain comparatively high; Brent crude is hovering just under $100 a barrel, a stark contrast to the roughly $72 before the war started. US West Texas Intermediate crude also saw a dip but remains elevated. These higher shipping and insurance costs are a big factor. Last week, the Group of Seven (G7) announced plans to release up to 100 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to try and cool prices. But as Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned at a London conference, the disruption could last well beyond any reopening of Hormuz. He noted nearly three billion barrels of oil supply have been lost since February, and rebuilding depleted inventories could take up to two years. The system is ‘already straining,’ he said, periodt.
Ultimately, a long-term solution hinges on peace. Varga emphasized that ‘only a sustainable and credible peace deal between the US and Iran and the subsequent permanent and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would re-establish the pre-conflict status quo.’ Until then, the world’s energy supply will keep navigating a ‘sketchy’ and unpredictable path through one of its most vital corridors.
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Adrian Velk is a global affairs journalist focused on breaking news, geopolitics, and societal trends. With a sharp eye for detail and a commitment to accuracy, he delivers timely reporting that helps readers understand the fast-moving world around them. His work blends factual depth with clear storytelling, making complex events accessible to a broad audience.
